| Date | Prior | Current | Rating | |
| NFIB Small Business Optimism M/M | Mar-20 | 104.50 | 96.40 | C- |
| RedBook W/W | 4/4/2020 | 6.30% | 5.30% | C |
| Job Openings (JOLTS) M/M | Feb-20 | 6.953M | 6.882M | C |
| Consumer Sentiment M/M | Apr-20 | 89.10 | 71.00 | C- |
| RedBook W/W 1 | 4/4/2020 | 6.30% | 5.30% | C |
| RedBook W/W 2 | 4/11/2020 | 5.30% | -2.00% | C- |
| Jobless Claims W/W 1 | 4/4/2020 | 6,648K | 6608K | F+ |
| Jobless Claims W/W 2 | 4/11/2020 | 6608K | 5245K | F+ |
| Retail Sales M/M | Apr-20 | -0.50 | -8.70 | C- |
| Empire State Mfg M/M | Apr-20 | -21.5 | -78.2 | D+ |
| Philly Fed Bus Outlook M/M | Apr-20 | -12.7 | -56.6 | D- |
| Industrial Production M/M | Mar-20 | 0.5 | -5.4 | C- |
| Housing Market Index M/M | Apr-20 | 72 | 30 | D |
| Housing Starts M/M | Mar-20 | 1.599M | 1.216M | C- |
| Housing Permits M/M | Mar-20 | 1.464M | 1.353M | C- |
| Leading Indicators M/M | Mar-20 | 0.1 | -6.7 | D- |
As the reports catch up, the number look worse and worse, and I doubt anyone is surprised.
Leading Indicators just came out with the worst reading in the history of the metric. The DOW shed 200 point right after it's release tho it remains positive on hopes of reopening and promising treatment data. I went with a D- to leave room to the downside. Housing Permits have a strong impact and I think they will get worse before they get better.
Retail is finally taking a major hit which may be the worst news we've seen so far. Consumer Sentiment is showing why with a drop to 71.
Small Business Optimism took a hit tho remains stronger than I would have expected. Stimulus Checks?
Industrial Production, Empire State and Philly Fed all took a significant hit.
Jobless Claims have improved but it's hard to look at 5+ million as good news, even when compared to 6+ million.
Housing Numbers (Starts/Permits) saw a reduction but the Housing Market Index, which is really a survey of builders came in with the lowest reading I've ever seen @ 30, suggesting we'll see much worse in the base housing numbers.
I'm of the opinion that we have not yet seen long term effects on the overall economy, but possibly a few more weeks like this, certainly as month, and we will be in a hole that will take some serious climbing to escape. Based on that. I'll go with an overall D- and hope I am not being too optimistic.
Thanks very much Tim for all the work that took!
And on a Friday morning. Have you ever posted this on a Friday before?
Maybe, with the shutdowns, Friday's are like Saturdays to many people.
How is this effecting you?
Actually, I think I'll open a new thread asking that question.
I work in home healthcare and most of our patients are funded by Medicare/Medicaid so I am not likely to be impacted, I actually got a nice bonus last month. I'm one of the lucky ones. Working from home exclusively for the last month or so.
I've posted on Fridays before, but probably not this early. All the data was available, and maybe I am assigning too much importance, but I think there is an urgency in presenting this data that is not usually there.
Jobless Claims have improved but it's hard to look at 5+ million as good news, even when compared to 6+ million.
Housing Numbers (Starts/Permits) saw a reduction but the Housing Market Index, which is really a survey of builders came in with the lowest reading I've ever seen @ 30, suggesting we'll see much worse in the base housing numbers.
Cutworm: I have long said that housing is job number related. January sales for all of the housing companies that we work for were records in January, here in the Cincinnati greater area. A large back log has kept us working and will for another month or 2 The ? is can we get employment back to 4%/ JMHO
We'll need to start seeing improvements within the next few weeks (a month tops) or I believe we'll start digging a pretty deep hole.