Thanks Larry!

We opened modestly lower but no gap lower and held Fridays low for the first few minutes at least.

1.737 was the low from around 6:30 am Friday morning.

Late Friday afternoon, the price moved a bit higher, than the 1:30pm close, so we are actually down a bit more based on the 4pm close.

As you mentioned we are not AS hot as Friday but still pretty hot compared to average.

NG has been quiet this evening.  The low occurred in the first minute at 1.751, then we bounced to the highs and peaked at 1.787 a couple hours after the open...........and have been drifting lower, now just after 1pm.

Marvelous Monday to you! Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/55731/

Due to the year we have been having, it seems that all the traditional seasonal trends, are no longer valid for the time. Blame it on the virus, the unusual weather, or the world economy. Got to adapt.

Thanks Marc!

The drop in industrial demand and exports is what has killed ng prices the most. 

Production is dropping too. At some point, this should turn pretty bullish.

From Natural Gas Intelligence after the close on Monday:

August Natural Gas Futures Dip Lower Alongside Forecasts for Less Intense Heat

Though intense heat remains in the cards for the balance of summer, near-term forecasts shifted cooler over the weekend and had a dampening effect on natural gas futures Monday. The August Nymex contract lost 6.6 cents day/day and settled at $1.739/MMBtu. September fell 5.0 cents to $1.797.  NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. advanced 1.0 cent… 

   July 13, 2020

Terrific Tuesday to You!

Heat wave coming up for several days............then not as hot. 

Will we start to heat up again towards the end of week 2??

 Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/55889/

NGI after the close Wednesday:

As Intense Heat Simmers, August Natural Gas Futures Trade Higher Ahead of Next Storage Report

Natural gas futures advanced Wednesday as markets mulled prospects for continued intense heat along and estimates for a bullish storage injection report. The August Nymex contract advanced 3.2 cents day/day and settled at $1.778/MMBtu. September rose 3.1 cents to $1.818.  NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. declined a half-cent to $1.670. Bespoke Weather Services said that…

Thanks for another Thursday! Here's your sizzling weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56037/

  From last week

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending July 3, 2020   |  Released: July 9, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 16, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             + 56 BCF                     Neutral                               Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,133 Bcf as of Friday, July 3, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 56 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 685 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 454 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,679 Bcf. At 3,133 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

7 day temps for last Thursday's report:

Much more heat in some of the high population areas vs the previous weeks, so the injection was lower than last week by double digits.

7 day temps for Thursdays report. Hot in the Midwest to Northeast. Small injection!

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

Show more

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs

75 ng rig count.  Lowest in history, just below the Summer of 2016.

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending July 10, 2020   |  Released: July 16, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 23, 2020 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,178 Bcf as of Friday, July 10, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 45 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 663 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 436 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,742 Bcf. At 3,178 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Nearly In-Line Storage Injection Nudges July Natural Gas Futures Higher

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an injection of 45 Bcf into storage for the week ending July 10, a print that reflected intense heat and robust cooling demand. The result pushed up Nymex natural gas futures, though early gains were modest amid lingering concerns about weak liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand. The build… 

By Kevin Dobbs

July 16, 2020

metmike: Actually, ng is getting crushed as of just after 11am.  The heat has been traded for weeks and is losing bullish  umppph at  them moment.

If new weather models shift more of the heat, farther east in week 2, instead of the other way around, farther west, like they are doing now-bearish) than we can go back up.

From Natural gas Intelligence after the close on Thursday:

Under Shadow of Coronavirus, LNG Woes Weigh Down August Natural Gas Futures Despite Positive Storage Report

A favorable storage report was overshadowed on Thursday by a coronavirus resurgence and its potential to keep liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports at depressed levels. The August Nymex contract lost 5.5 cents day/day and settled at $1.723/MMBtu. September fell 4.2 cents to $1.776. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. advanced 1.0 cents to $1.680. The U.S.… 

11 Rigs running and I have 1.

NDIC Directors cut out and May #s are available.

Oil production 05 2020   26,610,210 Bls of Oil or 858K per D vs

Oil production 04 2020   36,639, 583Bls of Oil or 1,221K per D vs

Oil production 11 2019                                             1,519K per D  (all time high)

Daily Rate:

Down 30% April to May

Down 43% Nov 2019 to May

Gas production 05 2020   59,778 Bcf  of Gas or 1,992Bcf  per D vs

Gas production 04 2020   81,355 Bcf  of Gas or 2,711Bcf  per D vs

Gas production 03 2020                                        2,895 Bcf  per D vs

Daily Rate:

Down 27% April to May

Down 31% Nov 2019 to March 

Entire Directors cut can be accessed here at 2 PM CT

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/informationcenter.asp

Judge Boasberg's ruling on shut down of DAPL"stayed". Appeal to be heard by DC Appeals court panel. 

https://oilpatchhotline.com/

Have never seen it so uncertain in the Oilfield.

Thanks for another Splendid Sunday! Here's your weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56232/

Here are the comparisons of CDDs for 12Z runs today vs 12Z runs of Fri:

GEFS -1

EPS +3

 So, pretty neutral.

 How will NG open? If Covid concerns dominate, it would likely be down. But if wx dominates, I lean toward a higher opening because week 2 is warmer after a cooler week 1. Mike often says that week 2 often has more influence in an overall neutral 2 weeks. As of Fri, the models suggested little chance of a return of widespread E US heat late month. However, today’s models are suggesting a good chance for that. I think there was a good bit of selling late Fri in anticipation of the big heat not returning. Therefore, I think that if wx dominates today’s open, it will probably open higher. But who knows?

Thanks much Larry!

My guess is that we have been trading this heat for weeks. When it was new, news it caused traders to recalculate their end of July/early August storage estimates with some hefty bullish adjustments.

Since then, the weather has not gotten any more bullish, if anything a bit less heat and not as bullish. 

If storage was low and fundamentals bullish, just the current amount of heat might be enough to support prices. But fundamentals are mostly bearish with Diminished industrial demand and exports and extremely bullish weather is needed to temporarily offset the bearishness.

Initially, when we were at the lows a month ago and everybody was leaning short and the market was very oversold, we had the perfect set up for a sudden change to much more CDD's to maximize short covering(a market being bombarded with bearish news and selling, suddenly got hit with increasing bullish news).

This is why my absolute favorite weather trades are buying bottoms and selling tops based on a huge change in the weather pattern. You are very familiar with that set up.

No way a market is going to keep collapsing lower if suddenly, the important weather forecast turns extremely bullish or much more bullish.

But this is only high probability when its NEW news. We know how traders react to NEW news with high confidence. When its old news, in a bearish environment, how does that inspire additional buying the way the NEW news did?

