Happy July 6th!
Monday:
Bullish weather in week 2 and beyond for grains.............but we added some rains this week which are keeping a lid on the gains.
The widespread heat ridge is bullish ng...............but we've added a cold front late this week that is keeping a lid on gains in this market.
Heat fill coming up for corn
Started by metmike - June 25, 2020, 7:52 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/54571/
July 3rd update: Early La Nina right now! My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer! Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52701/
Latest COVID-19 numbers. ...........going up.....but deaths(lagging indicator) have not increased yet.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/55092/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
 |
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
| NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
HOT as a firecracker for early in the week.
Triple digit highs S.Plains for the next 2 weeks!!!!!
Late week cold front stronger and drops temperatures back close to normal for a few days..............before the heat really picks up in week 2.
Corn and Beans HAVE to be under some significant stress right now.
Actually Jim, not in most of the cornbelt. Probably where you are but most of the belt has pretty good soil moisture and temps have not been that hot until now.
I've been away from home for the last week, but before I left leaves were rolling in the fields around me in NE Ohio. But even at that, corn looked good. But corn in my area is only about waist high, which is typical. Lots of growing to do.
Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7
Compared to average, the temperature disparity will be greatest along the northern tier.......back thru the Plains......On the cool side Northwest US.
Plenty of heat still but we get a slight reprieve from the heat late in the week into next weekend.
Considering that we are approaching the hottest time of year climatologically, these red departures above average are very impressive.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Cold front gets a good push Thu/Fri to the Ohio River by early Saturday. Temps behind it will drop closer to normal for a few days. There will also be rain chances but warm air aloft could suppress rising air and instability in some locations.
100+ Southern Plains!
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Some areas get decent rains........some areas miss. Most areas don't get enough.
Plenty of rain Gulf Coast to Southeast.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | F |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/prec
Learn About Daily Precipitation
Learn About Weekly Precipitation
Current Dew Points
MANY 65+ deg. Dew points in the Cornbelt.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY! For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.
April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.
May: 7: Drought increased a bit from KS westward.
May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.
May 21: A bit more drought in ND.
May 28: Not much change
June 4: Drought increases a tad in the N.Plains and Upper Midwest.
June 10: Drought worsening in the S.Plains could be part of the La Nina signal!!
June 17: Drought got worse again in the S.Plains and yellows/slight drought emerged in new locations............all of Indiana.
June 24: Drought help in some places(KS) but increased a bit in others(ND).
July 1: Drought shrunk in Ohio Valley(I got 5.5 inches of rain in sw INdiana!) but not much change elsewhere. Surprised it didn't shrink more in IN/IL where some places(Bowyer) got great rains recently.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Last Wednesday: this model is the HOTTEST! 588 contour is now NORTH of Chicago and on day 16 we have our first 594 dm contour in Arkansas with the major heat ridge. A minority of solutions still disagree with this and the other models are not nearly this bullish but are leaning in this direction.
Thursday: Major heat ridge southern half, with strong agreement. Fast, active flow northern tier.This is a very warm to hot pattern for much of the country! How far south will rains go into the rain defeating heat ridge?
Friday: Not as bullish with the heat ridge at Noon Friday. Jet stream farther south. It will probably look different over the weekend.
Saturday. MUCH stronger with the heat ridge from the S.Rockies/Plains to points eastward.......some solutions have a "dome of death". Fast jet stream in the northern 1/3rd.
Sunday: Major dome with blistering heat and no rain, most likely centered in the S.Plains but other locations possible, especially with it being very expansive.
Monday/latest: Same as Sunday.............very impressive with widespread agreement!
Tuesday: Continues very impressive with the heat ridge in the Southern half of the country, especially the S.Plains. Several ......minority of members try to crash the top of the ridge in the Upper Midwest/N.Plains with energy towards the end of week 2. Regardless, there WILL BE widespread big heat across much of the country!
Wednesday: Still impressive dome, especially S.Plains but the top is eroded a bit on todays models.
Thursday: Most impressive display of the dome yet for this model. 588 decameter contour north of Chicago but look at the huge 594 contour in the S.Plains. Temps under that will be 100+. It's location could continue to shift north or east.......or back in the other direction if energy from the norther tier batters down the top of the ridge. Either way, there WILL be a major heat dome.
Friday: Possible cooling northern tier on this model. Heat ridge in the south.
