https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/us-coronavirus-update-05-04-20/h_18a3fa30e62fa417f6402308aaf3c55b
"An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House said in a press release that it plans to revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the United States, an increase that one of its researchers tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility.
The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, previously predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning.
“We are seeing, of course, a rise in projected deaths for several reasons,” he told CNN’s John King on Inside Politics. “One of them is increased mobility before the relaxation, premature relaxation of social distancing, we’re adding more presumptive deaths as well, and we’re seeing a lot of outbreaks in the Midwest, for example.”
metmike: Bullshit!!! I track the numbers every day. Monday's new case number was the lowest since March 31st(and thats with the massive increase in testing that's picking up many more people that were not getting tested before).
No wonder people don't know what to believe.
Here it is:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/50858/
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Tracking COVID-19 #3 Mon-4-20-20
By metmike - May 5, 2020, 1:41 a.m.
"Today was the lowest number for new infections(24,158) going back to March 30th! Hurray! And that's with the big increase in testing!"
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Of course fake news Chris Cuomo was on CNN telling us all night that its Trumps fault for pushing decision makers to open too soon and now we're going to have tens of thousands of extra deaths because of President Trump caring more about how the economy would affect him.
It was Cuomo's first day back at the station after doing his shows from the faked confinement of his basement last month(to supposedly protect his wife and kids-that got COVID-19 from him, probably because he didn't stay in the basement).
I have been following the numbers closely and I can see no data to suggest that models should be predicting more deaths.
As Winston Churchill is quoted to have said ,"lies , damn lies and statistics"
Thanks for the confirmation cutworm, this is very important to me in trying to be objective in what appears to be a pathetic attempt here by the MSM to use the coronavirus to set up President Trump and to keep the economy shut down as long as possible.
An internal Trump administration report expects about 200,000 daily cases by June.
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, a 70 percent increase from the current number of about 1,750.
The projections, based on government modeling pulled together by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html
(CNN)An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House is now forecasting that 134,000 people will die of Covid-19 in the United States, nearly double its previous prediction.
The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, had predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning.
Relatedly, a Trump administration model projects a rise in coronavirus cases and deaths in the weeks ahead, up to about 3,000 daily deaths in the US by June 1,
The sharp increases in the two models are tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility in the US. States across the country -- including Florida, Colorado, Indiana, Nebraska and South Carolina -- have eased restrictions in an attempt to revive a sputtering economy and calm restless residents."
metmike: I live in Indiana, they announced relaxed restrictions last Friday..........BUT THEY HAVEN"T EVEN STARTED YET! Churches will open again in 3 days and places like gyms, won't open until May 24th.
COVID-19 is brilliant, it knows to increase weeks before actions to relax restrictions take effect(-:
Regardless, new cases were down the last 3 days in our state. They are lying about those states above, with relaxed social distancing and increased mobility, let me make it more clear on a separate page below.
From the NYT article on the previous page...........FAKE NEWS!
"The sharp increases in the two models are tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility in the US. States across the country -- including Florida, Colorado, Indiana, Nebraska and South Carolina -- have eased restrictions in an attempt to revive a sputtering economy and calm restless residents."
metmike: Let's look and see how the relaxed restrictions have really affected those states:
You can get this information at the link below:
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
Indiana: The ANNOUNCEMENT for the new restrictions took place at 1:30pm, last Friday. Churches can reopen this Friday. Gyms can reopen May 24th for instance. Relaxed restrictions have not even started yet...........but our numbers have been down the last 3 days.
Colorado: New case numbers peaked on April 24th. Yesterday's number was less than 30% of the peak.
South Carolina: The peak was way back on April 6th. Yesterdays new case number was less than half of the peak.
Florida: Peaked on April 17th.
Nebraska: One of the last ones to peak....on May 1st but they always had low numbers from the get go.
United States: Peaked on April 24th. Yesterdays number was the lowest since March 31st.....despite a huge increase in testing picking up many more that were not tested before.
