KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 8, 2020
8:30 AM ET. April U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected -22000K; previous -701K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 16.1%; previous 4.4%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.62)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.11)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.39%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.3%; previous +3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.2)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.2)
Government Payrolls (previous +12K)
Private Payroll (previous -713K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. March Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected -1.0%; previous -0.7%)
Monday, May 11, 2020
10:00 AM ET. April Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 60.39)
ETI, Y/Y%
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it renewed the rally off March's low.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9384.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8781.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 9238.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9384.61. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8781.64. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 8556.25.
The June S&P 500 gapped up and was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3081.80 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 2775.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 2957.70. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3081.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2775.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2720.20.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the March 12th high crossing at 184-07 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the reaction low crossing at 177-14 would mark a downside breakout of the April-May trading range. First resistance is the March 12th high crossing at 184-07. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-22. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 177-14.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the April-May trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the April 7th low crossing at 137.160 would mark a downside breakout of the April-May trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 139.220. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.296. Second support is the April 7th low crossing at 137.160.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
June crude oil was higher in overnight trading.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $19.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.50. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $33.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.79. Second support is the April 28th low crossing at $10.07. Third support is April's low crossing at $6.50.
June heating oil was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 104.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.04 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 91.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 104.44. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 67.24. Second support is the October-2001 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 49.30.
June unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extended the rally off April's low. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 107.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.72 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 96.48. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 107.64. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.72. Second support is March's low crossing at 51.89.
June Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extended the decline off Tuesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.881 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-low crossing at 2.273 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-low crossing at 2.154. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-low crossing at 2.273. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.765. Second support is the April 16th low crossing at 1.705. Third support is April's low crossing at 1.649.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the April 24th high crossing at 100.98 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 6th high crossing at 101.03. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 103.96. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 98.78. Second support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.13.
The June Euro was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, April's low crossing at 107.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 109.86 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 109.86. Second resistance is the March 27th high crossing at 111.88. Third resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 112.78. First support is April's low crossing at 107.39. Second support is March's low crossing at 106.71.
The June British Pound was slightly higher overnight while extending the April-May trading range.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1.2252 would confirm that a double top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the April 7th low crossing at 1.2174. If June resumes the rally off March's low the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2758 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 14th high crossing at 1.2653. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2758. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2252. Second support is the April 7th low crossing at 1.2174.
The June Swiss Franc was higher in late-overnight trading while extending the April-May trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 1.0138 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0401 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the April 14th high crossing at 1.0443. Second resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. First support is April's low crossing at 1.0216. Second is March's low crossing at 1.0138.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the March-May trading range. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.73 is the next upside target.If June extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the April 21st low crossing at 70.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.73. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 73.80. First support is the April 21st low crossing at 70.12. Second support is the March 31st low crossing at 69.74. Third support is March's low crossing at 68.20.
The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the September 2019 high crossing at 0.0951 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 0.0943. Second resistance is the September 2019 high crossing at 0.0951. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0916. Third support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS:June gold was higher in late-overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the April 21st low crossing at $1666.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while renewing the decline off April's high. If June extends the rally off May's low, the April 23rd high crossing at $1764.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 23rd high crossing at $1764.20. Second resistance is the April 14th high crossing at $1788.80. First support is the April 21st low crossing at $1666.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1660.60.
July silver was higher overnight while extending the April-May trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $17.237 is the next upside target. Closes below the April 21st low crossing at $14.715 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $16.252. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $17.237. First support is the April 21st low crossing at $14.715. Second support is April's low crossing at $13.935.
July copper was higher in late-overnight trading as it renewed the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.4380 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 2.2840 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.4200. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.4380. First support is the April 21st low crossing at 2.2170. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.9795.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.21 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at $3.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.21 1/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the December-April-decline crossing at $3.33. First support is April's low crossing at $3.09. Second support is psychological support crossing at $3.00.
July wheat was lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.31 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.04 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.31 1/4. Second resistance is the April 20th high crossing at $5.61 1/2. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.04 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $4.94 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.01 1/4-cents at $4.78 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.88 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at $5.14. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.19. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.76. Second support is April's low crossing at $4.67 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.16 1/2 are needed to temper the bearish outlook. If July renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.16 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27. First support is Monday's low crossing at $5.02. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.62 3/4 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off the March 25th high, psychological support crossing at $8.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.62 3/4. Second resistance is the March 25th high crossing at $8.98. First support is April's low crossing at $8.18 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at $8.00.
July soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $295.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $295.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.90. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $285.60. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
July soybean oil was higher overnight while extending the March-May trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.95 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 25.02 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 27.84. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is April's low crossing at 25.09. Second support is March's low crossing at 25.02.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed down $1.68 at $63.90.
June hogs closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $68.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $53.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $68.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $74.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $59.94. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $53.12.
June cattle closed up $4.50 at $93.98.
June cattle gapped above the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.00 and closed limit up on Thursday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $98.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $98.26. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.50. Second support is the April 14th low crossing at $80.27. Third support is April's low crossing at $76.60.
August Feeder cattle closed up $5.40-cents at $138.15.
August Feeder cattle gapped up and closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.91 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $125.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 25th high crossing at $139.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.91. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $125.30. Second support is the April 14th low crossing at $121.35. Third support is April's low crossing at $110.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.46 would signal that a low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 10.31 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.39 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 24.25 would open the door for a larger-degree rally into early-May.
July sugar closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 8.36 is the next downside target. If July resumes last-week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.06 is the next upside target.
July cotton closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 57.98 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If July extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the April 21st low crossing at 52.01 is the next downside target.