The very intense W US heat this month is nearly off the charts in overall severity. Climate change/global warming increases the likelihood and severity of extreme heat events like this one. The following was written two days ago by the brilliant Don Sutherland. He is well-known by readers of AmericanWx like myself. I’d like to know the thoughts of another very smart man and a man who knows as much if not more about CC/GW, our resident expert, MetMike, on what Don says below. There’s no need for me to add anything else as Don explains it very well with amazingly detailed backing data and relevant sources:
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“Last year, Phoenix experienced a historically hot summer. Although the extreme heat held off through May this year, a severe heatwave developed toward mid-June.
The June 2021 heatwave was among Phoenix's and Tucson's most severe June heatwaves and their most severe heatwave this early in the season. This heatwave developed as an extreme upper air ridge evolved during an era of rising June temperatures and an ongoing drought. An extreme heat event commenced at Tucson on June 11 and it commenced at Phoenix on June 13.
Such events are likely to become even more frequent in the years ahead. Anthropogenic warming is creating a growing likelihood of long-duration extreme events through more frequent wave resonance events (Kornhuber et al., 2016 and Mann et al., 2017).
Already, the frequency and intensity of compound summertime hot extremes (events that combine daytime and nighttime heat where such temperatures are above their 90th percentile for their calendar) has been increasing especially in geographic locations that include the U.S. Southwest (Wang 2020). The increase in forcing associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases is the dominant driver of this outcome (Wang 2020).
Table 1: Phoenix's High Temperatures during June 12-20, 2021
Table 2: Phoenix's Average June Temperatures (30-Year Moving Average)
Table 3: Phoenix's Record High Maximum Temperatures
Table 4: Phoenix's Record High Minimum Temperatures
A portion of this heatwave qualified as the 8th Extreme Heat Event (EHE) on record for June, as at least 3 days saw the maximum , temperature exceed the 97.5th percentile (Phoenix: 115° or above; Tucson: 110° or above), the high temperature average exceeded the 97.5th percentile (Phoenix: 115° or above; Tucson: 110° or above), and all high temperatures exceeded the 81st percentile (Phoenix: 110° or above; Tucson: 105° or above) in June-August high temperatures for the 1971-2000 base period (Clarke, et al.,2014). The extreme heat event began on June 11 in Tucson and June 12 at Phoenix.
Table 5: Phoenix's Extreme Heat Events in June (1896-2021)
Additional Records:
Earliest 116° or above high temperature: June 17, 2021 (old record: June 19, 2016 and 2017)
Earliest 4 consecutive 115° days: June 15-18, 2021 (old record: June 19-22, 1968)
Most consecutive 115° days: 6, June 15-20, 2021 (old record: 4, June 19-22, 1968; June 25-28, 1979; June 25-28, 1990; July 26-29, 1995; July 28-31, 2020; and, August 16-19, 2020)
Earliest 4-day average high temperature of 115° or above: June 14-17, 2021 (old record: June 18-21, 2017)
Earliest 5-day average high temperature of 115° or above: June 14-18, 2021 (old record: June 17-21, 2017)
Earliest 6-day average high temperature of 115° or above: June 13-18, 2021 (old record: June 18-23, 2017)
Earliest 7-day average high temperature of 115° or above: June 13-19, 2021 (old record: June 18-24, 2017)
Earliest 8-day average high temperature of 115° or above: June 13-20, 2021 (old record: June 18-25, 2017)
Earliest mean temperature of 100° or above: June 15, 2021 (old record: June 17, 2008)
Earliest 2-day average mean temperature of 100° or above: June 15-16, 2021 (old record: June 17-18, 2008 and 2015)
Earliest 3-day average mean temperature of 100° or above: June 14-16, 2021 (old record: June 17-19, 2015)
Earliest 4-day average mean temperature of 100° or above: June 14-17, 2021 (old record: June 18-21, 2017).”
And here’s a followup from a few hours ago from Don addressing the June 2021 extreme heat in Phoenix:
“Ongoing climate change is driving an increase in Phoenix's temperatures. That increase is making hot synoptic patterns even hotter than they would otherwise be. In addition, one is witnessing a profound change in the ratio of hot days that exceed the 95th percentile for heat to cold days that exceed the 95th percentile for cold. The former is rising steadily. The latter has nearly disappeared (using 1971-90 percentile rankings).”
This is going to end up being one of the best threads ever here Larry(for me personally).
I totally believe the data because its coming from a source with tremendous credibility(WxFollower).
Here are 2 affects that could explain the amplification in the LONGER TERM warming for this area from greenhouse gases.
1. Just like Arctic amplification of the warming for the coldest regions(though it hasn't worked out as expected in the Antarctic) because they are the driest regions on the planet and lacking the most important greenhouse gas, H2O, which results in CO2 having a much greater affect. Desert regions are that way because of the dry climate.
The absorption radiative bands are more saturated already from H2O in places with more H2O, where as areas with less H2O allow the additional CO2 to play a more significant role in absorption in those unsaturated bands.
2. There appears to be a natural element based on teleconnections that has amplified the warming out west and reduced the warming in the Midwest. Midwest Summers have actually been cooler during this period. This could actually be related to the Cornbelt creation of a microclimate from the tightly packed rows of corn and the massive amounts of evapotranspiration that results in dew points being 5-10 degrees higher over huge area of close to a dozen states during the growing season.
I have very important meeting at 9am that I should have been preparing for and will be there for the rest of the morning but will follow up with numerous posts, that will feature me learning at the same time.
Thanks much!
Thanks, Mike! I’m looking forward to more of your thoughts on this.
As much as I like Don’s posts, I think they would have been even better if he had mentioned the very likely additional significant role of UHI on mainly Phoenix’s minimum temperatures. I assume you’d agree that UHI has contributed much more to higher minimums than to higher maximums and is I believe the main reason why minimums have increased by a significantly higher amount vs the increase for maximums. So, I feel that higher minimums are due to a combo of UHI and AGW, with each having significant effects and UHI possibly having even more than AGW.