Sunday: Massive heat ridge/dome............but the location is uncertain, especially how far east does it extend? Pretty strong jet stream just south of the Canadian border. Will that erode the ridge or send cold fronts south or will it define the strong boundary between the heat wave to the south with capped air under warm air aloft and the dome and active weather over the top/along the periphery of the heat ridge/dome?
Monday: Strong stream along the Canadian border, massive heat ridge south of that.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 21, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
Saturday: Several members have a huge dome.............others northwest type flow in the Midwest to Northeast.
Sunday: Same disparity without many solutions having the center of the heat ridge in the Midwest. ...........where active flow/perturbations could trigger decent rains.
Tuesday: Active northwest flow in the Midwest on the majority of solutions for the GFS Ensemble. .....but several have the heat ridge stronger shoving the jet stream out, with more heat as a result.
Wednesday: Heat ridge Southwest to S.Plains on many solutions but still northwest flow over with perturbations and rain dropping from the N/C.Plains into the Midwest. Will the heat ridge continue to build and shove the jet stream and northwest flow farther north like the Canadian model? Or is the Canadian model out to lunch?
Thursday: Big heat ridge/dome but location is uncertain. S.Plains is a very good bet but also points northeast to east could have a heat ridge.
Friday: This model is MORE bullish with the idea of the heat ridge building northeast. It also will probably look different early next week.
Saturday: How far north will the dome/heat ridge be? Fast flow south of the Canadian border.
Sunday: Core of dome/heat ridge C/S Plains to Rockies but potentially very expansive.What often happens is that cold fronts that push thru, cut under the very warm air aloft from the dome(capped air) that has fed into parts of the Midwest and the front is unable to generate the rising air/instability needed to generate rain/storm bearing clouds.
Monday: Heat ridge/dome is farther west on this model than, especially the Canadian model but still very impressive.
Tuesday: Big heat ridge in the S.Plains. How far east/west and north is the big ??
How much jet stream along the northern tier can erode the top of the ridge? Or does it help to lock it in, just south with fast flow north of it.
Wednesday: Expected daily/model run fluctuations. In this case, the last couple of runs are suggesting the dome erodes and on the GFS, backs up to the west a bit. Pretty strong jet stream for July across the northern tier of states.
Thursday: This model is going back and forth. It was backing the dome farther southwest for a couple of solutions(cold front making it thru the Midwest), then the last one brought it the farthest northeast yet.
Friday: Unlike the Canadian model, the GFS has the heat ridge dominating farther north
Sunday: Massive heat ridge/dome over much of the country. Possible cooling Northeast and likely cooling Northwest.
Monday: Huge heat ridge for much of the country.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Last Saturday: We should note that major positive anomalies in June are heat ridges in the middle latitudes. They are really moving around right now with a transient type pattern. At day 7, a big one in Eastern Canada, another just off the Pac Northwest Coast. At day 14, in SouthCentral Canada to the N.Plains. The Gulf Coast is one of the few places with average to modestly negative anomalies. This suggests that the heat will be farther north. Though the models have lots of rain during this period, if we saw negative anomalies increase along the Gulf Coast, they could impede the deep moisture return northward and we would see a drier heat from the west vs air masses with more of a south to north component, loaded with juicy GOM moisture. The day 14 pattern is clearly very warm to hot(at times) for much of the country. Not as hot as yesterday but even air masses coming from S.Canada with any cold fronts will be warm and quite dry.
Tuesday: Strong Positive anomaly at the end of week 1 around the Hudson Bay means heat in S.Canada to just south of the border. It migrates west and weakens in SouthCentral Canada with a weak negative anomaly in the Southeast US which makes heat unlikely in the Southeast US if that verifies.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly center around the N.Great Lakes area makes heat in that area a given. It will be widespread from the N.Plains to the Northeast. Temperature in the Southeast will be closer to normal.
Thursday: End of week 2 positive anomaly will determine the extent and strength of a major heat ridge. S.Plains look most likely from weather models but the anomaly map is not that helpful.
Friday: Anomaly positive in week 2....on this model is pretty favorable for ridging in the S.Plains to extend northeast across the Midwest to the Northeast. Slight weakness Pac Northwest and Gulf Coast.
Saturday: Positive anomalies and widespread heat.