It might or might not but the initial reaction to much stronger prices can be misleading.  because its almost always an OVER reaction. Lots of traders buying at the market to get out or putting on new positions to be EARLY buyers when the bullish NEW news is still fresh enough that more buyers are still left to buy on it coming out.

This initially creates a tremendous imbalance in buy orders that can only be filled if prices spike much higher to reach levels where they is enough selling to fill them. Traders in this early part of the move like this, don't care as much about price. They want out or they want in. If a ton of people want the same thing for a couple of days, the price move greatly exceeds the true value that the price should represent on those days purely based on the change in the amount of ng demand/storage.

If ng spikes 3,000/contract quickly for instance, it makes it look like the weather was more powerful than it really was.  Yes, it caused the price to spike like that but it was not the actual weather that lead to the extreme..........it was the knee jerk reaction by vulnerable shorts and aggressive longs who piled on with the buying on several days because so many more people wanted to buy vs very few wanting to sell.

It was the temporary imbalance, which can't be maintained after those most vulnerable have been exhausted. 

After you exhaust this element to the buying(at the market type orders that hit the offers) then you run out of traders with that mentality and more that are looking at all the other factors.........including.....is the weather even more bullish  yet, which is needed to inspire fresh longs.

One assumes that most of the people that bought on this intense heat, did so weeks ago when it was fresh news.

That said, I am only trying to capture one very important part of the mentality here.

Prices are really low and the next several EIA reports will be pretty bullish but this is part of the old news.  In the absence of much cooler temps/lower CDD's, it will be hard to generate a powerful trading mentality that inspires alot of traders who want to hit the bids with selling orders-at the market.

Traders down here should care more about price because most are not "I want in" or "I want out" at the market like they were during the last week in June/first week in July, when this bearish market was clobbered with some really bullish weather news.

So I am not predicting where we will go from here, other than...........if the dome shifts to the East later this month and increases heat (CDD's) for the high population areas in those locations then its probably enough fresh bullish news for us to go higher.

If this pattern somehow morphed to being much cooler, then we should be able to go lower for at least part of the time but at these prices, why would large position traders be selling aggressively?

Seasonals are very weak in July. I think they turn up at the end of the month.

Of course COVID news and exports are very important but also, the lowest rig count in history right now.

When does that start affecting supplies. People smarter than me probably know and if it starts cutting supplies more than the market was expecting, its even bigger bullish news than the weather.

Weather is temporary and can change fast. If supplies are drying up from less rigs, that dynamic would take many months to reverse (would probably last into next year) and new traders that suddenly have to dial that in as fresh news, could be very motivated to buy at any price. 

In fact, I think that news will eventually hit. When it does, regardless of the weather, the lows will be solidly in for possibly the rest of our lives(at prices this low).

Unless the US and world are headed into a depression later this year..........which is possible if COVID numbers get really, really bad, prices can't stay this low indefinitely.

New lowest rig count in history. This is not the area of my expertise on ng but at some point, this is going to cause supplies to be drying up at least as much as the demand destruction for Industrial needs and LP exports.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs

The Dow is up slightly and CL around unch so they are not factors right now.

EE a whopping 5 CDDs cooler but ng completely ignored this bearish run of the best model.

Shows evidence that traders are not selling at the market down here at prices this low and at major support....at least not this time.

Ok, the reaction down was not immediate but new lows were mt with buying and support.

And the ng market, like it often does, reacts the way you thought it might/should..........but takes a totally different and misleading very short term path to get there.

After the  less hot EE with 5 less CDD's, ng did NOT sell off right away, in fact it went up. We had new highs for the session. Any day traders selling the cooler 0z EE would have been under water.......up to 5 hours later.

Then, at 8:05am , we tested the highs again at 1.707 and the massive selling party commenced.......going down 1,000/contract in 90 minutes.

Nah, I think it was down mainly due to Covid concerns, not wx.

Marvelous Monday to you! Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56324/

10:39 ET - Natural gas prices extend declines that began last week, down a 
steep 6.1% mid-morning in NY at $1.614/mmBtu and on track for the lowest 
closing price since June 26. "Prices are falling alongside broader markets as 
the number of COVID-19 cases in the US continues to climb, increasing concerns 
of a slow economic recovery," says Schneider Electric's Christin Redmond.

Thanks Larry!

I'm sure that's part of it too.

However, the Dow finished higher. Which is one metric that you use to gauge the market's(me too) view on this.

Most importantly, when was the last time you saw the almighty EE(best model of all, I agree) change by 10 CDD's in 2 model runs?

If we had gone UP 10 CDD's and NG was sharply lower, than we can see the clear evidence of something pulling ng in the opposite direction of weather. You keep close track of the CDD's, better than me. When was the last time the EE, dropped 10 CDD's in 2 runs?

NG did not drop while the lower CDD's were coming out like it usually does but as you know, NG has 2 completely different reactions to weather.

1. Instantaneous reactions to model updates as they come out. These are usually short lived, then we go back to trading what we did before +the new information that might be dialed in from a particular model run.

2. The overall weather pattern based on how it matches up to previous expectations. This is what really matters, especially to all position traders. If we are getting hotter and hotter, a cooler model run can spike us down for a brief period but the market will then run over those that sold for the brief spike lower because it knows THE PATTERN is what matters, not that one, instantaneous run. 

In the case of ng right now. We have traded this intense heat for almost a month, so

1. It's now REALLY old news.  

2. The pattern has been getting LESS hot based on a compilation of all models at all time frames being dialed into market expectations of how it will affect residential cooling demand edit: (the -NAO is another potential strong cooling factor that has been imposed on the pattern for 10 days now-and proven to be right)

3. This hot July will gobble up a couple hundred extra bcf vs if it wasn't hot. If we traded a bigger number early this month, when the forecast was at its highest,  why should we not go lower when the pattern is less hot, especially since the intense heat is the only bullish thing the market has going right now?

I want to be long here too but am staying disciplined to using weather, not my emotions and holding off until the heat ridge shifts farther east to maximum the heat.........instead of it shifting farther west to lower the heat in the high population areas of the East and South.

Buying on the current weather is going AGAINST the affect of weather............or better described as "the markets reaction to updates in the weather forecasts"

And its great for you to disagree with me. This is just my opinion and I can definately be wrong. If somebody disagrees with me, it forces me to look at other, very important things that I might now think are that important.

And I consider your views on ng to be as credible as anybody that I've ever known or read with views on ng.