For this reason, in order to get the best feel for AGW’s effects independent of UHI, I tend to focus only on trends in maximums as I believe that the vast majority of those increases has been due to AGW. To be fair, Don focused much more on those.
I asked Don about the UHI's effect on mainly lows and he agreed. Thus we're pretty much on the same page:
"Yes, UHI has played an important role with the rising minimum temperatures. That’s why I suspect that minimum readings have increased faster than maximum ones.'
Sorry for the delay Larry.
I was catching up with stuff here and elsewhere all day and saving these posts for last because they will be the most fun.
You raised other great points on the Urban Heat Island effect being a 3rd element in the longer term warming as well as much of the warming around the planet is occurring during the night time hours vs daytime hours so we are having many more record warm minimum temperatures compared to record warm maximum temperatures.
More on that in a second but since Phoenix is just 1 city(a hot one) the statistics for 1 city can be quite different than the statistics for other individual cities.
Let's look at 424 cities(most of them) in the US, to see what the pattern has been. It actually shows us something that is very surprising. I was not even expecting the extent of it. There has NOT been an increase in record highs going back to 1960. In fact, there has been a DECREASE in daily record maximums over the past 60 years.
Outside of the major Midwest drought year 2012, when we had the 3rd highest bar on the graph, the top 2 record high setting years were 1962/63 and 9 of the top 10 years with the most record setting highs were from 1990 or earlier. Only 1(2012) since then.
This is the complete opposite of what everybody thinks.
Like you mentioned, it's the nighttime lows that are being affected the most with a well defined drop in the number of record cold daily lows.
The 1960s(coldest decade) featured around 4 times (4,000) as many record lows as the last decade(1,000) has recorded.
The graph below is updated thru 2018 because the study was done in 2019.
Let's see how this jives with state all time record cold and record heat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_temperature_extremes
Only 3 states seeing an all time high temperature since 2000. But also 3 states setting an all time low.
What really stands out are the record highs during the decade of the 1930's. A whopping 24 states, almost half of them set their all time hottest temperature ever during the 1930's. WOW! They still stand today!
By this metric, the 1930's, by an extremely wide margin......... had the most extreme heat in the United States.
Let's look for more evidence of this.
On the next 2 pages, I bust the EPA and NOAA for blatantly and intentionally manipulating data to mislead people.....using THEIR actions/posts.
I have been using a graphic that the EPA featured for numerous years that was consistent with the measured data of the extremely hot 1930's and wondered how long it would take for them to get rid of it because it was inconvenient to the climate crisis narrative:
I featured this here at least 10 times in the last 3 years. It shows the legit massive heat waves during the Dust Bowl decade that we know really did happen because it lines up with the 24 all time STATE record highs on the previous page(half of the country had their hottest temps in history........during the 1930's https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71520), as many as all the other decades combined........as well as data that I have on my computer for that period.
Dang good thing that I saved it because they completely changed it below. WOW! The difference is incredible. Talk about dishonesty.
6-26-21 update: The temperatures and data from the 1930's could not have suddenly changed in 2021. They used a new method or trick (from another source) that manipulates the processing of the data so now the graph of ........supposedly the same data looks totally different below. Going from an authentic/objective study/method ( Kunkel, 2016) consistent with the historical surface temperature observations to NOAA's manipulated version of the same data in 2021.....By changing the statistical methodology they managed to lower the weighting for the dozens of extreme heat waves that decade. A spike in heat waves that was 5 times higher than any value on the graph outside of the 1930's previously..... is now lower than the spikes of the last decade and absurdly, the heat wave trend shows a steady increase that now lines up with all the global warming temperature graphs that show a climate crisis.........instead of it showing an exception/enormous outlier exception (that really happened) in the 1930's. Again, it's 2021, the 1930's can't suddenly get cooler(and all the other decades suddenly get hotter) because that weather already happened and was recorded accurately. Only the statistical method to depict that weather changed.
WOW!
We just saw on previous pages here, the data that suggests the graph above is accurate but they switched to a brand new graph 2 months ago using a source that gave them a graph that fits the climate crisis narrative.
This would be like us searching the internet to pick our science/information based on what we want it to be using any source with manufactured or adjusted realities that match up with our preconceived notions or ideologies.
Scroll down for more compelling evidence that the corrupt United States EPA, in April 2021, rewrote THEIR VERSION of US heat wave history (by switching to a different source) to wipe out the true significance of the long lived, widespread heat waves during the Dust Bowl decade.........1930's..........to make global warming/climate change appear to be MUCH worse than it really is today.
These are some of the occasions that I used the previous graph/data in just the last year. This reminds me of when the IPCC rewrote global climate history 25 years ago to wipe out the Medieval Warm Period that was as warm as the current warm period.
11-28-21: Some of the links below no longer show the original graph(but I copied it already here at this post)........because they replaced the honest graph that showed the 1930'S as easily the hottest in the US, with one that doesn't show that anymore or in some cases, they start the data with the 1960's global cooling years.
The 1930's didn't suddenly get cooler............they adjusted the data to make the 1930's appear MUCH cooler......dishonest scientists!!!
Not maybe but definitely dishonest scientists!!!!
Really Busted Climate models going back to the 1980's
By metmike - April 22, 2021, 11:45 p.m. https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68079/#68390
Scientific American: “What Climate Change Does to the Human Body”
Started by metmike - Aug. 30, 2020, 2:27 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58371/
Re: Re: 130 degrees at Death Valley!
By metmike - Aug. 17, 2020, 8:27 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57782/#57805
Re: Re: This day in history July 24, 2020-Dust Bowl
By metmike - July 24, 2020, 1:29 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56668/#56670
By metmike - July 1, 2020, 4:21 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/54938/#54941
By metmike - May 20, 2020, 9:39 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52496/#52519
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metmike: What the heck did people do during the decade of the 1930's............before air conditioning?
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-high-and-low-temperatures
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EPA BEFORE (Data source: Kunkel, 2016)
This indicator describes trends in unusually hot and cold temperatures across the United States.
