KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, August 6, 2020
7:30 AM ET. July Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -57%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 1423K; previous 1434K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +12K)
Continuing Claims (previous 17018000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +867K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 609.4K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 3602K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 676.6K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3241B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +26B)
12:00 PM ET. July Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, August 7, 2020
8:30 AM ET. July U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +1482K; previous +4800K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 10.6%; previous 11.1%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.37)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous -0.35)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected -0.7%; previous -1.18%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.0%; previous +5.04%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.2)
Government Payrolls (previous +33K)
Private Payroll (previous +4767K)
Participation Rate (previous 61.5%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. June Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected -2.0%; previous -1.2%)
3:00 PM ET. June Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +10.0B; previous -18.2B)
Monday, August 10, 2020
10:00 AM ET. July Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 49.05)
ETI, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. June Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply higher on Wednesday as better-than-expected corporate earnings led by Disney and bullish service-sector data outweighed a disappointing jobs report from payroll provider ADP. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends today's rally, the June 8th high crossing at 27,580.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 30th low crossing at 25,992.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 27,189.45. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 27,580.21. First support is the July 30h low crossing at 25,992.28. Second support is the July 9th low crossing at 25,523.51.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher for the sixth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the rally off the July 24th low crossing at 10,301.00. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,272.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 11,144.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 24th low crossing at 10,301.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,272.26.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, February's high crossing at 3387.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3229.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3315.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3387.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3229.43. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3148.43.
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September T-bonds closed down 28/32's at 181-29.
September T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's lows, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 183-00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-18.
September T-notes closed down 90-pts. At 140.015.
September T-notes closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of its recent gains that marked an upside breakout of the March-July trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's high, March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.017 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 140.130. Second resistance is March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.200. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.017.
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September crude oil posted its highest close on Wednesday and filled the March 6th gap crossing at $42.49 after government data confirmed a large drop in U.S. crude inventories. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher trading is possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $39.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $43.52. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $39.49. Second support is the July 10th low crossing at $38.77.
September heating oil closed higher on Wednesday. Profit taking ahead of the closed tempered early-session gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.93 would confirm that intermediate trend has turned lower. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $145.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.93. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $110.27.
September unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday due to an unexpected rise in gasoline stocks but well off session highs. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off April's low, June's high crossing at 130.90 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off July's high, the June 29th low crossing at 110.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 130.90. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 142.00. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 113.42. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 110.99.
September Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 2.271 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 1.781 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.261. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May/June decline crossing at 2.271. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.781. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.646. Third support is June's low crossing at 1.583.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes this year's decline, the May 14th 2018-low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 92.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 93.55. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.78. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 92.51. Second support is the May 14th 2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 92.12.
The September Euro closed higher on Wednesday following a two-day decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 119.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 117.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.96.
The September British Pound closed higher on Wednesday ending a three-day correction off last-Friday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2802 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3174. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2982. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2802.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0799 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.1062. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1178. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0799. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0641.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off March's low.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 75.58. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.94.
The September Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0941 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0941. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0935.
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August gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off March's low to a new all-time high.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off the March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1887.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $2050.20. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1957.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1887.90.
September silver closed higher on Wednesday posting another new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.356 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 27.250. Second resistance isthe 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 24.550. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.356.
September copper closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off March's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 283.10 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is July's high crossing at 299.30. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65. First support is Monday's low crossing at 283.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.60.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up $0.02 1/4-cents at $3.22 1/2.
December corn posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the April low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $3.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.33 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.28 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.33 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.20. Second support is April's low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $3.00 1/4.
December wheat closed up $0.00 3/4-cents at $5.17 1/4.
December wheat closed fractionally higher on Wednesday but remains below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.20 1/2. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at $4.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.34 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.53. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65. First support is today's low crossing at $5.13 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.96.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.04-cents at $4.37.
December Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at $4.16 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.54. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.60. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $4.32 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at $4.16 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged at $5.16.
December Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.26 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.26 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34. First support is today's low crossing at $5.15 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down $0.03 1/2-cents at $8.78 1/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.81 1/2 as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at $8.71 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.90 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is July's low crossing at $8.71 1/2. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $8.56 3/4.
December soybean meal closed down $1.30 at $290.10.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at $287.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $296.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $303.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $306.50. First support is Tuesday's low at $289.40. Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil closed up 3-pts. At 31.08.
December soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 31.78. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.11. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.31.
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August hogs closed down $0.23 at $49.48.
August hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $47.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $52.52 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $55.28. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is today's low crossing at $49.20. Second support is June's low crossing at $47.52.
August cattle closed up $0.28 at $102.55.
August cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.65. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.17.
August Feeder cattle closed up $0.05-cents at $144.75.
August Feeder cattle closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $150.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $141.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $145.48. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $150.58. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $141.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $136.68.
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September coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off June's low. Profit taking tempered early-session gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, March's high crossing at 12.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.69 would confirm that a short-term top.
September cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 25.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.66 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
October sugar posted a key reversal down on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, July's high crossing at 64.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.