KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, August 21, 2020
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 51.2; previous 51.3)
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 50.6; previous 49.6)
10:00 AM ET. July Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 5.2M; previous 4.72M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected +11.7%; previous +20.7%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.0)
Median Price (USD) (previous 295300)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +3.5%)
Monday, August 24, 2020
8:30 AM ET. July CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 4.11)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -3.49)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight following Thursday's rally to a new all-time high close. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,088.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 11,524.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,088.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,643.13.
The September S&P 500 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at 3393.52 would open the door into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3315.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 3393.52. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3315.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3205.01.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they continue to form a possible bear-flag below the January-June uptrend line crossing near 179-20. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 177-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-11. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 177-16. Second support is July's low crossing at 177-06.
September T-notes were higher overnight as they consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.210 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes this month's decline, July's low crossing at 138.235 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.210. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.130. Third resistance is the March high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 139.285. Second support is July's low crossing at 138.235.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range above the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 5th high crossing at $43.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $42.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.91. Third support is the July 30th low crossing at $39.00.
October heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $131.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $133.94. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.33. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $119.03.
October unleaded gas was lower overnight due to light profit taking due concerns over stagnant or falling demand. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $122.61. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.00.
October Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.291 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.598. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.428. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.291.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends a short covering bounce off Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near-term. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.21. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $92.11. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.
The September Euro was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of this month's gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at $117.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $119.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.37.
The September British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the August 4th low crossing at 1.2984 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3269. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453. First support is the August 4th low crossing at 1.2984. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2759.
The September Swiss Franc was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1108. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at 1.0829.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If September extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.33.
The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-week's low, July's high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0939 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0934. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930. Third support is July's low crossing at 0.0925.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower overnight due in part to strength in the U.S. Dollar. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1873.80 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off last-week's low, August's high crossing at $2078.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1873.80. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80.
September silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $23.580 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $29.915. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $23.580. Second support is the 38% retracement level of March-August-rally crossing at $22.973.
September copper was lower due to profit taking overnight signaling a possible end to the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.7690 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3.0295. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.7690. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.7035.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews this month's rally, the June 8th high crossing at $3.48 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 8th high crossing at $3.48 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.59 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.37. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 3/4.
December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 31st high crossing at $5.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.14 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 31st high crossing at $5.42. Second resistance is the July 24th high crossing at $5.48 3/4. First support is August's low crossing at $4.97. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.79 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the July 24th high crossing at $4.65 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 24th high crossing at $4.65 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $4.74 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.40. Second support is August's low crossing at $4.20 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.26 3/4 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.17 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.26 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $5.33 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.17. Second support is August's low crossing at $5.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was steady to fractionally lower overnight.The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $9.24 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $9.19 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.24 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.91 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.88.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $296.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes this month's rally, July's high crossing at $308.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $308.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2019-2020-decline crossing at $311.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $297.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $296.00.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 33.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.93.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $2.93 at $55.48.
October hogs gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it renewed the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off the July 31st low, the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $57.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $50.54 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $56.13. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $57.01. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $50.54. Second support is the July 31st low crossing at $47.87.
October cattle closed down $1.43 at $109.40.
October cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at $119.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $115.09. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $119.63. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.51.
October Feeder cattle closed down $0.78-cents at $146.03.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off last-week's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $140.92 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $151.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $150.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $151.44. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $144.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $140.92.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, August's high crossing at 12.73 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 10.97 would confirm that a short-term top.
September cocoa closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below below Tuesday's low crossing at 23.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 25.87 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renewed the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.