KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, July 24, 2020
9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 52.0; previous 49.6)
9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 51.0; previous 46.7)
10:00 AM ET. June New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 702K; previous 76K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +3.8%; previous +16.6%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.6)
N/A Utah Pioneer Day
Monday, July 27, 2020
8:30 AM ET. June Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +15.8%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +15.5%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +4.0%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
Shipments: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
10:30 AM ET. July Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -6.1)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 13.6)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it extends this week's decline due to rising concerns over the rise of the Covid-19 virus and rising U.S.-China Tensions. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,534.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the July 13th high crossing at 11,058.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,534.17. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,019.72.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3159.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, February's high crossing at 3387.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3284.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3387.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3212.77. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3159.40.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for steady to lower opening is possible when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 179-20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. From a broad perspective, closes above the April-21st high crossing at 181-15 or below June's low crossing at 170-30 are needed to confirm a breakout of the April-July trading range. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 181-15. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 179-20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-00.
September T-notes were slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging and poised to turn neutral to bearish signaling that a double top with March's high crossing at 139.250 might be forming. If September extends the rally off June's low, March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.279 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above March's high crossing at 139.250 or below June's low crossing at 136.220 are needed to confirm a breakout of the March-July trading range. First resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. Second resistance is March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.101. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.279.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates around the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.72.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 10th low crossing at $38.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.38. First support is the July 10th low crossing at $38.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $38.21.
September heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $129.95. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $131.31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $124.02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.18.
September unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this week's rally, June's high crossing at $130.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $130.90. Second resistance is the 62%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $142.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.19. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $110.99.
September Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.863 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 1.583 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.863. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.989. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.646. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.583.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it test key support marked by March's low crossing at $94.71. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, the September 2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 93.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.31. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.17. First support is March's low crossing at $94.71. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart marked by the September 2018 low crossing at 93.39.
The September Euro was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $117.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $116.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $117.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $114.84. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.85.
The September British Pound was mostly steady overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 1.2819 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2495 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.2819. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2952. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2495. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.2256.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0850 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0656 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0842. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0850. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0669. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0656.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the June 26th low crossing at 72.92. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a double top with June's high might be forming. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.43.
The September Japanese Yen was sharply higher overnight and poised to test resistance marked by June's high crossing at 0.0944. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 0.0944 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is July's low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher overnight for the sixth trading session in a row as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off the June 5th low, the all-time high price crossing at $1923.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1815.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $1897.70. Second resistance is the all-time high price crossing at $1923.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1834.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1815.50.
September silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, weekly resistance marked by the August 2013 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 25.120 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $19.740 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $23.670. Second resistance is the August 2013 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 25.120. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $20.906. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $19.740.
September copper was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8449 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 2.9930. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8449. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.6564.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. Thelow-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $3.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.41 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.41 3/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $3.63. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.30. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.22.
December wheat was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.22 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.53. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.22 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.96.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.631/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is Monday's low crossing at $4.45. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this month's decline, weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 10th high crossing at $5.43 1/2. Second resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. First support is Monday's low crossing at $5.19 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off last-Monday's low, July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.90 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.90 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.75 1/4.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $287.50 is the next downside target. If December extends this week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $306.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 13th gap crossing at $299.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $306.50. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $290.70 Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 31.06. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 31.16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.44.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $1.75 at $54.40.
August hogs closed higher on Friday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at $53.29 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends today's rally, June's high crossing at $58.03 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at $44.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $54.95. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is June's low crossing at $47.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at $44.76.
August cattle closed down $0.58 at $100.92.
August cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.50.
August Feeder cattle closed up $0.38-cents at $141.88.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $137.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $143.83. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $140.24. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $137.18.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends Wednesday's rally, May's high crossing at 11.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.02 would confirm that a short-term top.
September cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.84 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 20.89 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 10.70 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.34 signals that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.