KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 3.7)
Employment Idx (previous 2.4)
New Orders Idx (previous -1.7)
Prices Received (previous 4.7)
8:30 AM ET. August Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +0.7%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +7.8%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
9:15 AM ET. August Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +3.0%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 70.6%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +2.1)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off September's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 27,275.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 28,186.56 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If the Dow renews this summer's rally, February's high crossing at 29,568.57 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 29,199.35. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 29,568.57. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 27,447.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 27,275.67.
The December NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,115.22. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. If December extends the decline off September's high, the July 24th low crossing at 10,297.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,673.65 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,673.65. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,465.25. First support is today's low crossing at 10,924.00. Second support is the July 24th low crossing at 10,297.00.
The December S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3306.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3431.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3431.88. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3568.80. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3325.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3306.07.
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December T-bonds closed closed up 11/32's at 176-19.
December T-bonds closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-27 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the June 5th low crossing at 171-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-27. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 181-17. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 173-16. Second support is the June 5th low crossing at 171-16.
December T-notes closed up 50-pts. At 139.190.
December T-notes closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the June 5th low crossing at 137.025 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 140.110 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 139.290. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.110. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 5th low crossing at 137.025.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this year's decline, the June 12th low crossing at $35.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $41.43 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $41.43. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $43.78. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $36.13. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.25.
October heating oil closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $115.38. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.66. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $106.01. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45.
October unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends this week's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the July 30th low crossing at 106.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.84 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.84. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 129.41. Third resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 130.29. First support is today's low crossing at 107.55. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at 106.14.
October Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, the August 12th low crossing at 2.228 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 2.605 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2.605. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 2.743. First support is the August 12th low crossing at 2.228. Second support is the July 31st low crossing at 1.941.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at 93.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at 93.92. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 94.72. First support is September's low crossing at 91.75. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.
The December Euro closed higher on Friday while extending the August-September trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 121.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at 117.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 120.38. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 121.47. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at 117.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.21.
The December British Pound closed slightly lower on Friday as it extended this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 1.2733. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3166 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3166. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3488. First support isthe 38% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.2497 is the next downside target.
The December Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1241 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0913 are needed confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.1138. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1241. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0913. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0859.
The December Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.08 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 77.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.08. Second support is August's low crossing at 74.38.
The December Japanese Yen closed unchanged on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 0.0961 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the July 20th low crossing at 0.0932 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 19th high crossing at 0.0953. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0961. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0936. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0932.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
October gold closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at $2078.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1922.10 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at $1865.00. First resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1882.10. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80.
December silver closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 25.985 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 30.190. Second resistance isthe 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 25.985. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.785.
December copper posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 293.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 323.02 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 306.05. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 323.02. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 293.79. Second support is August's low crossing at 279.60.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up $0.04 1/2-cents at $3.69 1/2.
December corn closed higher on Friday on supportive export, supply and demand data released by USDA this morning. Today's USDA’s WASDE report lowered the average corn yield from 181.8 bushels per acre in August down to 178.5 bushels per acre. That was in line with pre-report trade estimates of 178.3 bpa. The USDA also cut 500,000 acres from its harvested acreage estimate to 83.5 million acres. These numbers project the 2020 U.S. corn crop at 14.9 billion bushels of corn, down from their previous estimate of 15.278 billion bushels in August. New crop corn sales now stand at 71.8 million bushels for the week ending September 3, which was on the high end of trade estimates that ranged between 35.4 million and 78.7 million bushels. With the 2019/20 marketing year completed, the USDA reported a 14% year-over-year decline, to 1.704 billion bushels. Another 49.2 million bushels in outstanding sales were carried over into the 2020/21 marketing year. Corn export shipments from September 1-3 reached 9.7 million bushels, with China in No. 1 at (2.7 million bushels). The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.52 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.84 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.52 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.42.
December wheat closed down $0.05 3/4-cents at $5.42 1/2.
December wheat closed lower on Friday after the USDA reported global production could hit record levels this season thereby triggering a round of technical selling . The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-June-decline crossing at $5.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $5.68 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.30 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.02-cents at $4.72.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.63 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the June's high crossing at $4.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $4.90 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.63 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.54 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.03 1/4-cents at $5.32 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.33 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 1/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $5.49 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $5.19 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.20-cents at $9.97 1/2.
November soybeans closed sharply higher on Friday on news of two large export sales announcements and a bullish round of export sales data from USDA. The USDA’s WASDE report provided additional support as it confirmed lower yield and production estimates that analysts had been expecting. The USDA lowered its yield estimate by 1.4 bpa from their August estimate to 51.9 bpa. That was very close to the average pre-report estimates of 51.8 bpa. With total harvested acreage was unchanged as total US production is pegged at 4.313 billion bushels. The USDA left soybean crush and export estimates unchanged, with 2020/21 ending stocks falling 150 million bushels below their August tally to 460 million bushels. That was even lower than trade estimates, which averaged 465 million bushels. World ending stocks for 2020/21 moved slightly lower, meantime, from 3.504 billion bushels down to 3.438 billion bushels. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, the February 2017 high crossing at $10.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.41 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $10.00. Second resistance is the February-2017 high crossing at $10.06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.68 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.41 1/4.
December soybean meal closed up $7.30 to $324.80.
December soybean meal closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $330.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $307.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $325.10. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $330.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $314.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $307.80.
December soybean oil closed up 57-pts. at 33.77.
December soybean oil closed higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-week's. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 33.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.14.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $2.55 at $65.40.
October hogs gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off June's low. Profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 31st low, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $67.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $56.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $66.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $67.56. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $58.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $56.89.
October cattle closed up $0.65 at $105.75.
October cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the July 15th low crossing at $102.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.49. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.05. First support is the July 15th low crossing at $102.65. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $98.50.
October Feeder cattle closed up $1.05-cents at $140.65.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $142.73 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $132.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $142.73. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $150.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $137.25. Second support is July's low crossing at $132.38.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.53 would confirm that a short-term top. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-June-decline crossing at 13.58 is the next upside target.
December cocoa closed higher on Friday as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.34. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 27.14 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August' high, the July 24th low crossing at 11.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed unchanged on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.