 I'm still not at all convinced that wx had anything to do with today's big drop. I feel like you sometimes go out of your way to try to explain daily NG movements with regards to wx. Today was one of those days imo. It was down due to a combo of COVID concerns and high storage imo and this was agreed to by two different news firms. The wx remains quite hot and has actually been looking hotter for late month overall despite the 0Z EE being 5 CDD cooler, which it didn't react to even hours after it. By the way, you know as well as I that the next run that was another 5 CDD cooler is 100% irrelevant to the big drop since it came out hours after NG hit its low.

 You should know that sometimes wx is not the dominant factor. As hot as the wx remains, wx is far from the only reason NG today went to 32 cents lower than its July 7th peak. I think you're misguided here.

Also, sometimes NG is going to move in ways that cannot be explained by fundamentals of any kind. 

Waiting for thursday.

OK, thanks much Larry, I appreciate and respect that view.

"By the way, you know as well as I that the next run that was another 5 CDD cooler is 100% irrelevant to the big drop since it came out hours after NG hit its low."

If you read my explanation, you would see that I noted that and explained it. The most powerful price moving force is THE changes in the weather PATTERN.

Pattern recognition is a meteorologists best friend. The EE model has been cooling BECAUSE OF the pattern changes that it did not see earlier but the market did.

Also, a meteorologist is only worth their oats if they can do BETTER than models............anticipate changes in future model updates. Otherwise, why not just have Tom, Dick or Harry deliver the data on the models and everybody from every source agrees with the weather pattern every day...........ok, if it's TOM SKILLING, thats another story (-:

As I have been showing on the weather page since 10 days ago:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56037/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56324/

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Thursday            

                By metmike - July 17, 2020, 4:36 p.m.            

"Also, the NAO dives lower in the last several days of the forecast on half of the solutions today.  If this happens, more troughing and cooling is likely in the high population areas of the East. 

It's more useful in Winter as a tool but even with slight weighting in my view, it goes in the cooler direction. 

I want to be long ng but need to see a legit meteorological reason for the heat ridge to shift much farther east, where the most people live. "

Friday(July 10th): -AO, -NAO(bring the risk for cooler air to push farther south into the Midwest) but increasing to 0 at the end of 2 weeks. +PNA decreasing to near 0 at the end of 2 weeks.

Saturday: -AO/-NAO favor less heat than the models predict in the Northern Tier.  +PNA drops to near 0 late.

Sunday: Still -AO/-NAO favors less heat northern tier to northern half to Northeast. PNA near 0.

Tuesday: Still the -AO and -NAO favoring less heat northern parts of US to Northeast. PNA a tad positive.

Sunday, July 19, 2020: -NAO continues. Potential for more cooling than model solutions show in the Upper Midwest to East.  PNA has a huge spread and uncertainty late week 2. Higher potential for some big changes to the model solutions late in week 2 because of this(and less reliability in individual solutions). Regardless, none of this strongly suggests the pattern will not continue to feature a large area of hot weather, especially in the S.half of the US.

Monday(20th): Still negative NAO has me leaning a bit cooler than models in the northern half of the country. AO and PNA near 0.

If I mentioned this almost every day the past 10 days as being a potentially significant factor in more cooling coming ahead in the models(and you can see that I have it documented here, stating exactly that(-not to brag but to show that it was there for me and the market to see and trade), there clearly must be alot of others looking at the big weather picture(not just models, that we know have low skill in week 2).

And if it was bad analysis or didn't happen, then thats a different story. 

Coincidence? Highly unlikely since the correlation was exactly as expected. The market acted exactly like it should with cooling ahead vs the previous forecasts. I didn't think we could fall so much in one day like we did today...........but it's ng. That's how it always trades.......over reacting on some days.

Here is how Natural Gas Intelligence explained todays sharply lower move:

August Natural Gas Futures Dive Lower Following Forecasts for Easing Heat Intensity

Absent other demand catalysts, a modest pullback in the intensity of heat expected by forecasters was enough to push down August natural gas futures on Monday as coronavirus concerns and worries about meager export levels lingered. The August Nymex contract declined 7.7 cents day/day and settled at $1.641/MMBtu. Futures were off more than 10 cents… 

   July 20, 2020

 Attributing the bulk of today's drop to wx is fake news imo. Even the not so good NG Intelligence says COVID was very much involved. Without COVID, any drop today would have been very small imo.

Thanks Larry!

This is a pretty good buying set up for me.......but I'm waiting for the weather to start getting hotter. 

If it stops getting cooler, like it has been, that could support ng way down here(uncertain) but I want to see that heat ridge shift much farther east.

It would be nice if the -NAO also increases to at least 0, along with that theme.

How about you?

Maybe or maybe not. It depends on Covid.

I have to agree with Larry on this. Weather has played it's part. But there are other influences involved. Lower exports. Lower well counts. Even lower weather expectations. And covid is affecting this market just as much as every other market. Even if we think it shouldn't. It's a matter of herd mentality. And maintaining a balance, that seems unpredictable in these times.

Thanks mark,

So where do you see ng going?

BTW,

If you read all my posts above you will note that I acknowledge other factors numerous times, including negative seasonals in July.

I’ll try to post charts tomorrow.

But I trade exclusively off of the influence of weather.

Joe,

Thanks for that detailed information and the links!

Mike.

Winter is coming. Eventually, the countries that buy our NG, will have to get back at it, regardless of the virus. Businesses and countries are going to have to come back online for economic purposes.  The disruption of people's lives will have to end. Or else.

With NG sitting on the bottom, wherever that ends up being, there won't be any way to go but up. And anxious traders will drive it hard.

 The move up this morning of NG had nothing to do with wx forecast changes because they have been net cooler, including still another 6-7 CDD cooler on the overnight EE. It did move down some that peaked at a low of 1.623 between 7:15 and 7:30 AM EDT but then rebounded strongly afterward up to as high as 1.681 that had nothing to do with morning wx changes since none of them have been warmer.

 Maxar was 4 CDD cooler this morning for an example of the pro mets. I'm sure that was typical.

Sometimes, NG moves in a different direction from where daily wx fcast changes would suggest for a myriad of reasons.

Thanks Mark,

Winter comes every year and prices usually start going up in August, last thru October as the risk premium gets dialed in.

November is the WEAKEST month for ng trading of the year historically. Much colder than average temps will change that and each year is different but traders buying just before Winter starts in anticipation of cold causing prices to go up is usually how the shorts make the most money. 

I have been contacted several times by hucksters around October trying to sell me on buying March heating oil calls. 

I usually have fun with them.

One guy after being perplexed on how I knew so much more than him gave me the best response ever.

After I explained to him what I do and that if I was going to trade HO options, I would only be SELLING them and doing the exact opposite of what he was trying to sucker gullible people into doing.  He wanted people to send 5K, use 4K to buy the March HO calls and the other 1K commission for him.

