KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, October 29, 2020
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +32.0%; previous -31.4%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +2.9%; previous -1.8%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous -1.6%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous -1.4%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous -28.1%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous -0.8%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous -33.2%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 778K; previous 787K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -55K)
Continuing Claims (previous 8373000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -1024K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1831.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2225.5K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 367.5K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. September Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 132.8)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +3.0%; previous +8.8%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +24.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (expected 3960B; previous 3926B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (expected +34B; previous +49B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, October 30, 2020
8:30 AM ET. September Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous -2.7%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +1.0%; previous +1.0%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.4%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.6%)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.5%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.7%)
9:45 AM ET. October ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 57.9; previous 62.4)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 81.2; previous 80.4)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 75.6)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 87.8)
3:00 PM ET. September Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -2.0%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 were higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's huge sell off due to rising COVID-19 cases set to trigger more restrictions.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 10,656.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,615.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance October's high crossing at 12,249.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,444.75. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 11,123.75. Second support is September's low crossing at 10,656.50.
The December S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, September's low crossing at 3210.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3418.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3532.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3568.80. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3263.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 3210.70.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 175-17 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off the October 15th high, June's low crossing at 171-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 175-17. Second resistance is the October 15th high crossing at 176-10. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 171-22. Second support is June's low crossing at 171-16.
December T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.061 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August-rally crossing at 137.286 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.061. Second resistance is the October 15th high crossing at 139.140. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 138.050. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August-rally crossing at 137.286.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
December crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below October's low crossing at $36.93 would confirm a downside breakout of the September-October trading range. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.52 would would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 18th high crossing at $42.02. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.33. First support is October's low crossing at $36.93. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.72.
December heating oil was lower overnight while extending the September-October trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below October's low crossing at $108.19 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.94 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the October 9th high crossing at $121.44. Second resistance is the August 25st high crossing at 132.46. First support is October's low crossing at 108.19. Second support is May's low crossing at $99.24.
December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's downside breakout of the September-October trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the June 12th low crossing at $99.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.90. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $120.41. First support is the overnight low crossing at $103.69. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $99.80.
December Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.194 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 3.370 is the next upside target.First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.362. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.370. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.194. Second support is October's low crossing at 2.922.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.36 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's lowcrossing at $91.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 15th high crossing at $93.93. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $92.46. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.
The December Euro was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 15th low crossing at $117.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $116.31. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $118.95 are needed to renew the rally off September's low. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $118.95. Second resistance is the September 10th high crossing at $119.42. First support is the October 15th low crossing at $117.02. Second support is September's low crossing at $116.31.
The December British Pound was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2990 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the August 19th high crossing at 1.3270 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3182. Second resistance is the August 19th high crossing at 1.3270. First support is the October 16th low crossing at 1.2856. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2736.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0984 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 1.1138 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1090. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1138. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0984. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, September's low crossing at $74.53 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at $76.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $76.46. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $76.97. First support is the overnight low crossing at $74.96. Second support is September's low crossing at $74.53.
The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 0.0963 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 0.0952 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0962. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0963. First support is the October 20th low crossing at 0.0946. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0943.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $1851.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the October 12th high crossing at $1939.40 would mark a potential upside breakout of this month's trading range. First resistance is the October 12th high crossing at $1939.40. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at $1983.80. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1869.10. Second support is September's low crossing at $1851.00.
December silver was lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 6th low crossing at $22.965 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $21.810. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.479 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.479. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $27.865. First support is the October 6th low crossing at $22.965. Second support is September's low crossing at $21.810.
December copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0351 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3.2180. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0351. Second support is October's low crossing at 2.8345.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.99 3/4 would confirm that a top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the July-2019 high crossing at $4.23 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $4.22 1/4. Second resistance is the July-2019 high crossing at $4.23 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.99 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.77 1/2.
December wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.08 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline crossing at $6.66 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.38 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline crossing at $6.66 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.08 1/2. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at $5.87.
December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extended the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.45 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.45 1/2. Second support is the October 14th low crossing at $5.23 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.43 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.66 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.66 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $5.87 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $5.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.43 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.56 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews this summer's rally, psychological resistance crossing at $11.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $10.94. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $11.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.56 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.09 1/2.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $368.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $392.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $368.60. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at $352.30.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 19th low crossing at 32.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 35.49 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 34.82. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 35.49. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 31.82. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 30.68.