INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 3, 2020, 8:04 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, August 3, 2020 



9:45 AM ET. July US Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (previous 49.8)



10:00 AM ET. July ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI



                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 53.8; previous 52.6)



                       Prices Idx (previous 51.3)



                       Employment Idx (previous 42.1)



                       Inventories (previous 50.5)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 56.4)



                       Production Idx (previous 57.3)



10:00 AM ET. June Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place



                       New Construction (expected +1.2%; previous -2.1%)



                       Residential Construction



11:00 AM ET. July Global Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (previous 47.8)



4:00 PM ET. July Domestic Auto Industry Sales



Tuesday, August 4, 2020 



7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.1%)



                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous -8.5%)



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +1.1%)



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -7.2%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous -8.7%)



9:45 AM ET. July ISM-NY Report on Business



                       Business Index (previous 39.5)



10:00 AM ET. SEC Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee Meeting



10:00 AM ET. Aug IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index



                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 44.0)



                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 37.3)



10:00 AM ET. June Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)



                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +5.0%; previous +8.0%)



                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +7.6%)



                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +2.6%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.3%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M%



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -6.8M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.2M)


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to positive signs on the economic recovery and a number of deal news. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-week's rally, the July 13th high crossing at 11,058.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 24th low crossing at 10,301.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 10,992.00. Second resistance is the July 13th high crossing at 11,058.50. First support is the July 24th low crossing at 10,301.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,202.86.



The September S&P 500 was higher overnight and remains poised to renew the rally off March's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 3387.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3207.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July's high crossing at 3284.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3387.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3207.85. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3127.51. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for steady to lower opening is possible when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off  June's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 182-26. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-17. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-12.



September T-notes were slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.168 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 140.060. Second resistance is March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.168. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.319.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $39.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $39.18. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at $37.32.  



September heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 21st high crossing at $129.95. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $131.31. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing  at $120.22. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at $115.64.  



September unleaded gas was lower overnight while extending the June-July trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's decline, the June 29th low crossing at $110.99 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off April's low, June's high crossing at $130.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $130.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $142.00. First support is the June 29th low crossing at $110.99. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $109.43.  



September Henry natural gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 1.989 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.817 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.989. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 2.042. First support is the July 20th low crossing at 1.646. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.583.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher due to short covering in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a  steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.If September extends this year's decline, the May 14th 2018-low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 92.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $93.97. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.16. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $92.51. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart marked by the May 14th 2018 low crossing at 92.12.  



The September Euro was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.42 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, the March 18th high crossing at $119.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $119.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $116.09. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.42.



The September British Pound was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2747 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3174. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2905. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2747.  



The September Swiss Franc was sharply lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0765 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.1056. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0886. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0765. 



The September Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If September renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.15. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.81.



The September Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0939 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0939. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0934. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS:August gold was lower overnight as it consolidates recent gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1866.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1984.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1923.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1866.50.  



September silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.573 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $26.275. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $23.714. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.574. 



September copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Last-Friday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8976 opens the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 13th high crossing at 2.9930. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.8310. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.7185. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. Thehigh-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $3.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.39. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $3.63. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $3.25 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.22.      



December wheat was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.  Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 20th low crossing at $5.24 1/4 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If December renews the rally off June's low, 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.53. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the July 20th low crossing at $5.24 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.20 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.61 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is July's low crossing at $4.45. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.         



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this month's decline, weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 10th high crossing at $5.43 1/2. Second resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. First support is July's low crossing at $5.19 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.07 1/4 is the next upside target. If November resumes last week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.80 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.80 1/4. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at $8.71 1/2.      



December soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $306.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $296.20 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $306.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $308.90. First support is July's low crossing at $290.70. Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.  

    

December soybean oil was higher overnight as it has renewed the rally off March's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 31.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.17. 

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