He didn't bat an eyelash. 

"We can SELL HO calls for you if that's what you want to do!"

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Oil Prices Hit Four-Month High On Vaccine Hopes

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56402/

Stock market a bit  higher for the week, crude higher for the week on COVID but NG is modesty lower for the week and well  below the previous 2 weeks lows. 

The correlation of ng prices this week to COVID continues to get busted.

Weather models..............Cooler this week exactly in tandem with prices.

Still looking to buy here. 

Mike,

 NG has been as high as 1.681, up 4 cents and that was not on daily wx change because as even you're saying there were no warmer forecast changes. NG rising 4 cents this morning, if anything, could have been tied to a higher DOW. Who knows? But it obviously wasn't wx forecast change related.

COVID has absolutely been a major factor at times for NG in 2020 since Feb. regardless of whether or not NG moved in tandem with the DOW on any particular day.

"COVID has absolutely been a major factor at times for NG in 2020 since Feb."

And you have read me stating that many dozens of times in 2020 Larry, so we agree again on this.

But the main affect THIS week is the weather models cooling off.

We disagree on that. I am just providing facts to show why NG is not following COVID news this week and why its moving with the weather.

Yes, we got up to that high today and the COVID vaccine news probably gave it the boost..............still WELL below the lows of trading of the last 2 weeks.  Why only look at highs every day, like last Fri  and today to use to confirm what you think?

It happens to every trader but I am just pointing it out. 

And I'm not saying that NG can't go higher or lower today or the rest of the week from new COVID news like it has at times earlier this year.

So we can go back to agreeing on the affect at that point.

We have some bullish EIA numbers coming up and though dialed in expectations happened earlier this month because that weather already happened, I would think that traders would be hesitant to sell down here when there could be a huge bullish surprise.......COVID should not be affecting residential cooling demand much.

One could made a case in it increasing with more people at home.

Again, this is a great place to be long with limited risk for numerous reasons, so we agree solidly on almost everything Larry.

I am not recommending being long just giving my oversight.

Tuesday's weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56409/

 NG has been strong all day, which is definitely not due to wx updates, including lunchtime/12Z runs, which have all been bearish (fewer CDDs). No doubt about this.

 The Dow being strong may be a factor. But I think yesterday's drop from already low prices was overdone considering upcoming small draws.

Agree completely with that Larry,

Yesterdays drop WAS overdone..............in typical ng trading. 

On many days in ng, traders, especially big traders have the same mentality.............they want to buy or they want to sell and its turns into a route from the imbalance of orders from one side.........that can only be filled with a price move strongly in the direction needed to generate the volume needed to offset the much greater number of orders from one side at the current price. 

All markets trade based on this principle but in ng, sometimes we get this mob mentality and piling on in one direction is the rule for short periods.......going well beyond what makes sense based on the small change in the fundamentals the market might have been fed that day.

This sort of thing is more prone to happen on Monday's, when the market decides to play catch up(and then some) with the weekend being closed. 

The CDD's decreased again today on the EE and GE, most important models, so the market was NOT trading that or weather in its assessment for the value/price compared to yesterday.  But the over reaction down yesterday, even with today's bounce, leaves the current price BELOW the lowest levels of the previous 2 weeks of trade. So having the entire trade today remain BELOW those lows from most of July before yesterday is even more revealing.

NG was worth a bit more than it was on Monday but not as much as it was thru the previous 2+ weeks......yet. 

Put another way from a technical perspective. If you are long from earlier in the month, would you rather have the price close to the July highs, with a small set back today reducing your profits and making you nervous orrrrrr would you rather have the price trading much closer to the lows, like it is, with a big drawdown and HOPES that now, we finally hit the lows?

GFSE cooled another notch.

Dang, it keeps doing the opposite of what I'd like to see in order to get long........which is to INCREASE the heat!

Regardless, this is still a good buying set up (with the right conditions) that, for me could never be a short here.

August Natural Gas Futures Recover Ground Amid Cooling Demand Expectations, Signs of LNG Improvement

August natural gas futures gathered momentum on Tuesday, buoyed by expectations for strong near-term cooling demand and new indications that U.S. exports could recover later in 2020. The August Nymex contract climbed 3.4 cents day/day and settled at $1.675/MMBtu. September gained 3.0 cents to $1.714.  NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. lost a half-cent to $1.615.… 

There are 2 natural gas seasonal graphs below.

The top one is very updated....1999-2019.  The one below that is thru 10 years ago, 1991-2009. 

They are almost identical thru early August............then really deviate tremendously!

What are some things we might learn from this? I would appreciate Larry and others chiming in with views.

1.  Spring is an extraordinarily strong time frame for NG prices.......always has been. Something like 19 out of 20 years up for some embedded time frames.

2. Despite it being so dependable, in 2020 COVID caused the opposite to happen in unprecedented fashion. 

3. Late June, thru July is the weakest period of the year historically. We started that period this year, with near record heat and CDD's being added to the weather forecast making it MORE bullish than the seasonal pressure.

4. That support gave way in early July with the heat dialed in and the last couple of weeks are acting like a typical July down seasonal, especially with less heat(even though its still pretty hot).

5. The August seasonal has apparently changed in the last 10 years. Used to be very weak and a continuation of the weak July(maybe it was hurricane premium coming out, when most of the production was coming from the Gulf).  The more recent seasonal is nuetral for August. 

6. Then, we have both graphs lining up together with Sept and Oct being very strong months historically. 

7. Then, we have huge divergence which is very surprising to me based on what I "thought" which might be a bias. 

I always remember November as being my most profitable month in the 1990's and it was always picking the October high and being short in November. I remember lots of Halloweens, trick or treating with the kids and having an especially fun time checking price quotes on the short positions.  However, we had some very mild Novembers in the late 1990's too. ...so it makes sense.2 The 2009 seasonal shows that. However, the 2019 seasonal shows the complete opposite. The biggest difference of the year between these 2 graphs. November from the 2019 graph actually has the greatest % increase of any month. WOW!

Before commenting more, I will need to look at HDD data for November to see if the Novembers from 2010-2019 were that much colder than the Novembers from 1991-1999 that they replaced on the 20 year chart. Memory tells me yes. Recent Halloweens for me......now trick or treating with the GRAND kids have featured everybody bundled up. Last Thanksgiving featured some major cold. 

https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart  

2000-2019 seasonal below

http://www.equityclock.com/charts/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart/

The above chart represents the seasonality for Natural Gas Futures (NG) Continuous Contract for the past 19 years.

