Corn down big
13 responses | 0 likes
Started by wglassfo - May 19, 2021, 11:44 a.m.

My map shows a lot of green from chicago east to the eastern coast

Some are missing the rain, some are getting rain they don't want and many are getting enough for about 10 days

Wouldn't you know it, our farm is getting zero rain hasn't had a decent rain more than 1/10 all spring. One week we accumulated 1/2" in a week

We are so dry we may have a failure which has never happened here in my farming days

This may be our turn for a failure although one yr it did not rain until June 28

So far growing a crop is a big concern "here" although a small corn plant doesn't need the moisture we need in June/July

The dust was so bad you could not see the planter behind you. Dust got in every crack so small you would not believe it. We had problems with gears and other parts turning as the dust clogged up the turning parts. Really fine dust, never seen before. Air compressor blowing out dust was required, which was time consuming

Comments
By metmike - May 19, 2021, 4:51 p.m.
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thanks Wayne,

the Great Lakes have been very dry for quite some time.

I think that this map depicts it best:

Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

Not a great deal of rain in the forecast for this week for you but hopefully, things will turn wetter next week and beyond.

Here's your comprehensive weather forecast.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69635/

By WxFollower - May 20, 2021, 2:12 p.m.
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I have a general question about corn. In a nutshell, why is it double of what it was one year ago? It averaged $3.19/bushel in May of 2020 and is now about double that.

I see that wheat has risen from $5 to $7 in the same timeframe, not nearly as much of a rise though still a pretty good rise. 

 Thanks in advance.

By cutworm - May 20, 2021, 3:37 p.m.
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These are just some guesses for corn:

US$ index down from about 100 To 90ish

3 typhoons that hit the Chinese growing areas in 2020

Insatiable demand from China 

China rebuilding their hog herd after AFS

The late S American corn crop being cut due to drought problems


 

By WxFollower - May 20, 2021, 4:18 p.m.
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Thanks, cutworm.

 So, the much higher corn price vs one year ago doesn’t have anything to do with, say, a much smaller US corn crop? TIA

By metmike - May 20, 2021, 4:24 p.m.
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Thanks Larry,

The US didn't have a much smaller corn crop in 2020.

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornprod.php

Corn: Production by Year, US

By metmike - May 20, 2021, 4:32 p.m.
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This explains what I thought happened from a post back in January and mentioned several other times, including for soybeans at the link below it.

3 typhoons in a short period of time when the crops were vulnerable but I now believe there is much more to it and that was just part of it.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/64916/#64948


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66925/#67090

By metmike - May 20, 2021, 4:35 p.m.
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This has been almost entirely driven by Chinese buying/demand. Fixed link below.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69529/#69699


Image

By metmike - May 20, 2021, 4:48 p.m.
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Besides China needing to replace stocks from the lost production last year, they could be trying to hoard these food products because of what they see as massive exposure ahead.........to protect their country. Sort of like speculating, buying gold only that you can't eat gold.

It's insurance in the future that they will be able to feed their people if they build up there food stocks. Especially in a potentially inflationary environment.....and global stocks so low(mainly from their buying).

There could be more to it that we don't know too.

China steps up focus on food security in major policy document

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-steps-up-focus-food-security-major-policy-document-2021-02-22/

By metmike - May 20, 2021, 4:54 p.m.
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China's rare earth monopoly:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68131/#68250

Despite Pledges to Cut Emissions, China Goes on a Coal Spree

          https://e360.yale.edu/features/despite-pledges-to-cut-emissions-china-goes-on-a-coal-spree

China's emissions now exceed all the developed world's combined

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-emissions-now-exceed-all-the-developed-world-s-combined-1.1599997

China: “renewable energy … intermittent and unstable, we must rely on a stable power source”

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/05/03/china-renewable-energy-intermittent-and-unstable-we-must-rely-on-a-stable-power-source/

By metmike - May 20, 2021, 5:15 p.m.
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I'm 99% confident that China will be eating our lunch by the middle of this decade and it will only get worse with time.

This is based entirely on things like the indisputable facts above.

They can produce everything much cheaper. They have a favorable environment for growth/business. 

Their energy policies are light years superior............the life blood over every economy.

They don't have  crushing debt.

They are positioning themselves for future prosperity. 

The US is positioning by  punishing its businesses and people(the carbon penalties and  tax is coming with absolute certainty) for a fake climate crisis to get us signed up with the UN's global socialism plan.........otherwise known as the CLimate Accord.

China doesn't need socialism...............it already has communism and THEY control China.

Last thing they would ever want is a UN telling them what to do with their country.


By WxFollower - May 20, 2021, 7:37 p.m.
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Thanks, mike.

By metmike - May 20, 2021, 9:35 p.m.
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YW Larry!

By mcfarmer - May 20, 2021, 10:32 p.m.
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I think you are right. I feel the US and China may meet in the middle someplace.

Our version of capitalism has shown its weaknesses, our income disparity isn’t sustainable at the current level. 

However our system does promote innovation. 

China has very real problems coming to terms with their place in the world. Their thinking on human rights is holding them back from becoming a trusted partner with the most developed nations.