I have concerns about small Mom and Pop inability to compete with big box stores. This is where a lot of jobs have disappeared

If large numbers of workers were employed then this would float all boats IMHO. Sadly unemployment is a continuing concern

It seems very obvious that winners and losers have been decided, with a very small % of those at the top making decisions for the majority of deplorables

IMHO we are headed into a double dip recession, with the vaccine our only hope. That will likely take approx.12 months to have enough people vaccinated to open up the economy. Hopefully those who resist vaccination will slowly change their thoughts

Until then your suck factor will remain as is for the past number of weeks. This suck factor IMHO is the most important of all your information

Just a few comments as I see things. I read your weekly post with great interest

Great work Tim and please continue

Thanks for the zillionth time Tim,

This is clearly tied to COVID. Don't you agree?

There is no way that we can substantially rebound until we turn things around with COVID.

But I'm very confident that this will happen(so is the stock market). 

Several things will suddenly turn in our favor in around March/April. One of the biggest will be the seasonal affect, previously known as "the flu season" will have passed. A virus can survive twice as long after 1 hour when the humidity drops 50%.............this is the science I gleaned from looking at all the studies. This is a big part of the seasonal affect. 

In addition, the number of people vaccinated will be increasing............along with those already infected and recovered. Sadly, around 1% of the population will have died but many of these were the most vulnerable. With the other 99%, the most vulnerable will be vaccinated by then and the others will be less likely to get deathly sick.

At that point, the improvement will go straight up.

A feature with the distribution of  these vaccinations bothers me though.

It's great that we want to maximize protection with 2 shots and this would be a wonderful idea...........if it didn't also mean that it will take twice as long for most people to get vaccinated. 

The limiting factor for most people in their wait to get vaccinated will be the amount of time that it takes to give people in front of them 2 shots, instead of 1 shot which will also be dependent on supplies. It will basically use up twice as much of the vaccinations and take twice as long to do 2 shots as it does 1 shot. 

Somebody who could be vaccinated in 3 months, for instance, if they were giving out just 1 shot/person..........will have to wait 6 months. Somebody who would get the 1 shot in 4 months, will have to wait 8 months if getting 2 shots.  If we could get everybody mostly protected with 1 shot in 6 months...........it will take an entire year with 2 shots. 

I understand their reasoning because they are looking at the long run, big picture to maximize the effectiveness of the shots in the individuals that get them but its wrong in a pandemic.

Analogy: It would be like having a fuel system problem with your car, for instance. If the mechanic told you that he was booked for months out and he could do most of  the problem in 3 months but it "might not" entirely fix the problem with no warranty on the results but would, for sure make it MUCH better and you might need to come back several months later if there were any signs of the issue coming back.

Or you could wait an extra 3 months, (double the time at 6 months) and have the job done right with a warranty on the results. 

Most people would opt to wait an extra 3 months and have it done right.

But what if he told you that that this fuel system problem had a good chance of causing your car to explode and burst into flames at speeds of greater than 50mph? Getting it mostly fixed in 3 months, would eliminate most of that risk.

A car like that would be a "death machine", until it got fixed.  The choice would be a no brainer. Get the car in ASAP so you are no longer driving around  in the death machine.  

Doing 2 shots before most people can get one is like having a couple hundred million people walking around in potential "human" death machines for twice as long as they need to, so that when they get them "fixed" it will be the permanent fix. 

That last analogy was good enough to create a thread of its own and send it out on Twitter and Facebook!!

We have to assume Coivid is a significant factor.   Like you,  I think worst case for contraction ends somewhere around spring, assuming no significant eco-policy changes.