• Date range: January 1, 1991 to December 31, 2009 
• Type: Commodity Futures – US 
• Symbol: NG 

Any comments are appreciated.

EE  model coming in cooler once again, this time putting pressure on ng immediately.

E model already was cooler.

We have lost massive CCDs on the EE model the last 2 days.

Sure looks like that -NAO foretold this in advance.

Wonderful Wednesday! Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56512/

 Today, NG moved higher. That had nothing to do with updated models and forecasts as the consensus at 12Z wasn’t warmer. Actually, the EE was cooler yet again.

Thanks Larry!

I agreed completely with that on the weather thread earlier today.

"Forecasts continue to shift cooler as the have been much of the week but still uncertainty. For ng today, its likely the market will focus on a bullish EIA number on Thursday more than weather. "

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56512/

What sort of estimates do you have for the EIA on Thursday?

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

              Latest Release  Jul 09, 2020    Actual 56B   Forecast58B    Previous65B                                                                                                                                                                               https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

7 day temps from last Thursdays report. Hot in the Midwest to Northeast. Small injection!

7 day temps for Thursday, July 23, EIA report. Actually not as hot as the previous week.

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending July 17, 2020   |  Released: July 23, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 30, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            +37 BCF   bullish                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,215 Bcf as of Friday, July 17, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 37 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 656 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 436 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,779 Bcf. At 3,215 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and

With the tempering of temps, what lies ahead?

Mike,

1) +37 was not bullish vs avg expectations I saw but instead was neutral. WSJ survey average was for only +35. Your table of expectations and actual looks off by a week. Last week’s WSJ avg expectation was +46, which I think you have miixrd up in your table, too. That was also neutral. Last 3 weeks have ended up neutral.

2) Wx updates have still not gone back to bullish. Latest have been neutral overall with little change. Actually, Maxar had a 2 CDD drop this morning.

So, NG being up 13 cents above the low of 1.605 a couple of days ago and at the highest in a week cannot possibly be due to wx forecast CDD changes not  EIA storage report. It has to be other things. No doubt about it. We don’t always know what these things are. By the way, the Dow is down right now and crude is slightly down to steady. So, it isn’t up due to those factors either.

I agree Larry. +37 by itself is not very bullish. And the fact that the run ended in 30 minutes, is pretty telling. But it made a good excuse to get long for a moment. With the recent rig count starting to drop, probably added to the expectations. 

Next week, we will get supply, rig count, and export reports. Should make things interesting.

Thanks much Larry and Mark,

Maybe not bullish based on what you saw, but sure was bullish based on my expectations.

                Re: Re: Re: NG for 7/12/20+                        

                By metmike - July 22, 2020, 9:01 p.m.            

            7 day temps for Thursday, July 23, EIA report. Actually not as hot as the previous week.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I'll let the market reaction speak for itself about what the market thought.+$700/contract at the moment.

On my data above, it was posted yesterday, with the update thru yesterday that, of course would have last weeks information as the latest........if thats what you are referring to?

On the weather, the last EE, most followed model got hotter overnight +3 CDD's vs the previous run. 

On EIA report days like this, you can usually throw out the weather forecast when its such a small change like that.

Since we were close to UNCH before the report came out and now we are +$650...........and the reaction to the report was immediate......... it doesn't matter what I think. The market reaction is what matters.

We tested the highs from Friday, and are bumping up there again, so this is a key area.

A close above that today would put in a nice bottom looking formation technically.

If models start heating it up more again(like the EE did overnight), that could be a positive factor but on an EIA day like today, the reaction to the storage report usually overwhelms other factors unless other factors are pretty powerful.

If the 1.750 resistance area holds today(Fri Highs) and we Don't close above it and models cool off more, then we can go back down and weather could be a bearish factor but again, if the market is surprised enough over the EIA number, that counts the most in todays trading.

Thanks Mark!

"And the fact that the run ended in 30 minutes, is pretty telling."

Agreed, it told us that the knee jerk reaction of a $700/contract spike higher immediately following the release of the EIA data was a pretty big bullish surprise that got dialed in right away by traders expecting a less bullish number. 

After pulling back a bit, we went back up to those, after EIA report highs again, just over 1.750 just over an hour after the report.......which are Fri's highs. 

We are back up there right now.

See the comments above with regards to that.

So, NG being up 13 cents above the low of 1.605 a couple of days ago and at the highest in a week cannot possibly be due to wx forecast CDD changes not  EIA storage report. It has to be other things. No doubt about it. We don’t always know what these things are. By the way, the Dow is down right now and crude is slightly down to steady. So, it isn’t up due to those factors either."

If you read my posts above, from earlier this week,  I agree with you about the other factors........which is why I stated every day earlier this week, that the market was an ideal BUYING set up for me, despite the cooler weather updates.

I had been "hoping" for hotter models when we were down near the lows........to add some additional bullish umph to the buying.........but that didn't happen(the overnight EE was the first one that reversed the previous cooling trend).

Mike,

 The market's going to do what the market's going to do for whatever reasons (sometimes it doesn't jibe with changes in  fundamentals/sometimes it doesn't make much sense) , which are surely not due to wx to this point (one small increase on one EE after days of much larger decreases does not make wx suddenly bullish enough to bring prices up to the highest since a week ago, when CDDs were way, way higher than this latest EE) nor is it due to the EIA report coming in bullish vs expectations since expectations were near +35 and this was +37:

07/23 09:42a CST  DJ Natural Gas Rises After Storage Data -- Market Talk 
 
  10:39 ET - Natural gas prices push higher, up 1.6% to $1.71/mmBtu after 
weekly storage data showed a 37B cubic feet increase that matched the five-year 
average. The data was slightly bearish compared to forecasts in a WSJ survey 
for a 35-bcf injection, but investors nonetheless viewed the report as 
price-supportive as it shows coronavirus is still not having any oversized 
impact on inventories despite fears that shrinking US exports of LNG could soon 
make an oversupply problem much worse. Total storage now stands at 3.215T cubic 
feet, which is 26% above last year and is a 16% surplus to the five-year 
average. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)  

 I think weather's largely being ignored now and has been much of this week. Very hot forecasts have been replaced with near normal forecasts.

To help with perspective, these are the CDD's from the last 4 runs of the GFS operational model.

Obviously the operational model is more volatile but these 4 runs show the exact same thing and the last EE has it too.

We have the week 1 cooling that was dialed in early this week vs last weeks forecast(when it was still an early week 2 item).

Note the sharp bottom at the end of July and reversal higher to start August to the CDDs. This is week 2 in the forecast right now.

Note the very strong upward trajectory from all of the last 4 runs, that even gets above this current hot spell. The market cares about the direction.

