https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county
"The early results from L.A. County come three days after Stanford researchers reported that the coronavirus appears to have circulated much more widely in Santa Clara County than previously thought.
The Stanford team estimated that 2.5% to 4.2% of Santa Clara County residents had antibodies to the coronavirus in their blood by early April.
Though the county had reported roughly 1,000 cases in early April, the Stanford researchers estimate the actual number was 48,000 to 81,000, or 50 to 85 times greater."
metmike: A 50 times greater rate of infection than what we knew! Wow. because the vast majority never got sick?
Wow!
This would mean:
1. COVID-19 is much more contagious than we thought but
2. COVID-19 is much less deadly than we thought.
If it's this contagious, we will never be able to keep it contained but the good news is that much of the population will get it and either not even know when they have it and/or recover fully. The objective will have to be to protect the old/sick which is the group getting killed at the high rate.
For sure there are some questions about the test results, false positives maybe, for instance and the group that was tested in the study below was not a randomized, population balanced/represented group.
There more white people than the general population and also, they volunteered based on a Facebook ad. Betcha somebody that thinks they might have had it would be much more prone to get their antibodies tested to see if they had it.
It's been odd that California, with its big population and some big cities did not have the big outbreaks.
I am not saying this is it but the marine/oceanic air masses out there were not nearly as dry as places like NY and Detroit were the last 2 months. Many studies suggest that if you double the humidity, the amount of virus that survives for 1 hour is cut by 50%.
FL had an outbreak and it was certainly much warmer and more humid but there is much more to it than just increasing or decreasing the survival rate of the virus by 50%.
If everybody is at home.............they can't transmit the virus, no matter how contagious.
If everybody is in large groups, a virus like this thats only 50% as contagious as before will still spread like heck.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-antibodies-widespread-in-santa-clara.html
 | COVID-19 numbers in this California County may be way underestimated, small antibody study shows | Live Science By Tia Ghose - Assistant Managing Editor 18 April 2020 Between 50 and 85 times as many people in Santa Clara County have coronavirus antibodies as have tested positive for the virus. www.livescience.com |
WOW!!!
 | NY releases figures estimating 14 percent of population, 20 percent in NYC, has had COVID-19 | TheHill Preliminary data shows about 13.9 percent of the population of New York state — about 2.7 million people — have at some point been infected with coronavirus. About 3,000 people were randomly ... thehill.com |
Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) on Thursday stressed that more data will need to be collected, and predicted the infection rate could be higher because this sample did not include people who are not leaving their homes. The tests were conducted over two days in 19 counties and 40 localities.
In New York City, 21 percent of people had antibodies for coronavirus, compared to 3.6 percent in upstate New York, 16.7 percent in Long Island and 11.7 percent in the Westchester/Rockland area.
The data indicates the COVID-19 death rate in New York is about 0.5 percent.
supposedly, in iceland, when they did some thorough testing... 50% of all people had it. 4% should symptoms. far less than 1/10th of 1% died of it.
no worse than a normal flu season.
and we shut down an economy for this?
that should say... showed symptoms.
i have been saying all along...
a lot more people have it than what we have believed. ... a Lot more...
and a lot fewer people die from this than what we are being told.
You were correct bear!
Knowing this, then what do we do?
1. If there are 50 times more people that have it, then it's many times more contagious than we thought. That means that opening stuff up will cause it to spread fast again. That means we must keep everything completely shut down for at least another year, until we get a vaccine right???
Wrong!
2. It's also 50 times less deadly and for everybody but old/sick people no worse than the flu(but we don't have a vaccine). So we open things up for the under 65 crowd that is not going to be AS greatly affected by this and that is responsible for most of the productively in the country.........and protect the senior citizens. Those in retirement homes and assisted living facilities. For 1 year, extreme measures should be enforced to keep them isolated and protected as much as possible.
Here's the deal. Staying shut down like this is a 100%, absolute guarantee of an economic apocalypse. One that destroys many millions of lives. People that lose their jobs, can't afford to feed their families. Over 100 million people suffer a significant drop in the quality of their lives. Not maybe but for sure. The only question is how huge and unprecedented will the number be.
Opening up.........is taking a chance that the virus may come back but our only chance to avoid the worst of the apocalypse. If it gets bad again..........we can always shut down some things..........but only if we need to. However, as long as the medical/health care system is not going to be overwhelmed by the amount of sick, its a sad price that we MUST pay to avoid the even worse price and the certain apocalypse if we stay shut down.
We have been perfectly ok with 40,000 flu deaths each year with ZERO shutdowns for decades. No damage to the economy from all those flu deaths.
Looks like maybe we will get hit with 60,000+ deaths from this. Like a bad flu season.at a cost of the worst recession in 90 years. That is, if we start opening up soon.
Do we take actions to keep it from going to 80,000 or even 100,000 deaths by staying shut down longer or shutting down again?
To avoid the additional 20,000 deaths, the cost to the lives of the living would, once again be incredible. Unlike the first 2 months of the shut downs, where many businesses and jobs can come back and the economy can rebound because we started with a record healthy economy, additional shutdowns imposed on an economy that has a very severe recession............means an apocalyptic depression with so many businesses permanently destroyed and coming back might never happen.
5 weeks ago, with no accurate scientific data to understand this enough, we could not rule out 2 million deaths. We HAD TO shut down because even a 1% chance of 2 million deaths was too high. It would have completely overwhelmed the health care system and ALSO caused an economic apocalypse........the worst of both worlds.
We have plenty of scientific data now. There will NOT be a coronavirus apocalypse. The virus was/is bad but most of the damage now is being caused by our reaction to the fear of the virus.
We are actually out of the medical apocalypse woods for the most part. No worst case scenarios happened..........NONE. Every sick person had a bed and a ventilator if needed. Ironically, we are finding out that ventilators that we feared would run out, are actually killing more patients than they are saving.
We are learning more every day. Let's use it to stop imposing more damage than need be because we are acting with fear and like we did a month ago when we didn't know this much.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/50047/
ventilators are hurting people, not Corona
9 responses |
Started by GunterK - April 5, 2020, 6:32 p.m.
It's possible that opening up will increase transmission again. If the data from testing that we will have then shows transmission rates exploding and will lead to 200,000+ deaths THEN we shut down again.
In any other realm, outside of this one where everybody is overly panicked and scared because a coronavirus death counts 100 times more than a death from any other cause, rational thinking would prevail.
We have a Co. in Canada that makes solid partitions for hog pens
Tests are on going to see if these partitions will work to separate people from the virus
already the Co. is getting interst from all over the world. The only thing remaining is to see if the partitions will separate people that may be carriersThis should help reduce the fear of working in some work environments where a partition will separate people at work
You could have your own work space separate from everybody else, just by erecting a partition around your work space
Otheer solutions will come on board, but the bottom line is we have to get back to work
I am afraid we are going to have a depression as the time for GDP recovery has come and gone