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EPA AFTER Data source: NOAA, 2021Web update: April 2021
August 3, 2021: Holy Cow! They got busted and took down the graphic!!!! Luckily I copied it above before they could remove it!!!
Instead, they added back the original correct one from the front page and moved it to a different page, figure 3 so that it doesn't show up immediately like before.
Now on the front page, they only start with the 1960's, when there was global cooling so they don't have to show the 1930's anymore!!!
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-waves
What a bunch of dishonest scientists!
Fortunately, I copied and saved the previous ones shown above.
This is what they have now on the front page.
It starts with the 1960's!!!!
EPA latest
As you know, the current heat wave out West is weather from a natural pattern(even if global warming makes warmer temperatures more likely, especially at night.
Recent heat waves out West are connected to the extreme drought conditions out there. Dry soils have less heat capacity and the air above the surface, being much drier can be heated more quickly and to a higher temperature.
This is why deserts always have the worlds hottest temperatures.
The drought out West and this current weather pattern has likely been the result of the recent full fledged La Nina at times and at other times a La Nina temperature profile in the Eastern Tropical Pacific..that has dominated for over a year. Also the -PDO, more on the -PDO in a minute.
Interestingly, a La Nina, by definition is from COLD water anomolies in that location and a global cooling pattern. Climate change from global warming CANNOT cause colder temperatures in the Pacific.
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The blue shades on the map below are part of the persistent cool anomaly in that region which has caused upper level ridging and drought in the West for the past year.
Last year, we heard that the drought and wildfires were all from climate change............WRONG. Just the opposite.
We need more global warming in the Pacific to replace the cooler waters if we want to increase the rains downstream in the US.
Here are the authentic facts and science from last year when they did that:
California governor blames wildfires on climate 'emergency'
33 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 14, 2020, 12:08 a.m.
You know what the PDO is of course.
We have recently shifted to a -PDO regime which coincides with more La Nina's and Natural global cooling.
This natural global cooling has temporarily offset the gradual, baseline warming from the physics of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere.
May Global Temperature +0.08 Deg.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70301/
https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71286/#71287
There is a strong connection with oceanic temperature cycles/variations but am not very confident that this one has the 30/60 year regularity that we have assumed. You stated that the PDO index shows the PDO will soon reenter its 30 year cool cycle and that means global temps will soon fall.
However, the PDO was negative to even strongly negative much of the time from late 1998 to 2013, a 15 year period. There is every reason to believe that this was associated with the pause or slow down in global warming and we also had more La Nina’s…..no coincidence.
Then the PDO spiked back to strongly positive/positive for several years, that featured the super El Nino and spike up in global warming. We’ve actually been back in -PDO territory for over a year now and by no coincidence have recently experienced a La Nina and a bit of global cooling.
It’s possible that the cycle was around 60 years for 2 consecutive cycles(if we were measuring with enough accuracy over a century ago) and then, just assumed that the periodicity, must be 60 years because we didn’t have more cycles than those 2 to go from. The recent shift to 15 years of -PDO, then the sudden ++PDO for several years should give us pause to stay open minded enough to be ready to adjust what we think that we know about this cycle/index based on the most recent data and not let past assumptions get in the way of learning new things.
There is no question that a +PDO regime favors more El Nino’s that belch out more warmth from the biggest heat storing entity on the planet and a -PDO, like we have now, favors more cooler tropical Pacific water La Nina’s which do the exact opposite.
https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php
I’m no modeling expert but would say the -PDO is a factor in the recent La Nina. It also means that a new global temperature monthly record high anomaly is unlikely for the rest of the year. When that happens without the assistance of an El NIno, it will take awhile for the baseline warming to catch up to the previous record spike highs, from the El Nino…… which is more evidence that the warming must be pretty slow.
This was my 2nd comment about the PDO below that main article:
Mike Maguire
Reply to SAMURAI
June 20, 2021 3:00 pm
Sam,
Sorry your first reply vanished but thanks for being persistent. The Pacific seems screwed up but only based on our expectations. Maybe if we had accurate measurements going back 2,000+ years, this screwed up pattern might have been recorded enough times for it to be considered a normal part of the PDO variation. How can we possibly know if this is an anomaly that never happened before or some thing that happens every couple hundred years?
Thanks for adding the 20 year +PDO from 1978-98 that I forget to mention(after mainly 30 year periods between +PDO and -PDO). This being followed by 15 years of -PDO(1998-2013), I think resulted in speculation that maybe the periodicity was shortening. But the very brief period of +PDO and strong El Nino following that, which has reversed back to -PDO has scientists trying to make sense of it………..so I really liked your quote “Truth is the daughter of time”
Proof of that is shown today with so many wrong assumptions about global warming/climate change from decades ago that continue to be used…………causing an increase in divergence between modeling projections and observations because of applying the principle of “the science is settled” 2 decades ago.
They should have said “the politics are settled” because those outdated projections still being used based on assumptions most useful to politics are no longer authentic to objective science in the year 2021.
I mentioned at the top, that the Midwest has actually been cooling during the Summers at the same time that Phoenix has been warming.
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So one might speculate that since the Midwest/Plains are experiencing a change in climate to cooler in the growing season, because of that change and the teleconnections/spacing in the large scale features, can this be having the opposite affect on the main features to the west/east?
So the West/Rockies to the west and the East Coast to the east?
Making them hotter?
Heres one article blaming the drought on climate change and the heat wave in part too.
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/s-heat-wave-american-west-rcna1226
"Researchers said in a study published last year in the journal Science that man-made climate change tied to the emission of greenhouse gases can be blamed for about half of the historic drought.
Scientists studying the dry period that began in 2000 looked at a nine-state area from Oregon and Wyoming down through California and New Mexico and found only one other that was slightly larger. That drought started in 1575, a decade after St. Augustine, Florida, was founded and before the Pilgrims landed on Plymouth Rock in 1620"
metmike:
Interesting to note other scientists saying this:
"Through studies of tree rings, sediment and other natural evidence, researchers have documented multiple droughts in California that lasted 10 or 20 years in a row during the past 1,000 years — compared to the mere three-year duration of the current dry spell. The two most severe megadroughts make the Dust Bowl of the 1930s look tame: a 240-year-long drought that started in 850 and, 50 years after the conclusion of that one, another that stretched at least 180 years."
