This might be the worst rated HRS ever. For sure in my memory.
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2621.txt
corn down 3%, beans down 2%............I thought it might be slightly worse.
Spring wheat down 10% to just 27% G/E and 37% P/VP. Wow!
This is why!
Soil moisture anomalies are massive in the northern 1/2 of the belt:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70329/#70341
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
This is where the HWS crop is grown
Seasonally, from now until the end of the year, the wheat market often displays price strength(with the HRW crop harvest pressure starting to let up in July). Only 17% harvested this year though, behind the average of 26%.
The HRW crop actually has a record high yield for biggest producer, Kansas by a wide margin.
Previous wheat thread..........record yields in KS.
Wheat
20 responses |
Started by metmike - May 24, 2021, 12:04 p.m.
Not much rain in the forecast for the HRS the next 2 weeks either.
Maybe the crop rating and bullish forecast will just be too much and the market will make new highs now.
Latest weather
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71166/#71380
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70329/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71726/#71728
Just 20% of U.S. spring #wheat is rated as good or excellent. There are only 8 weeks (all in 1988) since records began in 1986 where the good/exc portion was smaller. 39% poor/very poor is the 15th worse on record.
Latest weather:
June 28+ 2021 weather
21 responses |
Started by metmike - June 27, 2021, 10:34 p.m.
For MWE, the market has contemplated the worst crop that can be and the most bullish new crop information there is.
It took information that was extraordinarily bullish to get up here.
Now, what new information will top that to entice new bulls or additional buying from old bulls?
If there were going to buy, they would have had 10 reasons the last 3 months to do it.
We've run out of speculators willing to buy MWE. It's also a global crop, not just US conditions and the HRW in KS which is the same stuff, thats being harvested now is a record.
I'm not saying that we can't go higher still.......... we can, just that we've run out of buyers short term, at least temporarily and need even MORE bullish news than almost the most bullish possible to inspire it.
Great post, metmike !
Thanks bowyer!
