Highs for days 3-7:

Hot! in the C/S Plains to the Southwest. Some of that heat shifts east but not intense heat there.

Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7

HOT, especially in the C/S Plains.............spreading east a bit.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml

Surface Weather features day 3-7:

Heat is building in the C/S Plains to points southwest and some will spread east associated with a heat ridge aloft.

On the north to northeast to east side of the heat ridge fronts will trigger some storms. 

Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Storm clusters eventually develop over the top to northeast to east side of the heat ridge.........more rains on the maps for this period than models and forecasts showed last week. 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

Excessive rain potential.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

Current Day 3 Forecast

Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:

Strong storms increase

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook	F
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/prec

Learn About Weekly Precipitation

Current Dew Points

Dry air/low dew points................that likely helps virus's in the air to  survive longer.

Higher dew points cuts down on survival time.

It's thought that doubling the humidity(amount of moisture in the air) will decrease the amount of a virus that survives in the air for 1 hour by 50%. Based on the study out April 23rd.......we do know this now with COVID-19. 

Game changing-Summer kills COVID-19

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51095/

Latest radar loop

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Go to: Most Recent Image

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY!  For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.

April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.

May: 7:  Drought increased a bit from KS westward.

May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.

May 21:  A bit more drought in ND.

May 28: Not much change

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.

      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/              

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Last Monday: Big heat ridge Plains to start week 2 but half  of the solutions on this model break it down by the end of week 2.  If it becomes entrenches in that location, it becomes very bullish the grains.  If farther east/southeast, it will be more bullish for ng(heat and cooling demand to high population centers vs crops, where not as many people live)

Wednesday: Here come da ridge!  Major heat ridge from the Plains eastward with no rain under the ridge. Strong jet and deep trough out west, sending waves eastward around the periphery of the dome with rains possible outside of the ridges rain suppressing influence.

Thursday: A little more than half the members keep the heat ridge strong. The others break it down.

Sunday: Heat Ridge in the Southern 1/3 on most solutions......shrinking. 

Tuesday: Much wetter than last week.  Will there be a heat ridge somewhere? Regardless, MUCH less of the country will be hot vs last weeks maps.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 17, 2020 12 UTC

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:

Sunday: Where will the heat ridge be. Southern Plains is favored on many solutions.

GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

Sunday: Heat ridge moves around. Weakens late in the period.

Tuesday: Heat ridge is gone after week 1. Positive anomalies shift to higher latitudes in week 2. Much cooler week 2 vs previous forecasts going back to a week ago. 

1 week out below

2 weeks out below

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with the oldest  below.

Sunday: All slightly negative. No huge factor

Tuesday: The NAO tilting towards negative in week 2 is assisting in cooler temps. 

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.

Temperature Probability

 Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

Long range outlook:

NEW:   My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer?            

                                       Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52701/

The NWS made HUGE changes to the June forecast. REALLY HUGE!

Previously, the Cornbelt had average temps(equal chances of above and below) and above average rains everywhere.

The new forecast has a high chance of above temps and a large pocket of drier than average, surrounded by average. This is HUGE!

This now agrees with my forecast from over a week ago!!!

Revised OFFICIAL 30-Day Forecasts

Issued: May 31, 2020

Looks like some scattered showers ,  bearish

However, Hot Dry winds with wind is going to dry out quickly

If your La Nina holds true which looks very likely, then conditions will tell the story on dry. Long time before crop is in the bin.

This heat has got crops growing and looking much better

But that can change

Usually in The Great Lakes we might suffer from summer dry but never a crop failure. Some times like this yr looks so far we may miss rain at pollination. That can be as much as 40 bu, but mostly 20-30 less but then some times we get an evening pop up shower, just in the nick of time

So far crops look decent locally, but windy for spraying 

No telling where the bulk of crop conditions will be in Aug.

Part of Ill. is struggling. Some other places are already dry

Looks like SA must have finally run out of  export beans. SA just finishing up on pre-sold beans for shipment now

China would not be buying beans from us unless everybody else is empty. China needs beans every week 1.5 billion need a lot of food, and much of china land mass will not grow food

Wayne,

It's interesting because the weather has turned much more bearish but the beans are way up because of exports to China and even the corn is being pulled a bit higher.

Much more rain on the way and much less heat in week 2 in fact, below normal temps in the Midwest in week 2!! Close to perfect

Am I reading weather as

 bearish short term

Bullish long term  -  La Nina

Of coarse china changed things a bit