"We continue to run California as if the longest drought we are ever going to encounter is about seven years,” said Scott Stine, a professor of geography and environmental studies at Cal State East Bay. “We’re living in a dream world.”
California, the nation’s most populous state with 38 million residents, has built a massive economy, Silicon Valley, Hollywood and millions of acres of farmland, all in a semiarid area. The state’s dams, canals and reservoirs have never been tested by the kind of prolonged drought that experts say will almost certainly occur again.
Stine, who has spent decades studying tree stumps in Mono Lake, Tenaya Lake, the Walker River and other parts of the Sierra Nevada, said that the past century has been among the wettest of the last 7,000 years.
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Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-07-california-wetter-century.html#jCp
Wow, Mike!!! You're one of the very few who I know of who can take on Don (in a classy way, of course...with extensive facts/data combined with extensive knowledge of US wx patterns/history). I think he'd have his hands full if you two were to met up in the same thread. I've been following Don for almost as long as I've been following you and have never seen anyone be able to really take him on with competing analytical based posts based on facts/data. He's also 100% classy like you.
I can see it now: Don S. vs MetMike meeting up in the global warming match of the century!
Out of these last posts you have made, the current intense western drought combined with cooler Midwest due to more vegetation have me most interested. You two could conceivably largely agree on this as Don S mainly was saying that AGW has increased the likelihood and severity of intense heatwaves like the one the west is having now. I'm not getting the impression you're disagreeing with that idea as I know you believe AGW exists. It just is that you're looking at other factors that are in play that Don didn't. Do I have your position right on this?
Thanks for the kind words/compliments Larry. I think you have it right.
For sure the planet is warmer by just over 1 deg. C over the last century with the coldest places during the coldest times of year(and night) warming the most.
The physics of CO2 are irrefutable.
I'm glad that you brought this up because I have not been thinking about deserts and really dry areas experiencing amplified warming for the same reason that the coldest places warm more(cold air is drier, so less H2O allows CO2 to be more effective).
I have noted the deserts(and vicinity) actually greening up a bit which had me not looking at them also heating up a bit more than other places but it makes sense.
I need to look at more data to fully appreciate whats going on.
Deserts greening up from rising CO2 below
https://phys.org/news/2013-07-greening-co2.html
Increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) have helped boost green foliage across the world's arid regions over the past 30 years through a process called CO2 fertilisation, according to CSIRO research.
In findings based on satellite observations, CSIRO, in collaboration with the Australian National University (ANU), found that this CO2 fertilisation correlated with an 11 per cent increase in foliage cover from 1982-2010 across parts of the arid areas studied in Australia, North America, the Middle East and Africa, according to CSIRO research scientist, Dr Randall Donohue.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332220301007
I'm not sure why Don picked Phoenix but if he doesn't live there or have any specific reason that you know of, he could be cherry picking a specific location that stands way out like a sore thumb because the warming might be in the top 1% of warming for mid latitude cities.
I'm sure that you can find plenty of high latitude locations like Fairbanks Alaska or in Russia/Canada at similar high latitudes with stats that show at least as much warming as Phoenix.
In all those cases, they are still too cold, even after the warming.
Just the opposite is true of Phoenix, where global warming is a bad thing.
As you saw in the graphic at this link with over 400 other cities in the US, most at higher latitudes than Phoenix, the daily max temp records are actually a bit LESS than they were 30-60 years ago.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71518
So what better represents the objective science and overall big picture?
Data from 424 cities?
or data from 1 city?
It's important to know the anomalies and try to understand WHY they are anomalies but if you are not telling people that its an anomaly(and also NOT showing them the mean/average) and are trying to pass off the anomaly in a manner that suggests more weighting than it deserves.........than its biased science.
Cherry picking as we like to say.
The problem often comes when an elite authority does it because they will always know more than everybody else and be trusted and also often have more data than other people.
The person with the most authentic, objective data will usually win the debate.
Almost nobody has weather/climate data. This is why they just believe what they read.
The current -PDO is a HUGE..HUGE! deal right now.
This is a wonderful article about it from a couple of months ago.
I'm convinced that it caused the global warming pause or slow down from 1998-2013ish and is doing the same right now.
You will always have more La Nina's during a -PDO......which is also why the models are predicting the current, almost La Nina conditions to morph back to NOAA declared La Nina conditions later this year.
I believe the La Nina type configuration to the Pacific temp profile right now is acting on the atmosphere similar to a typical La Nina.
https://climateimpactcompany.com/cool-phase-of-the-pacific-decadal-oscillation-strengthens-2-2/
Early next week, Portland/Seattle/Eugene/Kamloops are forecasted to have highs that would be a whopping 11/10/10/9 above their June highs and 6/3/4/6 above their all-time highs!! Those aren't typos.
More from Don S. at AmericanWx today, this time about this upcoming historic Pacific NW heatwave:
"A heatwave of potentially unprecedented proportions for parts of the Pacific Northwest Region, including Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia is now in its early stages of evolving. June high temperature records will likely be shattered across much of the region. Numerous all-time high temperature records will likely be challenged or broken.
On Monday, the most populated region in the Pacific Northwest could see widespread temperature anomalies more than 4 standard deviations above the normal figures. A small part of the region could experience temperatures more than 6 standard deviations above normal.
Standardized Temperature Anomalies (6/28 18z):
Select June, All-Time Records, Forecast Maximum Temperatures:
Western sections of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, including Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver, will likely see the highest temperatures during the June 26-29 period. Elsewhere, exceptional warmth could persist into the opening days of July.
Minimum temperatures will also approach monthly and all-time lows, especially in areas affected by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, namely Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver.
