Fantastic February to you!
Coldest blast in a couple of years on the way! numerous snow/ice events along the ohio river the next 10 days!
edit: Coldest in decades for TX with snow/ice!
moderation expected late february is helping drive ng prices(lower)....containing the bulls....today at least.
Reasons to continue to keep being thankful here in 2021!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
NEW: COVID peaked a month ago!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/63690/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Most maps below will automatically update each day(not the snow map).
the maps below do not show the areas of ice that WILL fall, just south of the heavier snow!
Total Snow for the next 1 week and 2 weeks from the 12z Monday GFS Ensemble model.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
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Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
| NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Maps below are updated daily but comments are from Feb 8th:
Lows days 3-7 below:
NorthCentral plunges into the DEEEEEEEP freeze!!! MUCH below ZERO!
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml
Highs for days 3-7:
Bone chilling North/Central.......staying well below freezing even during the day!!
Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7
Waaaay below average NorthCentral!
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features days 0-1-2 then days 3-7:
active winter weather the next several days midwest to east coast.
Arctic high pressure/cold plunges south all week.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/
Days 0-1-2 below:
Days 3-7 below:
Total Snow for the next 1 week and 2 weeks from the 12z Monday GFS Ensemble model.
the maps below do not show the areas of ice that WILL fall, just south of the heavier snow!
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Northern part of this will be snow and ice!
Day 1 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Current Dew Points
Dry air in place. Gulf of Mexico closed for water vapor transport business to the north.
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
national/regional radar
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2................. Canadian ensembles:
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Feb 23, 2021 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 12z run at 336 hours:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f336.gif
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
2 weeks out below
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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The week 3 and week 4 CFS model from the previous day
ECMWF 12z model update & its ensemble distribution still has Oklahoma City forecast to tie its all-time record cold temperature of -17°F set back on February 12, 1899. Model forecast dependent upon lack of cloud cover, calm winds, and fresh snow cover.
evansville in weather +more
10 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 8, 2021, 6 p.m.
scroll down at the link below for the latest
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How Extreme is this? Never has this 4 state area been targeted in winter storm warnings to this extent, not even close
Forecast high temps for Valentine's Day (departure from normal shaded) broke my color bar. Parts of the Central US more than 40-degrees F colder than average for Feb 14.
Here is the area where I believe the upcoming 5 days will be the most extreme winter weather wise of anyone that has lived in these areas all their life. Total snow and ice, magnitude of cold. economic and humanitarian hardship all considered
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You just don't see temperatures forecast this cold in this part of the world. The Deep South is embracing for extreme cold weather related major power disruptions.
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Just can't seem to... Let It Go... Temperatures will remain Frozen for some time. Eventually once we break above freezing, it will feel like For the First Time in Forever. But until then, please take care to stay warm! The cold actually does bother us anyway...
Incredible Icon, though likely too cold, is a wonder to look at. Low temps Mon AM, High Mon Pm Low Tue am
NWS Lake Charles@NWSLakeCharles
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A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for the area tonight through Monday. Ice accumulations of 0.1 to 0.5 inches are possible by late Monday. Snow amounts up to 4 inches are also possible, mainly across central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas. PREPARE NOW for this event!
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#BidenClimatePlanUpdate When the wind slows later today, electricity demand in Texas may exceed generation. Possibly getting rid of coal plants wasn't such a good idea.
