Put it in NTR if you like Mike.
What about the election? Trump is not only rigging it by gutting the USPS, but he's preparing the refusal to admit defeat due to a fraudulent election. (He has state so multiple times). I can't imagine him admitting defeat. He lies about everything. He is a 5 year old child. And an undisciplined 5 year old child at that. What happens then? Constitutional crisis? (It's NOT priced in the market). Buy December S&P puts? Buy December gold calls?
can't argue with your points.
However, I have also wondered, what would happen if Trump wins the election. Pelosi and others have already stated that Trump must go, no matter what. Add to this the radical BLM/Antifa mob, and you have a recipe for a revolution.
your option recommendations seem reasonable for either scenario
so the dems are sending ballots to dead people, cats and dogs and Trump is wrong to try to stop the fraud....this virus has opened the doors to many new ways for libs to try to wreck a country
No one is "gutting" the USPS and the USPS is not essential to voting. (We can protest in large tightly packed groups for hours but we can't go to a voting booth). In the extremely unlikely event that Trump refuses to leave, there are plenty of mechanisms to enforce his departure, so a "constitutional crisis" is extremely unlikely. Odd, this new found respect the left has for the constitution. In the past, they've demonstrated very little knowledge of its contents while labeling it an "antiquated relic created by a group of old rich white men". Many still do when they are not feigning distress over its alleged abuse by some "conservative".
But lets discuss genuine examples of constitutional crises.
How about a president using a fraudulent warrant to use the nations assorted intelligence agencies to spy on the campaign of the opposing party making Watergate look like a cub scout gathering? Then that same former president runs a shadow government that attempts to overthrow the sitting president?
How about a former SecState shredding conventional security protocol and law and then a week after her husband "secretly" meets with the nation's AG to "discuss golf and grankids", the FBI determines that hammers and bleachbit software do not indicate intent and she's given a "get out of jail free card" for offenses far greater than those that relegated many to Leavenworth?
Three great examples that barely scratch the surface of the many examples of constitutional abuse and possible "constitutional crises" and yet, the economy continued on while equities made new highs.
The biggest threat to this nation and it's economy would be Trump's defeat and Biden's stated objectives becoming reality.
I believe we will see another "day after" reaction in the markets on Nov 4, just like last time. Trump up, Biden down. Just be ready to either put your ante up, or drag your chips off the table.
tally agree Mark. As I have a fair amount of my retirement in an IRA you should od seen me sweating last election. That is not the problem however. We still have not caught and punished all those who tired to throw the last election in favor of Hil by the coup before and after Trump won. You know what little bratty kids do that are not punished? Yes, they go right back to the bad behavior and that is what the dems are up to right now.
I'm grateful to you, joj for bringing this up again(WxFollower was afraid of the same thing..........a Constitutional crisis caused by Trump refusing to acknowledge being defeated).
It's likely that Trump will claim the election was not fair and make excuses for losing that to blame the other side (similar to what the Dems and Hillary did-blaming Russia for the 2016 loss) but the chance of a Constitutional crisis is probably 1 in a million.
Trump can say anything that he wants but this is a fake narrative that suggests that he has some sort of (non existing) power to refuse to hand over the presidency to Biden.
If/when he loses, whether he likes it or not, Biden becomes president and the rule of law proceeds with or without him.
Thinking any differently, is playing into MSM paranoia of a "dictator" who will violate the constitution for self serving needs.
If you think otherwise, please describe the possible scenario for this to unfold?
What will Trump do? Pay off a bunch of Secret Service agents to protect him and barricade himself in the White House. Name even 1 politician or even 1 person that would support him doing this if he lost the election fair and square.
Would he decree a new law, with him as the new president............with 100% of everybody in Washington against it?
To me, it's actually a pretty silly, impossible to happen notion but maybe I'm overlooking something and look forward to finding out what that is.
On the forum, when people have concerns or beliefs, we DISCUSS them and this is exactly what makes us credible vs only allowing certain views that me, or either side would prefer to see.
This(fake) Constitutional Crisis narrative theme is similar to the one that we heard for 2.5 years that was based on President Trump colluding with Russian.
It NEVER happened but we were all sold on the idea, entirely based on assigning specific nefarious traits to Trump, that he would and did do it.
Same thing here. Nefarious traits making him capable of doing something horrible.............that would be impossible for him to do.............in order to obliterate his credibility and cause people to fear him.
Even after he was exonerated with a 25 million dollar investigation and the actual evidence, shows indisputably, that ALL the corruption came from the side trying to get rid of him...people still won't believe it.
So its not surprising, that wild speculation like this about an impossible to happen result would take root.
We live in a world of manufactured realities!!!!!
Each side makes up their own scenarios/facts and their hypnotized flock believes it entirely like it actually represents the truth...........sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't.
Probably every person that hates Trump, reading this will think "there goes metmike, defending Trump again"
Wrong-a-roo.
I also greatly dislike Trump as a person. But I am infatuated by the truth.