Climate change is increasing the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events. One important mechanism is through wave resonance events (Mann et al., 2017). If one steps back to a larger hemispheric perspective starting near the beginning of June, one has witnessed the emergence of mega-heat domes in a "whack-a-mole" fashion in the Northern Plains, Southwest, and northern and eastern Europe (including northwestern Russia) that led to record heat, including some monthly or all-time record high temperatures. This latest heat dome is the fourth such major event this month."
Thanks Larry for bringing this incredible heat event to our attention.
Dry soils and record heat go hand in hand........especially in the Summer. Sunshine on wet soils use up alot of energy with evaporation. With a dry soil, the solar radiation can go mostly to heating the near surface air.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
With regards to this huge heat dome being caused by climate change and the study that you showed.
1. Certainly the atmosphere is slightly warmer (1 deg. C) and baseline warming will always add X amount of potential warming to any event.
2. This is mainly a WEATHER event, maybe 98%.
3. The long lived, natural drought from the La Nina signature and COOL water in the tropical Pacific. Global warming can't cause cool water in the Pacific.
4. Along with the drought from the La Nina, there is almost always individual weather patterns that feature extreme heat, especially this time of year. Wet soils and more evaporation greatly favors cool Summer temps and more rains. Dry soils favor heat ridges.
5. If you asked me to give the name of one climate scientist who's stuff I consider the most biased and who has repeatedly fed the science community junk and alarmist climate science..........and has enriched himself doing it, I would not hesitate to say "Michael Mann" every single time. His work on climate and weather is dominated by speculative anti science crap that passes as objective science.
Michael Mann is the one person most responsible for climate history to be rewritten to wipe out the Medieval Warm Period based on his 1 tree ring study............wiping out over 100 studies before that which found the opposite of what he found.
I can show you dozens of links that prove he's a big fat fraud(using science). If he states something, my first reaction is to NOT believe it.
Here is just 1 below. We should start a new thread to deal with Michael Mann so it doesn't mess this one up.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/06/14/tree-rings-michael-manns-hockey-stick/
Mike,
Excellent point! I am aware of the drought and was wondering if you were going to mention it for the Pacific NW heat. I understand that it is likely enhancing the high temps and was actually going to ask Don his thoughts about how much the drought is contributing to this. I may copy and paste your post and of course would give credit to a "pro-met". Would you mind me mentioning your full name?
My thoughts: Drought is enhancing this but still look how far off the charts this is forecated to be. Also, as Don said, this will be the 4th extreme heatwave in different locations just this month. So, I believe that AGW is very likely having enough influence to make all of this happen with it made worse in the W US by drought.
***Edit: Also, perhaps AGW/climate change, itself, has been a factor leading to the W US drought??
Larry,
No, this is almost all weather from the natural La Nina.
The current drought is also almost all weather from the La Nina. La Nina's are COLD water in the tropical Pacific. Global warming CAN'T cause cold water.
El Nino's cause MORE rain and global warming and they increase in tandem with El Nino's. It's rock solid meteorology based on the analogs and physics.
Global warming results in LESS drought in the US.
Climate change with its greater El Nino's protect us from this current pattern.
We have been having modest global cooling the past year, in tandem with the La Nina.......which also caused the drought. We need MORE climate change back to the pattern before the natural La Nina took over. This is NOT from climate change.......other than a couple of extra degrees with the warmer atmosphere when it does happen from natural sources.
Let me show it to you again. Look where global temperatures have gone over the last year+............down(bottom graph). It's because of the La Nina and COLD water in the tropical Pacific. I am not just saying this now. I predicted it over a year ago, last May(2020) based on the same principles I'm stating now and in the thread below this. Read is carefully because it explains much of whats going on right now. Every NATURAL La Nina drought is different. We can never tell if it will be out West, in the Midwest or in the South.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59007/#59008
By metmike - Sept. 11, 2020, 11:38 a.m.
metmike: The news/articles are misleading.
The atmosphere has been in La Nina mode all Summer!!!
La Nina's don't suddenly form.....................they evolve over months of time. While they are evolving/developing, the atmosphere takes on a La Nina signature well before(months earlier) the "official" NOAA declaration of "Hey everybody, we have the official La Nina conditions"
To be an official La Nina, the conditions usually are present for 3 months already.
We told you about this back in May:
My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer!
39 responses |
Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52701/
The current NATURAL La Nina has been causing the drought out West to be much worse.........ALL SUMMER. And has greatly contributed to the record number of tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
May Global Temperature +0.08 Deg.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70301/
https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
Here is more that was continued to be elaborated on continuously and consistently based on sound science all of last year into this year.
California governor blames wildfires on climate 'emergency'
33 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 14, 2020, 12:08 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59093/
La Nina Winter coming up
4 responses |
Started by metmike - Oct. 17, 2020, 12:39 a.m.
Mike,
I am aware of the drought and was wondering if you were going to mention it for the Pacific NW heat. I understand that it is likely enhancing the high temps and was actually going to ask Don his thoughts about how much the drought is contributing to this. I may copy and paste your post and of course would give credit to a "pro-met". Would you mind me mentioning your full name? TIA
I am also telling you with absolute certainty that -PDO's cause more La Nina's and with 100% certainty they cause natural global cooling(not enough to offset more powerful greenhouse gas warming form the proven physics of green house gases) .
They also cause, with absolute certainty more droughts in the US by far. We never know where the individual droughts will be downstream from the drought favorable Pacific Ocean temperature profile.
I would bet, with enough very accurate historical Pacific temp maps, you could correlate with exact geographic regions downstream having droughts in the US based on where the cool regions were in the tropical pacific.
1998-2013 had a -PDO with more La Ninas and our last severe, major widespread cornbelt drought of 2012.
Previous to that, we had our longest stretch in recorded history without major droughts in the Cornbelt........because of the global warming and El Ninos.
When was the previous major US Cornbelt drought Before 2012?
1988 from a La Nina!
La Nina's only (greatly) increase the chances of and amount of area under drought.
El Nino's do the opposite.
Climate change and El Nino's have been extremely good to the United states agricultural productively.
