@kannbwx

U.S. export inspections last week were as expected. 

22% of the #soybeans went to #China, as did 2 cargoes each of #corn and #sorghum and 1 for #wheat. 

Corn inspections are still high for the time of year but those #'s will need to push even higher in the coming weeks.

@kannbwx

With 14 of 19 February trading days complete, U.S. 2021 insurance guarantees are unlikely to change drastically from here barring an unexpected market shocker next week. #Corn & #wheat looking at 7-year highs, #soybeans 8-year. All of these prices have trended upward this month.

kannbwx

 · Feb 21, 2020

USDA's Grains & Oilseeds outlook: U.S. #soybeans 2020/21 Production 4.2 bln bu Crush 2.13 bbu Exports 2.05 bbu

 Ending stocks 320 mln bu Avg farm price $8.80/bu Stocks would be a 4yr low. 

Exports assume recovery in U.S. market share to #China.

#AgOutlook

@kannbwx

Despite 7 million more acres of #soybeans planted and a slight drop in use, U.S. soy stocks-to-use in 2021-22 are projected at 3.2%, the third tightest in history. 

Actual stocks are seen at 145 mln bu. Modeled yield at 50.8 bu/acre is slightly above the 50.6 from the baseline #'s

Traffic of #soybeans has picked up noticeably over the last week, especially cargoes out of Santos heading to #China. However, the rain delays are apparent in the north because there have been fewer vessels loading and departing over the last few days.

Here's a recent time series for comparison: Feb 12 Feb 5 Jan 15 Dec 7

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Here's some comparisons with a year ago: Feb. 26, 2020 Jan. 30, 2020

Are you buying into my tipping point food theory yet?  

If they start cutting  atmospheric fertilizer,  CO2 emissions, that will be a problem.

export sales were horrible:

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm

@kannbwx

Disappointing U.S. export sales last week. #Corn and #wheat bookings were a marketing year low, and #soybeans appear to be the 2nd lowest of MY.

 #China was very inactive this week, though they did book a cargo of new-crop beans. #Sorghum sales net negative.

@kannbwx

U.S. gasoline output was off sharply last week as was gasoline demand. Finished motor gasoline supplied to the U.S. market fell 14% on the week to the lowest level since May 17, 2020, the height of the pandemic lockdown.

@kannbwx

·

HUGE plunge in U.S. #ethanol output last week due to the extreme cold that caused natural gas shortages, drop in gas production, & other historic interruptions. Output fell 28% on the week to 658KB/D. Only 5 weeks during the pandemic (April 10 - May 8, 2020) had lower output.