Wow! And those are the examples they give for why its supposedly getting worse(places where its getting better).
They take a situation that indicates relaxing restrictions is NOT causing a big increase in new cases(even using a state where the changes have not even gone into effect yet) and completely misrepresent it to tell us the total opposite of the reality....that supposedly relaxing restrictions has caused an increase in model deaths..............
Relaxing restrictions has NOT caused new cases to go back up at any of the states mentioned by them. It's almost funny that they put my state, Indiana in there. We just got an announcement of the new restrictions for later this month, just 4 days ago. Don't these reporters even look at authentic facts or do they intentionally make them up?
By Reid Wilson - 05/05/20 02:48 PM EDT
"It has not helped that the model most widely touted by the White House, produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, has proven itself so deeply incorrect that it has drawn criticism even from fellow statisticians at the school.
That model has managed to be at once far too pessimistic, projecting that some states would need 10 or 20 times as much hospital capacity than they actually needed, and too optimistic, showing the number of cases and deaths plunging at an unrealistic rate.
Several states used the IHME model to build out field hospitals to prepare for a predicted surge in coronavirus patients, or to spend millions of dollars on respirators and ventilators they thought they would need. Many of the field hospitals have already been dismantled, and the ventilators sit unused, as the model proved too alarmist. Senior advisers to two Republican governors told The Hill they had been frustrated by what they now see as misleading information."
metmike: I've been using models all day long for 37 years. This particular model that they site, is supposed to have the latest data incorporated into it........but the latest data, that cutworm and I have been tracking since back in March, does not support a doubling of the number of deaths compared to the previous run. It makes no sense.
“We are seeing, of course, a rise in projected deaths for several reasons,” he told CNN’s John King on Inside Politics. “One of them is increased mobility before the relaxation, premature relaxation of social distancing, we’re adding more presumptive deaths as well, and we’re seeing a lot of outbreaks in the Midwest, for example.”
Cw: In modeling There should not be "Presumptive" factors not backed by data. Presumptive = assuming, and I always said that assumptions will make an ass out of you
mm: "Today was the lowest number for new infections(24,158) going back to March 30th! Hurray! And that's with the big increase in testing!"
According to Worldometers there were 23,196 new cases on 4/27.
I still miss the "threaded" option available on the old forum site.
Thanks pj,
At the source that I've been using the last 2 months and provided above as well as with the daily reports, the number of cases on April 27 was 24,445.
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
cutworm has also been tracking this during that period and I notice on many days, that the numbers from his source will vary from my source but in the end, they are all saying the same thing. He uses Worldometer.
His graph this morning from Worldometer showed slightly fewer cases on April 27th so on this data source, it would be the 2nd lowest since March 31.
Are you suggesting something significant other than a variation in the daily numbers for different sites?
My reason to use this source is because they provide the most detailed daily information for the United States, including going back some time for each individual state and even each county of each state.
I've looked at individual states and counties hundreds of times, including above, to get the data for the 5 states where the NYT erroneously reported that its getting worse there because of less restrictions.
I understand why you liked the old threaded forum format but I have long since forgotten that way.
The old format would never allow for charts and graphs and pictures and maps. I have posted tens of thousands of them. On yesterday's daily weather post there were 59 weather maps. I've missed a few days but if you multiply that by 700 days, the number of days that I have posted them, you get 41,300 maps!
That does not include the climate graphs, the price charts, export/USDA graphs, commodity related maps and other stuff.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51750/
By metmike - May 6, 2020, 12:45 p.m.
I just checked that NYT article from Monday again and they have reworded the verbiage that I quoted. Amazing.
This is what they now say:
"Indiana, Kansas and Nebraska were among the states that allowed the reopening of some businesses on Monday even though they were seeing increasing cases, according to a New York Times database. Other states that have partly reopened while cases have continued to rise include Iowa, Minnesota, Tennessee and Texas, according to the data.
About half of all states have now begun reopening their economies in some significant way, which public health experts have warned could lead to a new wave of cases and deaths."