La Nina's like this are always bad news some place in the US, often really bad news. They are the opposite of what climate change and global warming is causing........thus, they must be mostly natural.
El Nino's from Global Warming mean bad news weather for some places in the world for sure but we're talking US. They can cause torrential rains and mudslides along the West Coast from atmospheric rivers(that sort of thing) in the Winter but NOT droughts. They can cause TOO MUCH rain in other places of the US but rarely Drought.
This current drought was caused by ANTI climate change (-:
Larry,
You can use every iota of my stuff and my name is Mike Maguire.......metmike here.
Thanks for asking.
You can use any of this stuff too:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27864/
I will add too, that when we have a natural La Nina caused pattern like this, the baseline warmth that has been added to the atmosphere clearly gives it more heat potential.
How much?
I'm not smart enough to calculate that but would say that many people that really don't know more than me, THINK they are smart enough to do it.
You know me. I deal with authentic facts, empirical data and observations.........not speculative theories and models from computer simulations using subjective equations from biased scientists.
This is a powerful piece of data for me.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71518
There is much more than this to individual weather systems but record daily max's for 424 cities over almost 60 years is pretty comprehensive proof that we are not seeing a trend........in fact, the trend is slightly lower, not higher. Interestingly, the one exception was 2012..........when we had a major drought from a La Nina and -PDO.
Guess what we have now?
A major drought from a La Nina and -PDO.
This just reinforces the science I've laid out clearly. Most of the 1980's/90's featured global warming and more El Nino's with a +PDO regime(then the -PDO from 1998-2013)
We had the Super El Nino in 2015/16 with a spike in global warming! But you don't see a record high temperature spike on the graph in those years do you?
Larry,
I hadn't read the sources of Don's information until just now.
Michael Mann is on there at least once.
In one study they state:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-14233-8
"Here we show that during 1960–2012, significant increases in Northern Hemisphere average frequency (~1.03 days decade−1) and intensity (~0.28 °C decade−1) of summertime compound hot extremes arise primarily from summer-mean warming. The forcing of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) is robustly detected and largely accounts for observed trends. Observationally-constrained projections suggest an approximate eightfold increase in hemispheric-average frequency and a threefold growth in intensity of summertime compound hot extremes by 2100 (relative to 2012), given uncurbed GHG emissions. Accordingly, end-of-century population exposure to compound hot extremes is projected to be four to eight times the 2010s level, dependent on demographic and climate scenarios."
I don't have the time to spend hours tearing apart junk mainstream science right now but have already shown the data on the previous page that PROVES that extreme daytime max records have not been increasing in the US. It's mainly been night time temps with the most warming and its more amplified, the farther north that you go(in most cases beneficial-but not Phoenix) and the drier the air is. There has also been some slight warming during the day in most locations but not extreme.
The fact that they are projecting a massive increase in 2100 means it will almost certainly be wrong because its entirely based on climate models that double the real amount of CO2 forcing based on actual measurements and performance. This is an example of the crap, alarmist science that has brainwashed mainstream climate science.
If their study had it right, we would be seeing a very strong upward trend in record high temperatures that coincided with global warming. There is a zero trend that I proved.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71518
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71520
I even caught the EPA red handed changing their data(source) in April to wipe out the Dust Bowl heat waves that we know with absolute certainty happened based on history(I have all the data, the 1930's were light years hotter than anything recent) but now..............are gone according to them.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71521
Profound: Smoking Guns!! Proof with accurate 2 decade long measurement of the actual amount of radiative forcing caused by CO2 of 1 irrefutable reason for WHY global climate models continue to be too warm. Climate emergency is really about social justice and brainwashing people. Even MORE confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming. Models clearly too warm yet incredibly programmed to get even HOTTER! Now, even more confirmation why the models are too warm. August 2020 https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57636/
I just bumped into this discussion/thread from last year around this time which featured a little debate with WxDave, a private meteorologist for over 2 decades, on climate change. Great stuff!
In no way am I downplaying this likely unprecedented upcoming heat wave for the areas affected. Previous heat waves, like last Summer may have been exaggerated as indicated below but this one looks to be in a heat class of its own for this location.
Last
Historic Heatwave?
16 responses |
Started by Jim_M - July 1, 2020, 2:09 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/54938/
Larry,
You are welcome to just send Don this entire thread and let him read everything if you want.
Just out from one of the best, objective meteorologists in the world(in my opinion), who lives and forecasts for this area and has wonderful insight to go along with his forecast philosophy:
Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
June 24, 2021
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/06/24/update-on-northwest-us-heat-wave-predictions/
"Finally, a number of people have asked about the role of global warming on this event. Is global warming contributing to this heatwave? The answer is certainly yes. Would we have had a record heatwave without global warming. The answer is yes as well.
Our region has warmed by up to 1-2F during the past fifty years and that will enhance the heatwave. Increasing CO2 is probably the biggest contributor to the warming
But consider that the temperature anomalies (differences from normal) during this event will reach 30-35F. The proximate cause of this event is a huge/persistent ridge of high pressure, part of a highly anomalous amplification of the upper-level wave pattern.
There is no evidence that such a wave pattern is anything other than natural variability (I have done research on this issue and published in the peer-reviewed literature on this exact topic).
So without global warming, a location that was 104F would have been 102F. Still a severe heat wave, just slightly less intense."
metmike: This is what my work has shown also.
Larry,
Thanks for starting this thread. Hard to believe it's been this much fun in just over a day (-:
I was busy doing tons of things yesterday and was caught off guard by the EPA completely changing their depiction of US heat wave history with no time to analyze what they actually did(we know why).
I made the analysis this morning:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71521
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71522
metmike: One of the most impressive displays ever of accurately explaining this unique heat wave from natural variability (not having anything to do with climate change) using the authentic physical laws of meteorology.
Update 2 on Northwest US Heat Wave Predictions
Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
The Reason for the Extreme Warmth on Monday–And My Podcast on the Heat Wave is Out
I think I understand why the temperatures in western Oregon and Washington will be so stunningly extreme on Sunday and Monday.
