I've been including the thread below in every weather post all year and here
we are on the day when our thoughts focus on giving thanks for all the wonderful things that we have. There are 364 other days in the year to remember this too!!!
Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Some chilly weather coming up has inspired the natural gas bulls to be aggressive buyers at times this week.
Models very uncertain about the week 2/early December pattern. Temperature are uncertain................... as models try to get a handle on a potential pattern change from a mild +AO/NAO to chilly/COLD -AO/-NAO! See explanations/graphs below.
NEW: Detailed analysis. Latest COVID-19 numbers. .............COVID is killing people at a 5 times lower rate per positive cases, compared to the Spring peak. That's the good news. The bad news is that daily positives are 4 times higher than the Spring peak and increasing everywhere with hospitals near capacity in many places.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61206/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Most maps below will automatically update each day(not the snow map).
Total snowfall next week. Snow chances start Monday.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
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Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
| NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Chilling down to below average.
Lows days 3-7 below:
Freeze line plunging into the Deep South!
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml
Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7
Above average N.Plains. Turning sharply cold elsewhere.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features days 0-1-2 then days 3-7:
Canadian high pressure and gradually colder weather with reinforcing cold fronts the next few days. First major snowstorm next week for some places in the Great Lakes/E.Ohio Valley to Northeast region.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/
Days 0-1-2 below:
Days 3-7 below:
Total snowfall next week. From the GFS Ensemble Mean 12z Thankgiving run. Snow chances start Monday.
Winter Weather
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Rains shift east and south. Snow in the colder air next week.
Day 1 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | F |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loops
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY! For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.
April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.
May: 7: Drought increased a bit from KS westward.
May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.
May 21: A bit more drought in ND.
May 28: Not much change
June 4: Drought increases a tad in the N.Plains and Upper Midwest.
June 10: Drought worsening in the S.Plains could be part of the La Nina signal!!
June 17: Drought got worse again in the S.Plains and yellows/slight drought emerged in new locations............all of Indiana.
June 24: Drought help in some places(KS) but increased a bit in others(ND).
July 1: Drought shrunk in Ohio Valley(I got 5.5 inches of rain in sw INdiana!) but not much change elsewhere. Surprised it didn't shrink more in IN/IL where some places(Bowyer) got great rains recently.
July 8: The main change was an increase over w.IA and e.NE. At the end of July with the hot/dry weather coming up, the S.Plains drought should expand into the S.Midwest to the Eastern Cornbelt.
July 15: Drought increased again over IA/MO/IN/OH. In july, evaporation usually exceeds rainfall, so some of this is seasonal. Hot temps coming up will accelerate evaporation.
July 22: Some Recent rains in IN did not make the cutoff.
July 29: Main dry spots are W.Iowa and IN/OH. Upcoming rains prospects good for ECB.
August 6: Drought got much worse in Iowa.
August 13: Looks like rains on Monday made no difference to W.IA drought(only around 1 inch).
August 20: IA is very dry.........into N.IL now.
August 27: Drought got worse in IA!!
September 3: Drought worse in IA and IL, N.IN!
September 10: We should probably be noting the real drought out West. The Rockies back to OR is the most severe.
October 1: La Nina driven severe drought out West, some of which has pushed into the Plains and even parts of the Midwest in recent months.
Oct. 7: Drought intensifies..............which is not unusual since this is the driest time of year seasonally.
November 5: Drought improves in the S.Plains!
November 12: Not much change. Hard to increase drought at this time of year with the cooler temperatures.
November 19: Drought worsens a bit out West!
November 26: Drought worsens more out West!
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
November 24: The mean below looks pretty zonal and benign but thats because it averages out alot of high amplitude solutions that cancel out the extremes with the majority NOT looking like the average/mean below. That means high uncertainty. Several individual solutions are very cold in the Midwest/East. Others are pretty mild. With the AO and NAO dropping in week 2, I am in the colder camp for now. The European Ensemble strongly favors this too.
November 25/26: Same as previous discussion. Massive disparities on location of upper level low in Canada, location of all the large scale features and position of the jet stream. The ensemble average does show a modest ridge/west-trough/east couplet which would mean chilly air east but some solutions are VERY amplified with the average of all solutions dampening that out.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 10, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 12z run at 360 hours:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f384.gif
November 26: Position of upper level low in Canada varies a great deal. It's the location of this feature that will determine how deeply the REAL cold is able to penetrate in the East. Some solutions have this feature in N.Canada and cut off the major cold far to the north..............and are very mild with zonal flow. Others are VERY cold with a deep upper level low close to the US border. A dropping AO/NAO favors the colder solutions but the AO/NAO are also products of the same models and can be wrong too.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
November 26: Extreme positive anomaly at 168 hours with negative anomaly in the Southeast US is textbook optimal to drive air in S.Canada to the Gulf Coast. ++PNA pattern is impressive. But the air in S.Canada is near record warm for them, so the cold in the Southeast is cold by RELATIVE standards to what is average there.......but its still very significant cold and uses up alot of NG for the many high population centers. The pattern is trying to shift after this with tremendous uncertainty. A potential Greenland block type scenario could unfold with the positive anomaly from the Hudson Bay to just south of Greenland. This would be cold along the entire East Coast, with REAL cold temps by all standards. The +PNA pattern relaxes/weakens in week 2.
2 weeks out below
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
November 26: Some pretty extreme values recently. +++AO and ++NAO. This has been a factor in the mild weather recently. Both plunge to -AO/-NAO at the end of 2 weeks. Which is usually a COLD pattern and potentially very cold if it amplifies. Impressive ++PNA drops to +PNA. This is a HUGE factor with the upcoming cold being able to penetrate deeply south.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
 | |
The week 3 and week 4 CFS model looks very mild!
However, if the -AO/-NAO amplifies, that frigid air in Eastern Canada will be flushed south into the Northeast and along the East Coast.
