KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, December 21, 2020
8:30 AM ET. November CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.83)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.75)
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
11:00 AM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
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The Dow closed lower on Friday due to profit taking after closing at record highs Thursday as Wall Street waits for another round of economic relief from the government and on a government spending bill to avert a shutdown. Increased volatility in today's trade may have been due to the “quadruple witching day”. This occurs when stock-index futures, stock-index options, stock options, and single-stock futures expire simultaneously. The adding of Tesla Inc. into the S&P 500 at the end of today's trading and re-balancing of portfolios may have also added to some of today's volatility. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29,958.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 30,434.59. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29,958.92. Second support is the November 12th low crossing at 28,902.13.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,402.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 12,789.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,402.04. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,993.59.
The March S&P 500 closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3653.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3720.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3653.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3535.01.
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March T-bonds closed down 13/32's at 172-08.
March T-bonds closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off the November 20th high, November's low crossing at 170-22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-03 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 177-06. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-03. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 177-06. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 171-04. Second support is November's low crossing at 170-22.
March T-notes closed down 35-pts. at 137.245.
March T-notes closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off the December 4th low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 137.195 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 138.070 would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 138.300. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 138.070. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is the December 4th low crossing at 137.075. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265.
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February crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $46.07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $49.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $46.07. Second support is December's low crossing at $43.92.
February heating oil closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $141.02 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $151.88. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $145.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $141.02.
February unleaded gas closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $128.46 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $139.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.50.
February Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.686 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.179 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.686. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 2.797. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.393. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.179.
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The March Dollar posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 88.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.02. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 89.64. Second support is monthly support crossing at 88.15.
The March Euro posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 123.04. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 121.86. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.01.
The March British Pound closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3198 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of November's low crossing at 1.2876. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.3643. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3397. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3209.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the September-2019 high crossing at 1.1408 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1208 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.1371. Second resistance is the September-2019 high crossing at 1.1408. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1309. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1208.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the October-2018 high crossing at 79.09 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 78.87. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at 79.09. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.78.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday and below the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0971. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0963 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 0.0974. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0963. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0959.
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February gold posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $1973.30 is the next upside target. If February renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $1711.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the November 16th high crossing at $1904.30. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1820.00. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.
March silver closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 26.270 would open the door for a possible test of the September 15th high crossing at 28.015. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 23.630 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 26.350. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at 28.015. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 23.630. Second support is November's low crossing at 21.960.
March copper closed higher on Friday as it posted a new high close for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 379.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 348.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 364.45. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 379.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 348.17. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 326.75.
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March Corn closed up $0.05-cents at $4.37 1/2.
March corn closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 2nd low crossing at $4.14 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $4.39 1/2. Second resistance is the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First support is the December 2nd low crossing at $4.14 1/2. Second support is the October 29th low crossing at $3.96.
March wheat closed down a $0.00 1/2-cents at $6.08.
March wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Monday's low, November's high crossing at $6.28 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.94 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $6.22 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $6.28 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at $5.71. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.55.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.00 3/4-cents at $5.69 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes last-week's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $6.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.57 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at crossing at $5.87 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $6.12. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.57 1/4. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $5.30 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.01 1/2-cents at $5.68 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March renews last-week's rally, November's high crossing at $5.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.58 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at crossing at $5.74. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $5.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.58 3/4. Second support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
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January soybeans closed up $0.16-cents at $12.17 1/4.
January soybeans closed higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. This week's breakout above monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2 opens the door for a possible run at the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $12.89 1/2 later this winter. Closes below December's low crossing at $11.42 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.19. First resistance is today's high crossing at $12.24 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $12.89 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at $11.42 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.25 1/4.
March soybean meal closed up $6.40 to $403.80.
March soybean meal closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $432.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $376.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $408.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $432.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $387.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $376.40.
March soybean oil closed up 17-pts. at 39.67.
March soybean oil closed higher on Friday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, monthly resistance crossing at 41.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 39.86. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 41.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 35.92.
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February hogs closed up $0.40 at $65.90.
February hogs closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $66.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes this month's decline, November's low crossing at $62.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.37. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $66.99. First support is November's low crossing at $62.75. Second support is September's crossing at $61.55.
February cattle closed up $0.35 at $114.80
February cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, the November 24th high crossing at $114.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If First resistance is the November 24th high crossing at $114.70. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $115.45. First support is the December 8th low crossing at $110.55. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $109.00.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.38 at $142.23.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $145.30 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $137.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $142.85. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $137.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.61.
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March coffee closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 13.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.96 would open the door for a larger-degree decline. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.39 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 15.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, the October 30th low crossing at 13.94 is the next downside target.
March cotton posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 79.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.