A unique combination of factors will come together to make the unthinkable possible. Forget the “heat dome” explanations found in the Seattle Times and some media outlets, or those saying that the extreme heat can only be explained by global warming.
I will call the phenomenon a downslope heat surge on the western slopes of the Cascades.
A relative of the extreme heat associated with Santa Ana winds in southern California, but with a twist.
An Unusual Collection of Ingredients
To get this amazing event, a series of ingredients had to occur at the same time and same place. To put it another way, it is like throwing several dice and having all of them come up with sixes.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/06/26/update-2-on-northwest-us-heat-wave-predictions/
To illustrate, there is the weather chart for around 5000 ft (850 hPa pressure) that shows the key features. A narrow zone of strong southeasterly flow will be created that will descend the western slopes of the Cascades.
The air will start off warm, with origins from the desert southwest, but will warm further as it descends the Cascades into western Washington. Why warm more? Because the air will be compressed as it descends into western Washington.
"Why did we get this high amplitude ridge? It is associated with a highly amplified wave pattern in the eastern Pacific, which may have been caused by a tropical system interacting with the jet stream (see below). This is the result of natural variability ( I did a paper exploring this issue with climate models)"
Portland NWS: https://www.weather.gov/pqr/
Seattle NWS: https://www.weather.gov/sew/
Latest readings in the Northwest below, updated constantly:
Portland OR, just hit 104 Deg. F, which is the hottest temperature ever for the month of June for that city.
Previously set downtown in 1942 at 102 Deg. F.
Should be hotter tomorrow. The all time high is 107 Deg. F.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg5.pdf
Mike,
Thanks for your great contributions. Portland later hit 108, which obliterates the 102 June record high and beat 107 for a new alltime high record! And believe it or not, this is likely to turn out to be tame relative to the next two days!! Moreover, this type of thing (obliteration of records) is/will be the case in many other cities between now and Monday in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia!
The drought combined with the current anomalous pattern is a significant contributor, thanks largely to La Niña/-PDO as you have pointed out. But I have to also agree with Don S. that AGW is also likely a significant contributor not just based on the record obliterations in that region but also based on this being the fourth extreme heatwave just this month in different locations (Desert SW, N Plains, and Russia). Even you are saying a 2F contribution from AGW is a reasonable assumption due to the 2F warming of the globe since the 1970s, alone. Could it be that it is greater than 2F?
Inspired by Mike since nobody else even mentioned the drought in their thread, I just posted this to Don and the other readers there along with the drought map:
“Do I think AGW is contributing to this? I strongly feel that way. The globe is ~2F warmer than it was just since the 1970s and ~3 warmer than 1900 if I’m not mistaken. And this is the fourth extreme heatwave just this month to go along with Desert SW, N Plains, and Russia as Don pointed out. But is the likely contribution to this more than, say, 2-3F? That’s impossible to know. One thing that is an additional major contributor is the widespread drought in the area (see below), likely caused largely by La Niña, combining with the very anomalous Pacific NW ridge.
Do y’all think the AGW contribution to this heatwave is likely more than ~2-3F? Do you think that the widespread W US drought is a bigger contributor? Would we be looking at a historic heatwave had there been no drought? Note that the 3 big US heatwaves have all occurred in widespread drought regions as per the map below:”
——————
I’ll post here if there are any responses.
Thanks Larry,
Absolutely the drought is greatly contributing to how extreme the heat is.
The physics tell us that the air over dry soils heats up quicker.
it takes more energy to raise the temperature of one kilogram of wet soil by one degree than to raise the temperature of one kilogram of dry soil by one degree. (The specific heat of wet soil is 0.35 cal/gram and that of dry soil is 0.19 cal/gram.)
So, sunlight raises the temperature of the top layer of dry soil faster than it raises the temperature of the top layer of wet soil; the air in contact with the dry soil becomes warmer and heats up much faster. We are near the peak sun angle for the year too which is maximizing this affect.
We see this around the world in the desert regions where the highest daytime readings occur on a regular basis....because the soils are so dry.
The best proof that we have of this was the 1930's Dust Bowl Decade. By a very wide margin, the driest decade in US recorded history. Also by an extremely wide margin, the decade with the most all time record highs. 24 out of the 50 states had their hottest temperature ever recorded in this 1 decade.......because it was so dry.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_temperature_extremes
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/conus_palmerindex_june_1934.png?resize=550%2C500
On the contribution from greenhouse gas warming. I'm with Cliff Mass on this one. Probably 2 deg. F or so contribution from the increase in CO2.
There is no reason to think that this pattern would not have occurred without global warming from the increase in CO2.
So take the same pattern without an extra 120 ppm of CO2 helping to trap long wave radiation and you get a couple degrees cooler, so it would have been 106 today instead of 108 in Portland.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71597
I have to show this graph again too.
If climate change is causing extreme highs like this to increase because of patterns like this..........there is absolutely nothing in the 60 years of record highs to show it.
Forget the models predicting it. The models have all been too hot and wrong.
We must stick with whats really happening, not with speculative theories or biased scientists.
No trend in record highs in the US the past 60 years as evidenced with the empirical data below. The highest year in the last 30 years was 2012. It also featured a major widespread drought in the Cornbelt(only one since 1988 in that location).
By no coincidence, we had a -PDO and La Nina that year too just like this past year. Not a coincidence but causation from completely natural weather/climate.
I know that alot of people state that we are seeing many more heat extremes but as I just showed, at least in the US thats not been the case.
We are also being told the temperature extremes are increasing but what's actually happening is that the temperature differential/meridional temp gradient is doing the opposite.........its weakening.
That's what happens when the warming is amplified in the higher latitudes and there is less warming in the middle and especially the lower latitudes(Phoenix appears to be an exception)
If the planet has warmed by 2 deg. F for instance in the last 100 years, the higher latitudes have warmed by as much as 5 deg. F and the lower latitudes by as little as 1 deg. F.