With regards to this not being dialed into the stock market or gold prices and advising taking a position based on it.
The market will NEVER dial this in. The market has not done so yet because its smart enough to know that this could never happen.
I would bet everything that I own on no Constitutional crisis based on Trump refusing to acknowledge the election results as legit.
Have to agree with Tim on the main market reaction being to whether Trump wins or Biden wins.
The economy will clearly do MUCH better under Trump(especially using cheap, reliable, abundant and power packed fossil fuels that are the life blood of every developed economy).
With the crushing national debt and Bidens carbon(and other taxes) on the way, economy killing green new deal and so on, the future is not looking so great.
My biggest concern about the election results, by a wide margin is the reaction if Trump should somehow win.
It's the ones that oppose him to the point of being blinded by hate...........that will be on a mission to obliterate our country in the name of destroying Trump.
The divisiveness, bad enough now would be at a whole new level.
It would mean a real Civil War in our country.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/05/politics/pelosi-cnn-town-hall-impeachment-push/index.html
metmike: I don't hear or read any republicans stating such things.
The post office is like any other business, they plan for peak events....like the holidays. If you are more than 6 years old, you know the post office hires seasonal help to move holiday mail.
Now for 2020 only, people want to throw in another what....200 million pieces of mail going both ways? So theoretically 400 million pieces of mail total? Again, theoretical. Right....like that is going to work. Talk about overloading a circuit.
There is a YouTube video where a guy sends himself about 100 "votes" and I think he gets something like 95 of them back? So right off the top, mail has a 5% error rate. If I was Trump and I lost, I wouldn't accept that result either.
But let's blame Trump for decades of mismanagement of the USPS. USPS is a company that invented moving mail and packages and yet...UPS and FedEx eat their lunch while raking in profits and the post office comes with their hands out every other year looking for billions in financial help.
Go to the polls like you have done forever. If the Democrats are too lazy to get their butts there, then shame on them. Are those the kinds of people we want deciding our countries direction anyway? Dead cats and lazy people?
Sources like this are what is planting this idea in people's heads:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/20/politics/disputed-election-crisis-trump/index.html
"These experts also said congressional Republicans will play an important role in influencing Trump's behavior after the election. Though that dynamic could quickly change if Republicans lose their Senate majority, which stands at 53-47 but is in serious dangerof slipping away.
"Once we have confirmed results, should Biden win in a fair election, it'll be incredibly important for Republicans on Capitol Hill to accept those results and participate in the peaceful transition of power," said Amanda Carpenter, a CNN contributor who was a top adviser to Cruz and other conservative Republicans before turning on Trump and raising the alarmabout his behavior."
metmike: If the election results are close(down to a couple of states that were close for instance) then I can see a legit reasoning for not conceding until having the results verified.
2000 between Bush 2 and Gore took awhile, waiting for Florida.
If, however, Trump needs something like 5+ states and the margin of Biden victory is millions in those states, tell me, what Republicans are going to support him contesting the results?
It would be political suicide.
Both the House and Senate would endorse the election results unanimously, making Trump look like a fool and a complete outlier with zero support(and what reason would republicans have to continue to support him anyway).
And we start Bidens first term on time.
Republicans disappointed but all agreeing on the election and Trump supporters not rioting or burning flags or using large protesting of Biden as president or threatening to move to another country.
In the unlikely event that Trump wins.................all bets are off regarding the negative reaction by the other side.
You can bet that there will be another attempt to impeach him in 2021. There will be protesting, some with violence. There will be a continuation of millions of people hating Trump more than they love the USA.
If/when Biden is elected, there will be less hate(because the main haters will lose their reason to hate).
Biden is not as easy to hate(nobody is actually) but he won't really be an active president very long, if at all anyway and people already know he's just a puppet.
The MSM will have to completely adjust their programming. Stations like CNN, that spend a massive amount of broadcast time bashing Trump with almost 100% negative news about him will see this replaced by more objective programming/news.............this will be a good thing.
Fox will likely not spend nearly as much time on Trump............and it will diminish quickly to a trickle in 2021 but most certainly will still have a consistent anti Biden....make that anti Harris position.
I've been persuaded by a couple of legal minds, that due to the results being offered up on a state by state basis, Trump has no legal path to delay his removal (assuming he loses).
In other words, never mind.
Glad that we could assist you joj (-:
markets hate uncertainty. if it were obvious to wall street that one side or the other was a clear winner, there would be less uncertainty. if it is very, very close, and some states are still wanting to count ballots 2 weeks after the fact, then we have uncertainty. and , also, that will be the scenario that will create the constitutional crisis. no clear winner. then we could get the riots in the streets, and the big market drop.
i remember reading one author that predicted a tie in the electoral college.
i think a big threat of riots could come if biden clearly wins the popular vote by a significant margin. but trump just barely wins the electoral college. you will see large protests in favor of dumping the electoral college. the left will not be willing to accept the legal constitutional results (the electoral system).