So, along with their bs about the first 5 states, we have 4 more states to look at:
You can get this information at the link below:
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
Tennessee: Peaked on May 1st. Yesterday was the lowest number since March.
Iowa: Peaked May 2nd. They have always been low
Texas: Peaked on April 9th but not going down much right now.
Minnesota: They are a state that has always had low numbers but they ARE GOING UP. I saved the only 1 that they got right for last.
So they claim this "according to a New York Times database" as their source but then lie or mislead with the data for 8 out of 9 states. Only 1 of those states above, Minnesota is "continuing to rise" as they claim.
Why don't they site the data source? I always do on every iota of data that I have ever posted here. It's paramount to do this for any legitimate entity showing showing data.
Only people that are frauds site their own secret data base as the source of their data because then they can't be fact checked.
metmike: Bullshit!!! I track the numbers every day. Monday's new case number was the lowest since March 31st(and thats with the massive increase in testing that's picking up many more people that were not getting tested before).
I just ran my numbers again (https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/50293/) and get about 116,000+ deaths, which I think might turn out to be a bit high, by the end of May. So I don't think 135,000 total deaths by the end of August is out of the question, even if the reasons being given for the revision may be somewhat iffy.
Thanks pj,
If you see with my numerous posts that have he evidence I dont dispute the actual number.
I question, claims that suggest recent data has caused the model to almost double the previous model forecast and it’s because we are opening too soon.
In 8 put of 9 states ....all that loosened up restrictions.....they gave either misleading to in half those state outright false information about rates going up.
They were correct only for the state of MN.
And their data source was not revealed, just that it was one that the NYT keeps....so we can’t fact check it.
I’ll be glad to plot the graphs of those 9 states to prove my data for those who don’t want to use the link that I always show.
They also claim that the government and Trump have a model that’s now predicting 200,000 new cases a day by the end of the month which is over 7 times the current rate and despite that they still want to reopen. They say 8 times.
for the first time ever here, I used foul language to express my view because pathetic didn’t seem as strong as bullshit for somebody that never swears.
mm, I'm worried that you now seem to have 2 "causes" which raise your blood pressure... ;-)
Funny!
When back at my desk, I’ll paste the link to the thread you started on your model here.
Everybody should see how well it did!
pj's model did better than any model out there!!!!
US Coronavirus deaths
Started by pj - April 9, 2020, 4:47 p.m.
Well, he was a member of the team that got us to the moon. DO we even make those anymore?
mm & tim appreciate the kind words, but calling what I'm doing a "model" is stretch. It's just a simple-minded straight line fit of the data and extrapolating. Extrapolating is always "risky"especially when there are lots of factors in play. Luckily, so far nothing has radically changed the rate of change of the rate of increase in deaths.
FWIW the rate of increase (on the least sq line is just now dropping below 1). Based on that, the peak in (average) daily deaths "should be" just about behind us.
"FWIW the rate of increase (on the least sq line is just now dropping below 1). Based on that, the peak in (average) daily deaths "should be" just about behind us."
Exactly pj!
That's why my blood pressure jumped when CNN and the NYT's came out with bs earlier this week, sounding the alarm bells and telling us how opening up too soon is causing things to get much worse and going to double the deaths(on one model), increasing new infections to 8 times the current rate by the end of the month in another model they sited.
This isn't just news about whether Trump colluded with Russia or wanted Ukraine to investigate Biden stuff. This is THE most important issue during our lives. A situation that has caused tens of millions to lose their jobs(record amount) caused hard to imagine previously, suffering/anxiety/emotional pain/stress/financial hardship. Excessive drinking has gone up significantly as has prescripions for Xanax and antidepressants.
These supposedly trusted news sources are blatantly lying to us and distorting the facts, using this crisis to generate propaganda for their political agenda.
As I have said previously, Trump acts deplorable at times because of his character flaws but doing what CNN and the NYT's did this past week is diabolical.