Also, note the green line at the bottom, the seasonal average...........that goes lower. 

This means that the huge increase in CDD's in week 2, compared to average is even more powerful. 

 This is also why I place importance on the week 2 part of the weather.

You don't have to believe it if you don't want but all I can do is show the actual data , which can't be disputed.

Mike,

 I see no reason that changes in CDD expectations would be one of the reasons NG is way up right now. Ensemble CDDs are only slightly above normal now after having been well above normal just a few days ago. This is imo still another example when you seem to try make wx a reason when it isn't. I think this is due to confirmation bias. You seem to have a bias toward explaining most moves to be at least partially due to wx changes. I think you're flat out wrong here.

Regardless of what I think Larry.

We have 2 things that matter.

Data........and market reaction........or in the case of today, OVER reaction(which ng almost always does).

The market told us clearly by its reaction to the EIA number(DATA)  that it thought the number to be pretty bullish.

Add that to the increasing heat in the week 2 forecast(DATA-the market is not going to wait until EVERYBODY knows its getting hotter, it reacts on the first signs).......which again, the data shows and you have some pretty big bullish ammo today to feed a very cheap and oversold market primed (from the perfect buying set up earlier this week) to shoot higher.

Will Dow Jones or Natural Gas Intelligence explain it that way, so that you or I can copy it here? They will state what they think. It might agree or not but they won't have data to contradict the data above.

I can only guess that you are fixating too much on the absolute cumulative CDD number vs the previous numbers.

 I also look closely at that but that does NOT tell us where things are headed........which is what the market cares about the most. It's a futures market.  The CDD data for a model run, once out, is OLD data. Then, the market trades what it thinks the trend will be and future changes, mainly based on the week 2 changes or trends, which as you can see from THE DATA is an upward trajectory in CDD's at a time of year when they should be dropping a bit.

Do I have confirmation bias?

I am using real data. Not manipulated or cherry picked. The data is the data regardless of what I think.

You will usually note that when the news of this hits the press or shows up in the NWS extended guidance, the market  often  traded it a couple of days previous. 

Note the cooler changes in the 6-10 day and 8-14 day yesterday, when the market went higher.

The market saw these cooler changes days earlier, even  weeks earlier when they were just showing up. On Wednesday, everybody on the planet knew that we were not going to be as hot as the early July forecast.

It was very stale, OLD news.

I do NOT rely on private weather services or commentators to tell me what they think. 

They get paid alot of money by market participants that believe them. 

I do my own work using data.

Mike,

  I can dispute what data you decide to use as a primary backup for CDDs and how you use it. Now you're using the warm biased and very unreliable late days of the GFS op. The GFS op has been very warm biased this summer, the warmest of all almost every run. The more reliable ensemble runs are all much cooler and continue to be. You're clearly not going to give up your position on this and neither am I. 

"You're clearly not going to give up your position on this and neither am I."

Not true. I will change my position when you show some data to support yours.

You sited the EE as a better model and cooler than the GFS. I agree.......but it shows the EXACT SAME hotter forecast.

Here's more data.

We only have the last 2 runs of that model but as you can see from the DATA, the purple line from the last run was HOTTER on almost every day and the trajectory was higher from the EE model.

And we have a meteorological reason to support this too, which I'll show on the next page.

Mark said: "I agree Larry. +37 by itself is not very bullish. And the fact that the run ended in 30 minutes, is pretty telling. But it made a good excuse to get long for a moment."

---------------------------------------------------

 It wasn't bullish at all vs expectations of near +35 but for whatever reason there has been a lot of buying since then. Maybe many folks had been planning on buying but were waiting for that EIA to be released first. Since it was neutral and not bearish, they figured it was then safe to buy.

 I see no reason why this major buying is wx (CDD) forecast related as per my earlier posts today. Maybe these folks are anticipating a bullish change in supply coming soon like you are implying based on rig decreases??

Here's the meteorology.

I have been saying for some time that to maximize the affect of the hot pattern, we need the heat ridge to be farther east/southeast, where more people live.

The Great EE model below shows strong signs of this.

The first map below is at the end of week 1. Note the cooling trough along the East Coast that we knew about numerous days ago.

The 2nd map, towards the end off week 2 shows something different.......a Bermuda high pressure system building in from the Southeast!!!

To go along with that, the increase in CDD's is greatest in the East, where I have stated, is needed to maximize the heat.

Week 1 below

Towards the end of week 2 below:

CDD's from just the East Region, note the turn to an upward trajectory and increase EVERY day in week 2 in purple vs the previous run.

Larry,

I am not looking for these things for the first time today and suddenly stating it.

I have been saying the same thing about the forecast needing to get hotter in the East for almost the entire month.

Today was the first day with that happening on week 2 maps, definitively in weeks. 

Coincidence?

Also a coincidence that the market shot up exactly after the EIA release?

Maybe this boils down to our disagreement about how important the week 2 weather maps are to the market.

However, if we have another discussion on this down the road, I will bring this thread up as powerful evidence using data to prove that the market really does care about the week 2 trend. 

And I'm not even saying that it WILL happen, just that it seems as obvious as the nose on my face(if looking for it), meteorologically on TODAYS maps/CDD's. 

And the market did OVER react to those changes.............like it always does, making these changes seem less likely to be responsible for such a huge move.

Add in the bullish EIA(market and traders, not me) the oversold nature and cheap prices and it was the recipe for an over reaction.

I will be looking for signs of the Bermuda High strengthening but this is no longer a buying set up for me because there is way too much downside risk, with a retracement lower. 

However, continued hotter changes might alter that view.

Mike said:

"However, if we have another discussion on this down the road, I will bring this thread up as powerful evidence using data to prove that the market really does care about the week 2 trend."

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 I know that NG cares about week 2 CDD trends. But you continue to act like NG is way up today largely because of this. There's no powerful evidence that NG is up so much today largely due to week 2 wx trends. You have that in your mind that you've given strong evidence of that but what's in your mind is not necessarily what's true.

 You can bring it up all you want but you bringing it up does not make it true. I think calling much of today's rally higher CDD related is fake news.

"Maybe these folks are anticipating a bullish change in supply coming soon like you are implying based on rig decreases??"

Absolutely that plays into it Larry!  This would affect decisions made by position traders, vs day traders that, today decided to pile on with an OVER reaction from the factors that I mentioned earlier. 

We agree on that.

And the weather might go back to looking cooler from here, no way to know. But it will be very tough in inspire aggressive selling down here. 

Larry,

 " But you continue to act like NG is way up today largely because of this. There's no powerful evidence that NG is up so much today largely due to week 2 wx trends. You have that in your mind that you've given strong evidence of that but what's in your mind is not necessarily what's true.

