Highs for days 3-7:

 Last cool(not cold) shot for May early this week, then a huge pattern change as we heat up as this week progresses.

Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7

Reds will be increasing.

Pattern change to much warmer, accelerating late this week.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml

Surface Weather features day 3-7:

Tropical Storm Arthur!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Rains picking up Plains/Upper Midwest this weekend, where some places will welcome it. 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

Excessive rain potential.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

Current Day 3 Forecast

Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook	F
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/prec

Current Dew Points

Dry air/low dew points................that likely helps virus's in the air to  survive longer.

Higher dew points cuts down on survival time.

It's thought that doubling the humidity(amount of moisture in the air) will decrease the amount of a virus that survives in the air for 1 hour by 50%. Based on the study out April 23rd.......we do know this now with COVID-19. 

Game changing-Summer kills COVID-19

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51095/

Latest radar loop

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Go to: Most Recent Image

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

Soils in many parts of the Cornbelt have dried out enough for early planting.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY!  For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.

April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.

May: 7:  Drought increased a bit from KS westward.

May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.

      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/                                                              

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Last Wednesday: Prominent upper level ridge in the Southeast..........very warm. Several members have some northern stream action and cooler temps in the Midwest/Northeast.

Thursday: Upper level ridge S/SE.  Will any northern stream cooler air near the surface be able to sneak south of the border?

Friday: Big spread in solutions. Cooler today, less southeast ridge on the average

Saturday: Benign, zonal, west to east flow.

Sunday: Ridging southcentral. 

Monday:  Very Warm. How much rain??? Will a zone of heavy rains set up north of a heat ridge in the South with a strong Pacific jet stream?

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 03, 2020 00 UTC

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:

GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

Last: Sunday: Added the 1 week map first to show the powerful positive anomaly/upper level ridge, centered in Northwest North America with a textbook coupling downstream  to the impressive negative anomaly(upper level low) in the Northeast US to maximize a very strong north to south component in air masses from high latitudes,  dropping thru Canada and penetrating deeply south into the US.

At the end of 2 weeks, the maps below  show this to weaken substantially. 

Monday: Same as yesterday.

Tuesday: WOW! Look at the change from the first maps, 1 week out and very cold from a ridge in NW North America coupled with the very impressive upper level trough and negative anomaly in the Great Lakes to Northeast.......morphing to modest POSITIVE anomalies in the Southeast half of the US by the end of 2 weeks. The top 2 maps are for day 7, the 2 maps after that are for day 14.......MUCH milder and turning wet.

Saturday: Positive anomaly much of the country.Much warmer and wet.

Sunday: Widespread warmth. Positive anomaly in the East 1 week out.

Monday: Positive anomalies and warmth dominate on this model...but look at the very powerful positive anomaly in the high Arctic in 1 week! But that weakens greatly and shifts farther away.

Wednesday: Negative anomaly off the Southeast Coast late week 1.  Very warm late week 2.

Thursday: Week 2 looks warm. 

Friday: Changing and unstable.

Saturday: Warm. Mostly positive anomalies in the US.

Monday: Positive anomalies and very warm for much of the country.

1 week out below

2 weeks out below

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with the oldest  below.

Last  Sunday: AO is dropping into negative territory right now. Towards the end of 2 weeks, its back near 0.. NAO is negative and also increases later in the period. The negative values coming up are from the very chilly pattern/near record cold as Arctic air is flushed south from high latitudes to mid latitudes this week and thru at least the early parts of next week.

Tuesday: AO and NAO not as negative, going close to 0 during week 2 as the cold pattern breaks down. PNA near 0 too.

Saturday: Still slightly negative AO and NAO suggest potential for cool air far north PNA near 0/a tad positive.

Sunday: Slightly negative AO and NAO may not be able to overcome the upper level ridging that builds in. 

Monday: The models in the US are very warm but these indices, that especially dial in higher latitude relationships with the mid latitudes, suggest the risk of chilly air pushing south of the US border.  AO and NAO both negative. PNA slightly positive.

Wednesday: Indices close to 0 but with a pretty wide spread.............meaning uncertainty. 

