Welcome to August.....the 19th!
Increasing rain again in the extended outlook. Mostly dry week 1 but we've known that.. It's late in the season but can still affect very late pod filling bean yields. Temps will be heating up the next several days...........then, cooling off in the north.
Latest COVID-19 numbers. ..........new positive cases have peaked.....deaths may also be peaking(at much less than 50% of the April peak).
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/55092/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
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Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
| NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Blistering heat West! Some of it spreads east!
Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7
We just passed the hottest time of year climatologically by 3+ weeks.
The big heat is out West. Impressive red anomalies..........spreading east.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Very quiet in the Cornbelt and mostly dry. 
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Pretty dry.... rains may pick up after this period.
Day 1 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
We won't be needing this map for a long time in the Midwest!
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | F |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/prec
Learn About Daily Precipitation
Learn About Weekly Precipitation
Current Dew Points
Dry air in the Midwest!!! And the Northeast.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY! For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.
April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.
May: 7: Drought increased a bit from KS westward.
May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.
May 21: A bit more drought in ND.
May 28: Not much change
June 4: Drought increases a tad in the N.Plains and Upper Midwest.
June 10: Drought worsening in the S.Plains could be part of the La Nina signal!!
June 17: Drought got worse again in the S.Plains and yellows/slight drought emerged in new locations............all of Indiana.
June 24: Drought help in some places(KS) but increased a bit in others(ND).
July 1: Drought shrunk in Ohio Valley(I got 5.5 inches of rain in sw INdiana!) but not much change elsewhere. Surprised it didn't shrink more in IN/IL where some places(Bowyer) got great rains recently.
July 8: The main change was an increase over w.IA and e.NE. At the end of July with the hot/dry weather coming up, the S.Plains drought should expand into the S.Midwest to the Eastern Cornbelt.
July 15: Drought increased again over IA/MO/IN/OH. In july, evaporation usually exceeds rainfall, so some of this is seasonal. Hot temps coming up will accelerate evaporation.
July 22: Some Recent rains in IN did not make the cutoff.
July 29: Main dry spots are W.Iowa and IN/OH. Upcoming rains prospects good for ECB.
August 6: Drought got much worse in Iowa.
August 13: Looks like rains on Monday made no difference to W.IA drought(only around 1 inch).
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Thursday: After a cool period, half the members want to build the heat ridge back in later in the week 2 period. DRY!
Saturday: Heat ridge trying to build back in the south.
Monday: How extensive will the heat ridge be? Fairly zonal flow(dry)northern half.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 03, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run at 360 hours:
Thursday: After a cool 10 days, heat ridge strengthens..........but where will it be? Dry on most extended solutions.
Saturday: Return of the heat ridge!
Monday: Wide spread/difference in the location of the heat ridge.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Thursday: Cool(transient) negative anomaly eastern half at week 1! Reverses to growing positive anomaly after 10 days and heating up Midwest.
Saturday: Hot West/Mild East in week one. Positive anomalies grow in week 2, along with increasing heat.
Monday: Weak positive anomalies.
2 weeks out below
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Saturday: Negative AO/NAO week 1, favors cool/dry, morphing towards 0 at the end of 2 weeks. PNA solidly positive............DRY for the Midwest!
Monday: AO/NAO close to 0. Positive PNA dropping towards 0. Nothing unusual with zonal type flow.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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A little rain possible in the Corn Belt for Friday night into the weekend, and chances for rain look to increase for the final few days of this month as well. Those rains will have to be notable to keep this month from being one of the 10 driest on record (in a 128-year data set)
Craig Solberg@CraigSolbergMy apologies...previous map shows Aug rain rankings IF AUGUST ENDED TODAY The map below shows rankings for the Aug 1-18 Will maintain my statement that rains have to really pick up to keep this month out of the 10 driest on record. Thanks to
for pointing out my error.
