KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, January 3, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 379.2)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -4.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 234.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1240.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.2%)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.4%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.1%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)
9:45 AM ET. December ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 58.1)
10:00 AM ET. November Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +1.4%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. December Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. December ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (previous 58.2)
Prices Idx (previous 65.5)
Employment Idx (previous 59.7)
Inventories (previous 47.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 64.0)
Production Idx (previous 63.9)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast
4:00 PM ET. December Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Auto Sales Annualized (previous 17.48M)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -6.0M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.1M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.8M)
Refinery Runs
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Tuesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6473.02 ending the decline off December's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If the March NASDAQ 100 resumes this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6345.27 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 6545.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6345.27. Second support is December's low crossing at 6250.00.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday while extending the late-December trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2669.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 2698.20. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2669.56. Second support is the the reaction low crossing at 2652.70.
The Dow closed higher on Tuesday while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,572.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is December's high crossing at 24,876.07. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,572.67. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 24,101.48.
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March T-bonds closed down 1-04/32's at 151-28.
March T-bonds closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 149-07 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 154-18 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 154-18. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 154-21. First support is December's low crossing at 150-18. Second support is October's low crossing at 149-07.
March T-notes closed down 105/32's at 123-230.
March T-notes closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 122.205 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.018 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.018. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.121. First support is December's low crossing at 123.125. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.205.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extended this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 60.74. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 58.94. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.07.
February heating oil closed slightly lower on Tuesday after testing the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 199.77. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.45.
February unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 177.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 181.53. Second resistance is the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174.98. Second support is December's low crossing at 166.19.
February Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.007 as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 3.210 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.771 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.097. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.210. First support is December's low crossing at 2.562. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.522.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last week's, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 91.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 93.83. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 94.76. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 91.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 90.68.
The March Euro closed higher on Tuesday as it extended last Friday's breakout above the November-December trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, September's high crossing at 122.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 121.35. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 122.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.19.
The March British Pound closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3695 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3462 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3598. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3695. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3462. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3353.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 1.0412 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0194 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.0352. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 1.0412. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0194. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.0103.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, October's high crossing at 80.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.08. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 80.42. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.47. Second support is December's low crossing at 77.52.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the December 21st low, December's high crossing at 0.8981 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.8987 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.9073. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is December's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low due to weakness in the US Dollar. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher price are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1334.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1271.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1318.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1334.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1284.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1271.10.
March silver closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 17.485 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.267 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.270. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 17.485. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.572. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.267.
March copper closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-13 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 323.87. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.22.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up 2 1/2-cents at 3.53 1/4.
March corn closed higher on Tuesday due to weakness in the US Dollar. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.55. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat closed up 7 1/4-cents at 4.34 1/4.
March wheat closed higher on Tuesday as below normal temps across the plain states have raised concerns over crop conditions and the potential for winter kill. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.34 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.34 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.60 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 7 1/2-cents at 4.34 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat gapped up and closed above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.33 confirming that a short-term low has been posted on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 4.41 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.17 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 4.41. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up 3 1/4-cents at 6.18.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.28 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.28 3/4. Second resistance is December's high resistance crossing at 6.34. First support is December's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed up 3 3/4-cents at 9.65 1/2.
March soybeans closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.81 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the late-August low crossing at 9.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.81 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.92. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 9.54 3/4. Second support is the late-August low crossing at 9.50.
March soybean meal closed up $1.40 at 318.20.
March soybean meal closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 315.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 326.60 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 326.60. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 315.70. Second support is November's low crossing at 315.00.
March soybean oil closed up 31 pts. At 33.57.
March soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends the rebound off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.19 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 32.44 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 33.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.19. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 32.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 32.44.
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April hogs closed down $0.80 at $74.85.
April hogs closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 78.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 76.32. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 78.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.70. Second support is December's low crossing at 70.97.
February cattle closed up $1.80 at 123.35.
February cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 118.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.74. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is December's low crossing at 117.58. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06.
March Feeder cattle closed up $4.20 at $146.88.
March Feeder cattle gapped up and closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.50 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends today's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 149.21 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 149.21. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 142.21. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 137.19.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed sharply higher on Tuesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.65 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.02 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 17.91 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 15.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton posted a key reversal down due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.29 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 80.67 is the next upside target.