KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, July 16, 2020
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1008.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1334.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 251.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 1250K; previous 1314K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -99K)
Continuing Claims (previous 18062000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -698K)
8:30 AM ET. June Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +5.2%; previous +17.7%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +5.0%; previous +12.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +12.4%)
8:30 AM ET. July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 20.0; previous 27.5)
Prices Paid (previous 11.1)
Employment (previous -4.3)
New Orders (previous 16.7)
Prices Received (previous 11.0)
Delivery Times (previous 0.4)
Inventories (previous 0.0)
Shipments (previous 25.3)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 62; previous 58)
10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected -2.3%; previous -1.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3133B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +56B)
4:00 PM ET. May Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, July 17, 2020
8:30 AM ET. June New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.15M; previous 0.974M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +18.1%; previous +4.3%)
Building Permits (expected 1.28M; previous 1.220M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +4.9%; previous +14.4%)
10:00 AM ET. June Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 77.8; previous 78.9)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 73.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 87.8)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday after the Fed’s account of business activity in its 12 districts across the nation showed investment activity picking up but still marred by the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has extended the rally off June's low as corporate earnings have come in better than expected and progress is being made toward a COVID-19 vaccine, even as cases of the deadly infection rise. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 8th high crossing at 27,580.21 are needed to renew the rally off March's low. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,448.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 11th gap crossing at 26,938.05. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 27,580.21. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,448.22. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at 24,843.18.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,308.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 11,058.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,308.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9791.78.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3117.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 8th high crossing at 3216.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3117.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3041.61.
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September T-bonds closed down 19/32's at 179-22.
September T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's lows, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 181-14. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-23. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 174-29.
September T-notes closed down 5-pts. At 139.105.
September T-notes closed slightly lower on Wednesday while extending the March-July trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.243 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's high, March's high crossing at 139.250 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 139.225. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.070. Second support is June's low crossing at 136.220.
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August crude oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher trading is possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 25th low crossing at $37.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $41.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20. First support is the June 25th low crossing at $37.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $36.03.
August heating oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $125.83. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.76.
August unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 141.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 132.53. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 141.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.67.
August Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.730 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the July 7th high crossing at 1.924 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 7th high crossing at 1.924. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.960. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.730. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.655.
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The September Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes this year's decline, March's low crossing at 94.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.97 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 30th high crossing at 97.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.84. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 95.87. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.70.
The September Euro closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 115.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 114.58. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 115.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.31. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.94.
The September British Pound closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2448 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 1.2819 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1.2694. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.2819. First support isthe 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2448. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.2256.
The September Swiss Franc posted a huge key reversal down on Wednesday while extending the June-July trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0599 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.0701. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759. First support is the June 30th low crossing at 1.0513. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0485.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 23rd high crossing at 74.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 23rd high crossing at 74.17. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.02. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at 72.92.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, June's high crossing at 0.0944 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0933 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is July's low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912.
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August gold closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off the June 5th low, monthly resistance crossing at $1832.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1785.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $1829.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1832.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1785.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1753.10.
September silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, last-September's high crossing at 20.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.506 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 19.815. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 20.020. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 18.986. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.506.
September copper closed lower on Wednesday as it posted a key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 274.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 299.30. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 283.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 274.94.
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December Corn closed down a $0.00 1/4-cents at $3.34.
December corn closed fractionally higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at $3.13 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.47 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.47 3/4. July's high crossing at 3.63. First support is today's low crossing at $3.30 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.13 1/2.
December wheat closed up $0.21 1/4-cents at $5.54 1/4.
December wheat closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.08 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.53. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.17 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.08 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.16 3/4-cents at $4.71.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday ending a three-day correction off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $4.74 3/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.55 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.55. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.09-cents at $5.40 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low the June 18th high crossing at $5.49 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.32 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is June's low crossing at $5.22 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2.
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November soybeans closed up $0.05 3/4-cents at $8.83 1/4.
November soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends Monday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.68 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.92 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.68 1/2. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $8.56 3/4.
December soybean meal closed up $1.00 at $293.30.
December soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the losses of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends Monday's decline June's low crossing at $287.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $300.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $300.20. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $306.50. First support is today's low at $290.70. Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil closed up 30-pts. At 29.39.
December soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday confirming yesterday's key reversal up marked a short-term low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.39 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 29.64. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.39. Second support is June's low crossing at 27.74.
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August hogs closed up $0.25 at $50.18.
August hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $54.33 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at $44.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $54.33. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is June's low crossing at $47.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at $44.76.
August cattle closed up $3.00 at $101.80.
August cattle closed limit up on Wednesday as it posted a key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.95. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at $93.58.
August Feeder cattle closed up $3.10-cents at $139.83.
August Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $133.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $139.83. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $133.53. Second support is June's low crossing at $128.67.
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September coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 94.55. Closes above July's high crossing at 10.46 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term.
September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 20.89 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 10.70 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.49 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.