 You can bring it up all you want but you bringing it up does not make it true. I think calling much of today's rally higher CDD related is fake news."

Please dont mischaracterize my position so that its easier for you to attack it. 

As stated numerous times for weeks now but to make my position crystal clear, here are the factors, almost all of them lining up bullish today and one of them was the change in weather from earlier in the week. I trade weather, so I showed to evidence of that one.

1. This weeks price and fundamental pattern has been an ideal buying set up because of the limited downside risk that I have mentioned

2. The market has been greatly oversold and dropped near the lows and is at historically low prices.

3. Also mentioned repeatedly, the ng rig count is at a record low. At some point in the near future, supplies will be dropping more than enough to offset the demand destruction from Industrial and exports. Impossible to time when exactly the market will react to it............possibly THIS IS IT!

4.  I don't care what anybody says about the EIA number. I was expecting it to be higher and it was a bullish surprise to me but what I think counts ZERO, not 1 iota.......except for my personal trading account. How the market reacts counts everything. The immediate spike to $700/contract could not have been a stronger bullish reaction for the market to tell us what the market thought. Compare it to what the predictions were from the predicting guru's if you want but what they thought didn't matter either. 

5. I already went over the weather changes ad nauseum. 

Item's 1-3 set the stage for items 4-5, that were the NEW news today.

However, all 5 had to be present to maximize a reaction like this.

I am absolutely NOT saying this was all from weather.  If the other factors had been negative, the price move based on weather would have been greatly muted.

You know well that ng frequently over reacts. I also discussed that much earlier in this thread(scroll up to my July 19 post) to explain why we spiked 3,000/contract higher a month ago real quickly from the weather forecast turning hotter.

This is the EXACT same thing happening but with additional supportive bullish factors being stronger right now. 

Mike, Mark, and others:

EE CDD anomalies for days 11-14/NG closing price

7/17 0Z run: +11 

7/17 12Z run: +10/$1.718

7/20 12Z run: +9/$1.641

7/21 0Z run: +6

7/21 12Z run: +5/$1.675

7/22 0Z run: +4

7/22 12Z run: +4/$1.681

7/23 0Z run: +6/$1.785

- So, the latest completed EE, this morning's 7/23 0Z run, had +6 CDD anomaly for days 11-14, combined. NG closed way up at $1.785.

- The 7/20 12Z EE days 11-14 had 3 higher (+9 CDDs) and yet NG was 14 cents lower (closed at $1.641).

- The 7/17 EE runs had an even higher +10 to +11 CDDs (or 4 to 5 higher than this morning's run) and yet NG then closed 7 cents lower than today.

- Even in today's 0Z EE, the hottest days by a good margin are for 7/26-7 with ~16 CDD/day. They're still only 15 CDD/day at the end of the run and were 16/day on runs of a few days ago.

  Therefore, I find it very hard to believe that one EE run (the latest) having had an increase of a mere 2 CDD over the prior run, which itself is still much cooler than recent runs as shown above, was a primary reason NG closed so much higher than recent days. There's a whole lot more to it than that. And it isn't because of the warm biased operational GFS runs  late days either imo. But no matter what I say, I don't expect to convince Mike. He tends to take on a position and stick to it very strongly in most cases and write about it over and over. I think it is due to confirmation bias, which Mike, himself, has posted about.

Mike said: "However, if we have another discussion on this down the road, I will bring this thread up as powerful evidence using data to prove that the market really does care about the week 2 trend."

 I said: 

"You can bring it up all you want but you bringing it up does not make it true. I think calling much of today's rally higher CDD related is fake news."

Then Mike said:

"Please dont mischaracterize my position so that its easier for you to attack it."

-------------------------------------------------------------------

My new response to Mike: 

 You saying you'll bring this thread up "as powerful evidence using data to prove that the market really does care about the week 2 trend" implies that you do think much of today's rally was based on the week 2 wx trend. If you don't think much of today's rise was related to week 2 trends, then why are you talking about it so much? I think at best it was a minimal influence and that it was mainly due to other factors. So do you agree that it was no more than a minimal influence with that so we can stop talking about this over and over? I do have other things I need to do.

Fwiw:

07/23 01:55p CST  DJ Natural Gas Ends 6.2% Higher After Storage Data -- Market 
Talk 
 
  14:55 ET - Natural gas prices post their biggest one-day gain so far this 
month, rising 6.2% to $1.785/mmBtu, the highest closing price in nearly two 
weeks, following a weekly storage report that was in-line with the 
five-year-average and close to forecasts. Traders say the outsized reaction to 
a rather average storage report suggests speculative investors may have pushed 
prices artificially lower in recent days despite very hot weather that 
continues to keep demand healthy and inventory levels in check. EIA says 
storage rose by 37B cubic feet, matching the five-year average, and just 
slightly above the 35-bcf forecast in a WSJ survey of analysts. Total storage 
remains at a 16% surplus to the average. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)  
 
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires 

Again, Larry,

You remain fixated on the absolute value in the change of 1 run from the previous one in total CDD's and in fact, this time absurdly just the last 3 days in the period.

You are acting like I am saying that only the 11-14 day part of the forecast matters so that you can attack it Larry.

Stop doing that please. 

The market trades on PATTERN CHANGES and TRENDS!

One run of the EE means nothing.......unless it suggests a pattern change. This is why week 2 is so important.......its the time frame we look at to see PATTERN CHANGES. 

Your cherry picking of examples of earlier this month, when the EE had an increase in CDD's but the price went down, ignores the fact that the trend and overall forecast was getting cooler. Maybe you didn't see it but the market did..........ahead of when the NWS 6-10/8-14 day showed it(yesterday). The market saw the -NAO and other factors.

We also had an extreme, OVER reaction to the hottest forecast in history in early July. You also failed to note some cooling at earlier periods of that forecast.

Please stop mischaracterizing my position and statements. Refer to the previous post on that.

Like I said earlier.

The person(s) who gets paid to write articles for Dow Jones put down their thoughts, which are not any better than mine at times..... and are probably BETTER than mine at many times.

Then, there is the market reaction and the objective data. 

When using authentic (not cherry picked) data.......it takes out the bias. 

Nothing they, you or me think or say  can change that. 

WOW!  This is a new record for posts in a thread!!

 I'm done. Mike and I strongly disagree, period, about the anticipated wx's effect on today's pricing. He thinks the market is now anticipating a warmer pattern change and that it had a good bit of influence. We look at things differently, which is ok.

 You're posting an opinion with supporting data. I'm posting an opinion with different supporting data. We don't see things the same way. I'm now going to step away from here. I've got a sick brother to attend to.

