What does the market know I don't
Corn is down in the red
What changed??
Was there more rain than I know about
I have an idea the only place increased corn acres planted could come from is MN and the Dakotas, most of which is on the edge of serious drought
IA is also on the edge for a good part of the state
Would some body correct me if I am wrong as I am 1000 miles or more away and info helps. I want to be corrected if I am wrong. I don't understand this much red
Nebraska has a good crop with 1/2 of the state irrigated, but that won't make up for the dry places I would think
Southern crop seems decent if they did not get flooded so I don't know what to expect in that part of the corn belt
Mich. under drought monitor
Now Ill. has some very good soil and a lot of that good soil. Maybe Ill is sitting on very good crops for the most part, and close to chicago, has an influence on price
Just some random thoughts
Now for our little part of the world
July rain will tell us what our crop will be. Aug usually gets wetter around here
So far we have had very small amounts but rain has come, just when we start to dry out, so our crop is doing okay. The last rain of 1/2" will carry us until July. The strange thing about our soil is we don't have very high O.M. 2-3 % for the most part. Very sandy soil and poor sand at that. And yet, as strange as it is, we don't need an inch of rain a week, in fact very rarely do we get a weekly rain. Maybe we have high humidity within the Great Lakes, I don't know
Just asking why the corn price is red, and down low
I suppose we were told markets would be volatile. The spring wheat crop should affect grain prices I would think, as wheat should not compete as a feed in the feed lot ration, but maybe Kansas has lots of wheat for feed lots. I just don't know
However, this is one yr where my crop is in question. Every other yr I expect an average crop, within a reasonable range.
I wonder how many others are still in question as to their crop yield
A recent poll, by farmers had the majority guessing below trend line. However, I thought I noticed those who thought below trend line production were looking out their back door and possibly a bit biased
What do you think about my rambling thoughts???
"What does the market know I don't
Corn is down in the red
What changed??
Was there more rain than I know about"
Wayne,
Glad you asked.
As I have been stating and showing since yesterday evening.......there is a ton of rain coming later this week. I told you this BEFORE the market crashed so you could have known about it BEFORE the market reacted just by reading my posts.
Here's a couple of them below. I am not trying to brag but you asked for an explantion and I'm just showing, that I gave it to you BEFORE the market reacted. Like I told mcfarmer yesterday, I don't tell anybody what positions to take........I just give you as much information about the weather and markets as I can and let you decide how to use it.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71166/#71383
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Beans NOT in the Teens
By metmike - June 22, 2021, 12:36 a.m.
YW and thank YOU Bowyer.
up to 4 inch rains to the north of us early in the weekend. Then that much to the south of us today.
I measured .01 in the rain gauge today. Been 2 weeks since our last good rain.
I see that MWE finally was able to get above $8 again just now. With the horrible HRS wheat crop and an additional drop of 10% in the ratings, one would think we should be limit up. The HRS is rated at an incredible 37% P/VP, with only 27% G/Ex!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71355/
Tons of rain for many corn/bean locations in the next week but not much for the HRS wheat crop.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Beans NOT in the Teens
By metmike - June 22, 2021, 3:38 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71166/#71383
This is the latest 2 week rain forecast for the just out GFS Ensemble for 0Z.
The dark red contour is 2.5+ inches of rain........it's HUGE.
Inside that are greater and greater amounts. The gray shade in 5+ inches of rain for s.IL/IN! This is why the beans have reversed to 11c lower tonight after opening higher off of the -2% drop in crop ratings.
Corn was +8c on the -3% crop ratings and got back to unch.
The N/C.Plains and most of MN are pretty dry. The MWE is still holding most of its massive gains after the -10% drop in crop ratings.
These were my thoughts before then warning the bulls:
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Beans NOT in the Teens
By metmike - June 21, 2021, 10:23 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71166/#71380
Here are all the weather maps:
Wayne if you get a chance catch the Snodgrass video below. He has found evidence of not 1, not 2 but 3 high pressure blocking systems in his long term. If that holds the guys out west are going to be in worse shape than all season. The east well get more moisture pumped in so you could easily get another chance to sell some corn at a great price or watch it burn up
Mcfarm,
Do you have a link for that video?
I love watching his videos. He is the best wx communicator that I’ve seen in my life and I may have seen all the best ones.
And number 2 isn’t even close!
BTW, after these massive rains pass by in week 1, my current forecast is getting more and more bullish for July.
The potential for a dome of death type upper level high to bake the crop in the N/C Plains to Upper Midwest where moisture is scarse is pretty high for this far out.
I don’t want to get the bulls too excited though too early because in late June, it’s just like the bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush expression.......only it goes like this:
2-5 inches of widespread rain in week 1 counts MUCH more than a dome in week 2.
https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1004995&mid=9072484#M9072484
one terrible way to get moisture in northern Iowa
Thanks mcfarm!
Wayne, rain chances are really good for you this weekend into early next week.
Mike
If my weather for cast is any way accurate, starting Saturday we have 5 straight days of 70-80 % chances of rain
Probably the tail end of that system moving thru Ill. I forgot to look at amounts
TV last nite said a soggy week end
Funny how the TV doesn't want rain on a week end
Corn should hang on very well until this week end and then hope it does rain
Next up is July hail season
Wayne,
The biggest threat for you ahead will be excessive rain events!
The light brown epicenter below is 7+ inches of rain.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
