Highs for days 3-7:

 VERY Chilly, especially in the  Midwest/Northeast!!

HOT (for bear) from Southwest!

Low temperatures days 3-7.

How far south will the freezing temperatures push, starting late this week?

Likely enough to do at least some minor damage to the  SRW(wheat) in the Eastern Cornbelt, over half of which is jointed and can be hurt at temps below 28 for several hours. Saturday Morning looks like the coldest morning there.

My forecast is a bit colder than the NWS forecasts below. There will be numerous daily low temperature records set during this nearly 1 week long cold snap at different locations as the cold moves around.

Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7

Warm/HOT reds West/Southwest.

Chilly eastern half, especially  Midwest to Northeast.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml

Surface Weather features day 3-7:

Reinforcing, parade of  cold fronts  with Arctic High pressure behind them.

Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

Excessive rain potential.

Excessive rain potential.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

Current Day 3 Forecast

Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook	F
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/prec

Learn About Weekly Precipitation

Current Dew Points

Dry air/low dew points................that likely helps virus's in the air to  survive longer.

Higher dew points cuts down on survival time.

It's thought that doubling the humidity(amount of moisture in the air) will decrease the amount of a virus that survives in the air for 1 hour by 50%. Based on the study out April 23rd.......we do know this now with COVID-19. 

Game changing-Summer kills COVID-19

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51095/

Latest radar loop

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Go to: Most Recent Image

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

Soils in many parts of the Cornbelt have dried out enough for early planting.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY!  For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.

April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.

      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/                                                              

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Last Monday: Monday: Very interesting because the ensemble average is zonal since it averages a bunch of individual extremes in the opposite direction that offset each other but the vast majority of solutions are NOT zonal. Huge differences.

Thursday: Zonal average with alot of not so zonal in idividual contributions that average out. 

PM update......dry pattern!

Saturday: Dry pattern, finally warming up in the East?

Sunday: Turning wetter late week 2?? These maps are 2 weeks out.

Monday: Turning much wetter!

Tuesday: Much wetter!!

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on May 20, 2020 12 UTC

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:

GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

Last: Sunday: Positive anomaly north of Alaska may have a connection with the negative anomaly in Southeast Canada with chilly air in the Great Lakes/Northeast.  Could be a significant southern stream though, depends on how much ridging we get in the S.Plains as far as how wet and where. 

Monday: Slight positive anomaly across much of the US, especially NorthWest.

Thursday: Very warm West, chilly NorthEast, looking La Nina-ish. PM UPDATE: Ridge shifting to the center of the country. DRY PATTERN!!!

Saturday: Warm and dry in the West to the center of the country.

Sunday: Added the 1 week map first to show the powerful positive anomaly/upper level ridge, centered in Northwest North America with a textbook coupling downstream  to the impressive negative anomaly(upper level low) in the Northeast US to maximize a very strong north to south component in air masses from high latitudes,  dropping thru Canada and penetrating deeply south into the US.

At the end of 2 weeks, the maps below  show this to weaken substantially. 

Monday: Same as yesterday.

Tuesday: WOW! Look at the change from the first maps, 1 week out and very cold from a ridge in NW North America coupled with the very impressive upper level trough and negative anomaly in the Great Lakes to Northeast.......morphing to modest POSITIVE anomalies in the Southeast half of the US by the end of 2 weeks. The top 2 maps are for day 7, the 2 maps after that are for day 14.......MUCH milder and turning wet.

1 week out below

2 weeks out below

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with the oldest  below.

Last  Monday: Still near 0 for all indices.

Thursday: Still around ZERO fall these indices.

Saturday: Finally a big/significant change. AO drops to --AO in a week, first time down there all year...........brings cold air from high latitudes and flushes it southward. -NAO helps push it south in the Midwest/East. PNA around 0.

Sunday: AO is dropping into negative territory right now. Towards the end of 2 weeks, its back near 0.. NAO is negative and also increases later in the period. The negative values coming up are from the very chilly pattern/near record cold as Arctic air is flushed south from high latitudes to mid latitudes this week and thru at least the early parts of next week.

Tuesday: AO and NAO not as negative, going close to 0 during week 2 as the cold pattern breaks down. PNA near 0 too.

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.

Temperature Probability

 Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

Hi Mike

Remember back a few days you warned me about cold weather.

I replied the 1st 24-48 hrs is the most sensitive, for newly planted seed, to cold weather

Well:

Our local agronomy people are warning everybody it might be best to not plant Fri and Sat.

We will plant some tomorrow then the planters get shut down for a couple days. We will have to move stuff such as pumps and hoses inside plus sprayer etc. Anything that might get damaged with a record frost. Will have portable heaters in the water van etc.

What a pain, plus my other son has to have emergency eye surgery to morrow. We shall see how grand father, who can hardly walk and grand son will cope the next few days

Except for one terrible Mid June frost that killed almost knee high corn and emerged soybeans I have never worried about frost in the spring.

Wayne,

Saturday morning looks like the coldest for you.

upper 20s likely, possibly mid 20s. I hope everything turns out ok for you.