KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, November 11, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 838.2)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +3.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 301.2)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3949.8)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +6.4%)
N/A Marianas: Veterans' Day
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher on Tuesday as it extended Monday's strong rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices remain possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 28,431.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 29,933.83. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 28,431.96. Second support is October's low crossing at 26,143.77.
The December NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Tuesday as investors continue to roll out of technology stocks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,489.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 10,656.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 12,408.75. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,465.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,489.12. Second support is November's low crossing at 10,942.25.
The December S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 3502.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends Monday's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3539.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 3502.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3393.97.
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December T-bonds closed down 5/32's at 170-11.
December T-bonds lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 169-17 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 173-10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 173-10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-28. First support is Monday's low crossing at 169-29. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 169-17.
December T-notes closed down 15-pts. at 137.170.
December T-notes closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, June's low crossing at 137.025 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.178 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 138.113. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.178. First support is Monday's low crossing at 137.130. Second support is June's low crossing at 137.025.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
December crude oil closed higher on Tuesday gaining support due to prospects for a COVID-19 vaccine that are easing concerns that rising cases of the virus will lead to a further slowdown in energy demand.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $41.90 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $37.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at $41.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.33. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $37.06. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at $34.87.
December heating oil closed higher on Tuesday and above October's high crossing at $121.44. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the August 25th high crossing at $132.46 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $113.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $125.41. Second resistance is the August 25th high crossing at $132.46. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $113.59. Second support is November;s low crossing at $102.52.
December unleaded gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, August's high crossing at $122.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $109.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at $120.57. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $122.53. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $107.57. Second support is November's low crossing at $97.02.
December Henry natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 2.734 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.179 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.099. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.179. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 2.825. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 2.734.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.39 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this month's decline, September's low crossing at 91.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.39. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 94.33. First support is Monday's low crossing at 92.12. Second support is September's low crossing at 91.75.
The December Euro closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at 117.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 10th high crossing at 119.42. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 120.38. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 117.58. Second support is November's low crossing at 116.13.
The December British Pound was higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, September's high crossing at 1.3488 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2986 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3282. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3488. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2986. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.2855.
The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday as it extends Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 1.0874 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1.1144 would mark a potential upside breakout of the August-November trading range.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.1144. Second resistance is the September-2019 high crossing at 1.1319. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0874. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.0781.
The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, the October-2018 high crossing at 79.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.36. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at 75.77. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.77. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.70.
The December Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 0.0947 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews this year's rally, resistance crossing at 0.0978 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0970. Second resistance is resistance crossing at 0.0978. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.0947. Second support is September's low crossing at 0.0943.
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December gold posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off Monday's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $1771.40 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off November's low, the September 16th high crossing at $1983.8 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1966.10. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at $1983.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1848.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $1771.40.
December silver posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below October's low crossing at 22.965 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the September 15th high crossing at 27.865 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 26.135. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at 27.865. First support is October's low crossing at 22.965. Second support is September's low crossing at 21.810.
December copper closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 323.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.46 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 320.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 323.02. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.46. Second support is October's low crossing at 283.45.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up $0.14 1/2-cents at $4.22.
December corn closed sharply higher on Tuesday following today's bullish monthly supply-demand report. The USDA lowered this year's corn production by 215 million bushels to 14.507 billion bushels. The trade was expecting a smaller reduction in this year's yield estimate, with an average trade guess of 14.659 billion bushels. Per-acre yields were lowered from 178.4 bushels per acre in October down to 175.8 bpa. The USDA raised export projections by 325 million bushels this marketing year to 2.650 billion bushels. Feed and residual use estimates were lowered by 75 million bushels. the USDA 2020/21 ending stocks estimate declined by a whopping 465 million bushels to 1.7 billion, reaching the lowest levels since 2013/14. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance marked by the June-2019 high crossing at $4.64 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $4.01 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $4.27 1/2. Second resistance is the June-2019 high crossing at $4.64 1/4 is the next upside target. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $3.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.86.
December wheat closed up $0.10 1/4-cents at $6.07 3/4.
December wheat closed higher on Tuesday. Today's USDA monthly supply-demand report left wheat export estimates unchanged but an increase domestic use thereby lowering projected 2020/21 ending stocks down by 6 million bushels to 877 million. Analysts were expecting a smaller reduction, with an average trade guess of 881 million bushels. The USDA left the season-average farm price steady, at $4.70 per bushel. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.13 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.83 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $6.38 1/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.66 1/4. First support is November's low crossing at $5.91. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.83 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.09 1/2-cent at $5.62.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off last-week's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.19 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $5.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.19 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.06 3/4-cents at $5.61 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at crossing at $5.71 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $5.87 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $6.00 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.47. Second support is September's low crossing at $5.22 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.36-cents at $11.46 1/2.
November soybeans closed sharply higher on Tuesday following today's bullish monthly supply-demand report. The USDA's production forecast for soybeans fell by 98 million bushels to 4.17 billion bushels. Pre-report estimates came in at 4.251 billion bushels. Per-acre yield estimates dropped by more than 1 bpa from October, falling to 50.7 bpa. Ending stocks also fell more than expected, dropping to just 190 million bushels after the agency cut another 100 million bushels from its October estimates. If realized, that will send domestic stocks to the lowest levels in seven years. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $11.71 3/4 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $11.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $11.71 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.82 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.75.
December soybean meal closed up $11.10 to $395.20.
December soybean meal closed sharply higher on Tuesday following a bullish monthly supply-demand report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $379.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $401.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $379.70. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at $352.30.
December soybean oil closed up 58-pts. at 36.06.
December soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the December-2019 high crossing at 36.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 36.15. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 36.41. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.98.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed down $0.38 at $65.23.
December hogs closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $64.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at $72.80. Second resistance is the July-2019 high crossing at $73.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $64.48. Second support is the September 16th low crossing at $61.25.
December cattle closed down $0.05 at $111.78
December cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the September 30th high crossing at $115.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $112.30. Second resistance is the September 30th high crossing at $115.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.30. Second support is October's low crossing at $102.53.
January Feeder cattle closed down $0.25-cents at $140.47.
January Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $144.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $131.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at $144.55. Second resistance is the September 29th high crossing at $144.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.86. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $131.59.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October 12th high crossing at 11.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 10.18 is the next downside target.
December cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.81 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at 21.15 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 13.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 15.55 is the next upside target.
December cotton posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Tuesday following a neutral supply-demand report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.65 confirms that a short-term top has been posted and opens the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at 73.00 is the next upside target.