Thursday: AO and NAO slight negative and PNA slight positive provide a  cooler risk to the very warm forecast, especially in the northern tier. 

Saturday. Indixes pretty close to 0. NAO a tad negative with slightly elevated chance for cooler than models.

Monday: Indices close to 0, not a factor. They become less useful in the warm season as they are best used for northern stream indicators. 

Tuesday: Positive AO. Near 0 for NAO and PNA.

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.

Temperature Probability

 Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

Previous discussions:

                                                       By wglassfo - May 6, 2020, 12:16 a.m.            

Hi Mike

Remember back a few days you warned me about cold weather.

I replied the 1st 24-48 hrs is the most sensitive, for newly planted seed, to cold weather

Well:

Our local agronomy people are warning everybody it might be best to not plant Fri and Sat.

We will plant some tomorrow then the planters get shut down for a couple days. We will have to move stuff such as pumps and hoses inside plus sprayer etc. Anything that might get damaged with a record frost. Will have portable heaters in the water van etc.

What a pain, plus my other son has to have emergency eye surgery to morrow. We shall see how grand father, who can hardly walk and grand son will cope the next few days

Except for one terrible Mid June frost that killed almost knee high corn and emerged soybeans I have never worried about frost in the spring.

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                Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            

                By metmike - May 6, 2020, 2:59 a.m.            

Wayne,

Saturday morning looks like the coldest for you.

upper 20s likely, possibly mid 20s. I hope everything turns out ok for you.

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Hi Mike

May 11

Remember I said we stopped planting last week as cold moisture soaked into the seed causes cold shock, 1st 24-48 hrs., as we were warned by seed Co's as when to stop planting

Well I can't wait for all that heat to arrive although rain could be a problem

Raining last mite [May 10] turned to snow over nite

Cold all week and all spring

Snow still covered the ground at 8 A:M this morning

No idea of temp.

Snow was enough proof it is cold

Wonder how far south cold weather may be???

We are 70 miles NE of Detroit, with barely a sprout on corn with no plastic

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                Re: Weather Thursday            

                By wglassfo - May 14, 2020, 2:09 p.m.            

Hi Mike

Your weather maps do me no good

I get 1/2 off the maps on screen the same 1/2 as the home page, which just happens to be the western 1/2

Going to the links doesn't work as I don't have a state  or location, in the USA

Even Mich. is not much good to me, as upper Mich is a world of difference

If you could add a bit about the Lower Great Lakes, occasionally, would help

You did ask about freezing temps which was helpful

I mentioned this before and you said nothing could be done to open up the maps to full screen

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                                  Re: Re: Weather Thursday            

                By metmike - May 14, 2020, 2:33 p.m.            

Actually Wayne, I think I  know how to fix your problem.

Go to the top right on your computer and hit a button with 3 dashes on it so that it gives you a drop down menu with a ton of choices.

Find the choice "Zoom"  hit the - sign at least one time to reduce from 100% to 80%.

If that doesn't completely fix it, hit the - button again to reduce from 80% to 67%.

Let me know if this works.

Mike

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                Re: Weather Thursday            

                By wglassfo - May 14, 2020, 5:38 p.m.            

Tks Mike

That worked although now I need my glasses

                              ++++++++++++++++++++++++++         

                Re: Re: Weather Thursday            

                By metmike - May 15, 2020, 2:09 a.m.            

Is this better Wayne (-:

                Re: Weather Monday            

                            By mcfarm - May 18, 2020, 10 a.m.            

weather seems to be always a challenge the lat few years esp. 26 degrees took some crop. got done planting last Wed. nite, maybe? Lots of rain and water standing now. Have been cold and wet constantly since Marc h. These windows of just a few days to plant thousands of acres are not appreciated in the least. Not a good way to put your entire years crop at risk by being pushed that hard, but it is what it is. Progress seems to be spotty with N Iowa and S minn getting done way early while many areas have been in for a fight to get planted again this year.

off topic but watched part of "the last dance" about the Bulls and Jordon. Was so very impressed with Jordon and his honestly in answering how he lived and played. you do not get answers like that often in this namby/pamby hypocritical world....Good for Jordon

Great to hear from you mcfarm,

At least its much better than last years planting disaster!