PS Thet DJ comments about today's EIA are based on the average guess from an actual survey of many, not on just one person's opinion.

"If you don't think much of today's rise was related to week 2 trends, then why are you talking about it so much? "

Larry,

It would have resulted in, probably one post by me until you attacked it relentlessly.

ALL the other posts after that.......ALL of them are defending against your attacks by showing the authentic, objective data and weather as evidence. 

When you claimed the GFS is too warm and the EE is better, I showed the same exact thing/Trend in the EE. 

All of these posts are just responding to you Larry.

I don't have to be right. I am wrong plenty of times.

But if you are attacking my legit position in my field of expertise that I have massive data to show why I have that position..........of course I will show it. 

I am not claiming I am any smarter than you either. Your expertise exceeds mine in many areas, including some elements of ng trading and even weather, which is my field.

Don't think for a moment that I have this position because of anything other than looking at the authentic data.

I'm so sorry to hear about your brother Larry.

What's going on with him?

 Thanks, Mike. He's a very obese, diabetic with a kidney transplant and who has been living with me for several years. If that were not enough, he's got severe chronic lower back pain, which makes him disabled/largely bedridden. And if that were not enough, incontinence is becoming more of a problem, too. Wearing adult diapers does nothing. Getting to the bathroom with his walker is very hard due to this combo of back pain and incontinence.

 He's had repeated infections due to having to take immune system suppressing meds to keep his body from rejecting the kidney. He's now in the hospital with the latest in a series of many UTIs. A UTI in someone like him can be very dangerous. The incontinence only increases the risk of getting a UTI. He has had over 103 F temperature this past weekend. Fortunately he has improved markedly. I was allowed with him in the ER room for 48 hours but then I was told to leave when he got a regular room due to Covid restrictions. So, I talk to him but can't visit.

 Out of love, I'm doing my best to take care of him and keep him home. Neither of us will accept him going to a nursing home. We're working on getting increased care at home to help both of us. He's only in his early 60s!

Larry,

Your brother is very fortunate to have a caring/loving/dedicated person like you taking care of him.

I admire you greatly for this and am proud to have somebody like you posting here.

No doubt you constantly think about his compromised immune system(because of immunosuppresants) , making him extraordinarily vulnerable if infected with COVID. 

Did his diabetes cause the kidney failure? 

I wish there was something that I could do to help you and feel bad that our disagreement earlier today didn't help with your stress. 

Just know that you are the type of guy that I would like as a brother or friend and during the most challenging times, its easiest to overlook things to be grateful for. ......which includes advanced medicine, science and technology that without, your brother wouldn't be here.

So cherish the moments with him. Be happy for your own good health and be happy for him that he has you.

You should ask yourself a silly question.

Is my brothers life better or worse because of me?

So no matter how bad his health might be, much of it beyond anybody's control, try not to  overlook the significance of you making things better for him, which is all you can do. There isn't anything more important in this world than that. 

This is awareness(of our actions benefiting others) is a profoundly rewarding experience that all altruistic people like you, deserve to the max!

                               

Altruism

Generosity

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/altruism

"Altruism is acting to help someone else at some cost to oneself. It can include a vast range of behaviors, from sacrificing one’s life to save others, to giving money to charity or volunteering at a soup kitchen, to simply waiting a few seconds to hold the door open for a stranger. Often, people behave altruistically when they see others in challenging circumstances and feel empathy and a desire to help."

metmike: I found out today, that my friend WxFollower is an altruistic guy!

 I appreciate the kind words, Mike, but it isn’t anything most anyone else close to their sibling wouldn’t do if they were able, which I am fortunate about. There still are times we get frustrated with each other and let each other know. Sometimes I feel guilty when I get mad since he’s not in good health. So, I try not to, but I sometimes can’t help it and assume venting is good for anyone.

Yeah, maybe you feel guilty for me painting you as a saint when the reality, is that as a human being you get upset and frustrated with him.

Maybe he even takes you for granted. 

Maybe he isn't doing what he should for himself and not cooperating..........which is the least you should expect right?

Maybe he thinks that part of the reason that ng went higher today was weather   

With regards to venting. 

I think it's very good to be honest with people, even sometimes when the truth hurts.

However, when we tell somebody that we care about the truth during an outburst of anger (venting) it causes many of the points to be lost because the other person feels attacked more than feeling like they are receiving constructive or loving criticism that comes from saying the same thing while calm/emotions aren't ramped up.

I can tell by your really strong feelings expressed here for Trump that when somebody or something really bothers you, you don't hold back.

This is part of who you are and I don't want to lecture you more on suggestions or points when I don't really know that much about you. 

I think that we can all be better people by reducing anger and making a habit out of thinking positive, especially viewing others positive attributes. 

Life is short as they say and telling somebody something nice, makes them and us feel better than telling them something not nice. By thinking about that enough and doing it, we can make that a habit.  People, in turn respect a person that treats them like that.........which is the most important thing for most of us.........even more than money..........to be respected by other people because they know you have integrity. 

Is this a ng thread or what?

 That’s a good one about NG & wx <G>!

 Yeah, one of the things that frustrates me the most is that he doesn’t try to help himself as much as I feel he can. For example: not doing enough bed exercises. He’ll do some when I’m in the room, but he doesn’t do much otherwise on most days. He sometimes blames back pain. The other thing is that he doesn’t show a strong enough desire to diet for weight loss. He watches his sodium well but he gets frustrated with me when I bring up that he should count calories. He’ll say “I have too many other things to deal with”.

You probably feel like he's acting like a kid and you're acting like his mom...........and you don't want that relationship as grown adults.................you  just want to be his brother/friend!

 Yeah, I feel that way sometimes and it feels uncomfortable. That's especially the case since he's older. When we were kids, he was somewhat domineering at times and thus intimidating to me (I didn't want to make him mad) due to my being younger and much shorter/lighter. So, sometimes it feels like a role reversal when I push a bit on the exercising and other things I feel he should do more of. But unfortunately, his kind of slack behavior puts pressure on me to be that way at times because I love my bro dearly and want him to live as long as possible and also try to get him stronger and feel better. Ever since our assertive mom passed, he actually said he missed that assertiveness because it helped push him to do some beneficial things. He realizes he needs to be pushed! But then when I push him myself, he sometimes doesn't like it. I try to be calm with a nice tone at first, but then my tone may start showing frustration if I sense he doesn't care.

 We have very different personalities. But most of the time we're like friends discussing things, being silly, and watching TV shows we both like. And we both agree about Trump. <G>.

 Yes, mainly diabetes lead to KF.