They hate Trump more than they love the truth or the people in this country and there is nothing they won't do to obliterate him.
I know that this gets no sympathy from those that hate Trump and feel that he deserves whatever he gets but this is mostly about the greatly suffering American people.....who deserve much better than this from our "trusted news sources".
Continues to be BS! Does the graph below updated with the latest data look like infection rates are going higher because we are opening up? The falling blue line is the plot of the daily numbers. The orange line is the total number.
The science is defined by this data. Follow the science!
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
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CNN continues to double down and triple down on BS.
" (CNN)President Donald Trump's repudiation of Dr. Anthony Fauci has long been probable. Once the trusted doctor warned of the human cost of Trump's push to quickly reopen the country, it became inevitable.
Trump broke with Fauci, who has served under six presidents, on Wednesday over the infectious disease expert's warnings that getting businesses and schools back open too quickly would lead to unnecessary suffering and death."
"The delicate dynamic between Fauci and Trump has been watched for months. Its latest fraying marks the most pronounced clash yet in the tussle between science and politics that has long plagued the administration's fight against the coronavirus."
1. Fauci is just a medical advisor and acknowledges that he is not an expert on the economy or the affects.
2. CNN continues to try to inject as much of a bad spin as they can into the relationship between Trump and Fauci...............and only because Fauci is liked and well respected and they hope to generate more hate for Trump from Fauci lovers. Don't fall for their diabolical schemes to use the coronavirus pandemic for their political agenda.
3. CNN continues to claim that they and others that insist we stay shut down are using the science and people that want to open up are ignoring the science. This is the complete opposite of the truth. CNN is anti science. They apply what they call science(staying shut down indefinately saves lives) to the wrong problem.............one that doesn't consider the science of peoples lives....... staying shut down has done 100 times more damage than the actual virus. It's not even close.
The data and using the entire picture IS the science. We know 10 times more than we did 2 months ago. Let's use it along with the authentic data.
The graph above shows daily infection rates falling(even with tests more than doubling, making it look like the rate is falling less than it really is).
I only look at the science......defined by the data of new daily cases and the science that defines the quality of peoples lives...........and what we know about this virus.
It's so dang one sided and the complete opposite of what the side claiming to "follow their science" is telling us(stay shut in indefinitely).
Let's ask some questions:
1. Have we peaked-yes
2. Are rates dropping-yes
3. Did we flatten the curve-yes
4. Did the health care system hold up solidly-yes
5. 2 months ago, when we shut down, were those the objectives of the shutdown?-yes
6. Are we so afraid that the virus might come back, that we are 100 more concerned about that than we should be-yes
7. Has the economy been obliterated by decisions made above to accomplish objectives that were accomplished-yes
8. Will the economy get worse if we stay shut in-yes
9. Will the economy get better if we open up slowly-yes
10. Will peoples lives get better if we open up slowly-yes
11. Can the virus be managed if we open up slowly and use what we've learned the past 2 months(social distancing, wearing masks, ect) yes\
12. Does the science tell us that warmth/humidity and sunshine kill COVID-19-yes
13. Does it get warm and more humid with more powerful sunshine every Spring/Summer-yes
14. Has this crushed the flu virus's every year during the last century-yes
15. Are we developing new treatments for COVID-19-yes
Should we be opening up slowly YES X 15 solid reasons
metmike: Just a reminder of what set me off 2 weeks ago when the NYT and CNN took their bs peddling to scare people and make Trump look bad for pushing to reopen to a new unprecedented level( well beyond what one would think was possible, knowing what we did at that point). Will they be held accountable?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html
NYT's: "The projections, based on government modeling pulled together by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently."
Actual numbers below thru 7pm May 20, 2020.
Find this data here: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
Daily new cases in blue below. Cumulative new cases in orange. Testing has doubled in the last month which is keeping the measured rate from falling faster.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52242/
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How is it that Chris Cuomo on CNN can fake being confined to his basement to protect the family that he gave the coronavius to and use the coronavirus for ratings is not held accountable?