Sunday: Same as Saturday. There WILL be a big dome and the heat ridge will be very expansive. Location will be a key.
Monday/latest: Positive anomalies and widespread heat........similar to the last several days!
Tuesday: Positive anomaly northcentral USA associated with the big heat ridge just south of that location. Temperature anomalies will be greatest around the C/S Plains., with widespread 100+
Wednesday: Positive anomaly shifted a bit westward but dome still a dominate feature with widespread heat.
Thursday: This solution of this model shifts the center of the positive anomaly in the US a tad farther west into the Rockies. The solution 6 hours after this shifted it back eastward.............so its going back and forth.
Friday: Positive anomalies over almost the entire country. Centered in the NorthCentral US. Widespread heat!
Saturday: New slight negative anomaly in the Southeast at day 7 is associated with surprise cooling(less heat) for a few days in that area. This reverts back to widespread positive anomalies across the country in week 2, with the center in the NorthCentral US. Strong signal for widespread heat and a big heat ridge.
Monday: Weak negative anomaly day 7 with temporary cooling in the East. Then positive anomalies in week 2 take over the entire country with a center in the Great Lakes. Widespread heat-high confidence. As soils dry out, day time max temps will get higher.
1 week out below
2 weeks out below
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Friday: Near 0 for the AO/NAO. However, the PNA is solidly positive. Warm/hot and dry in the West if often a result..........how far east would that be? Is this part of a La Nina signal?
Sunday: AO/NAO slightly negative. PNA solidly positive. Doesn't match that well with the actually weather maps/pattern.
Monday: Negative AO, slight negative NAO but the NAO starts solidly positive and crashes to negative during week 2. Could signal a pattern change.
Wednesday. Nothing noteworthy, especially with this being Summer and these indices work best with the northern stream in the Winter.
THursday: AO near 0. NAO bounces from negative to zero, some positive. PNA goes from positive to negative. SIgn of a pattern change with heat ridge building in the S.Plains to points east/northeastward??? We'll see
Friday: PNA dropping a bit could help pump heat ridge farther east?
Saturday: Indices all near zero towards the end of week 2.
Monday: Not a factor in the pattern, except to allow it to happen with no northern stream influence (huge dome developing in the Southern half of the country.
Tuesday: Data error.
Wednesday: Not a major factor.
Thursday: Slightly negative AO/NAO near 0 PNA. Not a main factor.
Sunday: Solidly negative AO(for Summer) and slightly negative NAO with a lot of spread in solutions introduces a risk of northern stream cooling, especially in the northern tier, despite the models pretty impressive heat ridge/dome over most of the country in week 2. This has the potential to dig some energy into the Northeast and back the dome farther west............POTENTIAL. Tremendous uncertainty and a huge change in the -past 24 hours that featured a version of this, now coming up later this week(that wasn't there before) is noteworthy.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
 | |
Long range outlook............updated July 3rd
My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer!
Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.
Previous posts:
By wxdavid - July 5, 2020, 5:53 p.m.
GFS WAAAAAY TO WET GIVEN UPEPR AIR PATTERN
By metmike - July 5, 2020, 6:37 p.m.
Thanks Dave,
Nice maps!
The day 7 trough amplifying suddenly was a surprise on the oz runs.
The week 2 dome looks pretty impressive!
Where do you think it will be?
I will guess S.Plains.
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By Jim_M - July 6, 2020, 12:18 p.m.
Corn and Beans HAVE to be under some significant stress right now.
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By metmike - July 6, 2020, 1:28 p.m.
Actually Jim, not in most of the cornbelt. Probably where you are but most of the belt has pretty good soil moisture and temps have not been that hot until now.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Monday
By Jim_M - July 6, 2020, 1:40 p.m.
I've been away from home for the last week, but before I left leaves were rolling in the fields around me in NE Ohio. But even at that, corn looked good. But corn in my area is only about waist high, which is typical. Lots of growing to do.
Jim,
The crop condition report maps show the deterioration in the ECB from lack of rains.
With the OH corn dropping -10% and beans -7%!
We got flooded here in Valley Forge,Pa.. The bullseye once again! Six inches of rain in less than an hour! I thought i was in texas!!
https://weather.com/news/news/2020-07-06-pennsylvania-philadelphia-flash-floods-water-rescues
https://www.inquirer.com/weather/philadelphia-flood-warning-severe-weather-20200706.html