This has decreased the temperature difference from north to south by 3-4 degrees in some cases.
This is actually the physical reason for violent tornadoes to plunge by 50% over the last 50 years.
Mike,
Based on your latest posts about the drought, I modified my 2nd paragraph over at Don's thread to as follows:
"Do y’all think the AGW contribution to this heatwave is likely more than ~2-3F? Do you think that the widespread W US drought is a bigger contributor? I'm strongly suspecting it is based on the physics of air heating up more over drier soils due to their much lower specific heat levels. Would we be looking at a historic heatwave had there been no drought? I have a lot of doubt about that and also suspect that there wouldn't be as strong a ridge there without the drought. Also, note that the 3 big US heatwaves have all occurred in widespread drought regions as per the map below:
Whilst not anything close to being a climatologist, I cannot help but to scoff at the insanely irrational claims of AGW. Flouts all logical real science. Considering the football gridiron yard lines example, this minuscule’ leap’ of CO2, while being demonstrable as an airborne fertilizer, fails miserably to account for any provable climate change. And how about the absence of sunspot activity. Consider for a moment the comparison between the tonnage differential the oceanic mass and the greenhouse gasses, exclusive of the no.1—water vapor.
Not only do I shake my head when someone claims AGW, but I then question and discount any further statements made by such entity. There’s just too too much science and logic utterly making that claim to be anything but a chicken little straw man (not to mix metaphors or anything.) Last example—the ‘warming’ of the Antarctic ice sheets and subsequent fracturing off. Turns out to be seafloor cracks allowing hot vent water to do the ‘melting’. Chicken little doofi. Bah humbug.
Just my $.02.
Sounds good Larry.
CO2 is well mixed in the global atmosphere. So we are basically adding the exact same amount to the atmosphere everywhere around the planet.
However, as noted a few times in this thread, the affects are not uniformly imposed across the globe. The greenhouse gas affect from CO2 is something like 5% and from H2O 95%.
There are absorption wavelength bands based on vibrational physics for both H2O and CO2(as well as other gases).
https://wiki.anton-paar.com/en/infrared-spectrum-of-carbon-dioxide/
These have been accurately measured and well understood for many decades. They determine a gases ability to absorb and re emit radiation.
Since the amount of H2O in the atmosphere, dwarfs that of CO2 it dominates as a greenhouse gas. H2O is as much as 2%(and variable) and CO2 is just over .04%, so that is like 50 times more H2O. There is alot of overlap in their absorption bands.
But here is what happens.
In warm places with decent humidity and even more in the tropics, the bands of overlapping absorption for H2O/CO2 are mostly saturated and adding CO2 doesn't warm it much because of this.
In dry places, where these bands are not saturated by H2O, adding CO2 does increase shortwave radiation absorption and contributes to warming. Cold air cannot hold much H2O, so this means less SW radiation absorption. Adding CO2 in those places is much more efficient for greenhouse gas warming because the bands are not saturated by H2O.
We are seeing this exactly on the planet with the coldest places warming the most. This is confirmation of the greenhouse gas warming from CO2 in the real world based on the physics described above.
Also, the additional CO2 causes more absorption, similar to adding more H2O. Exact same affect. This is why NIGHTs are warming more than DAYs. The diurnal temp pattern is acting like a more humid air mass......buts it from the slightly extra CO2, not more H2O.
So the global climate models use thousands of equations to represent all of this in order to simulate the atmosphere for the next 100 year based on known physics and SPECULATED affects.
This is where they are messed up. Since CO2 is actually such a very small player vs H2O as a greenhouse gas, they use equations that amplify the warming, as much as triple by incorporating positive feedback from H2O warming, caused by the CO2 warming.
Some of this makes sense. If you warm the air from extra CO2, it can hold more moisture and this amplifies the greenhouse gas affect.
However, we've now been able to accurately measure the increase in warming from just the added CO2 with advanced technology and its only 50% of what the models are programmed with..........but they refuse to adjust the models......because the hotter models are too valuable as a political tool.
Proof of this is that as the authentic data the last 2 decades proves them TOO hot, they have been adjusted hotter in some cases and the hottest one, with implausible outcomes often gets used as the most likely scenario for decision making and reporting in the MSM.
Climate science is NOT about educating or honestly. Nobody understands what I just stated above, so it was ripe to use as a scientific field that could be hijacked. They even rewrote climate history to wipe out the Medieval Warm Period 1,000 years ago that 100+ previous studies found to have happened.
We should note the exact same thing just happened with our EPA as shown above and proven right here in real time............to totally diminish the MUCH, MUCH hotter Dust Bowl 1930's heat waves...........as of April 2021........it no longer happened.
From now on, everybody that goes to that link will be informed with fraudulent science that the heat waves of the last 2 decades are hotter than those of the 1930's because of global warming/climate change.
Mike,
Just like yourself, Don is a very classy guy as he again responded to me, this time with a detailed and well thought-out answer. Keep in mind when you read Don’s answer what I asked you on Friday as an edit to one of my posts:
“***Edit: Also, perhaps AGW/climate change, itself, has been a factor leading to the W US drought??”
So, I was wondering if the W US drought, itself, has been enhanced by climate change. You responded by telling me the drought, itself, was almost all due to La Niña:
“No, this is almost all weather from the natural La Niña.”
I posted my feeling to Don about La Niña being the main cause of the drought based on what you said here, but he replied about the very real possibility of some connection of climate change and the multi-year severe W US drought:
“AGW and the severe multi-year drought can't fully be disentangled. While internal variability leads to drought conditions, AGW increases the probability of such outcomes through shifting precipitation patterns and greater drying of soil from higher temperatures. How much is climate change contributing?
Detailed multi-model analysis, which is utilized during attribution studies, would provide a good answer. But a rough approximation is possible from the following approach:
(Probability of an event under the current climate - Probability of an event under the baseline climate) / Probability of an event under the current climate
This formula provides a good approximation, because climate science has concluded with very high confidence that most of the recent warming has resulted from growinganthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (actually > 100%, because a small decline in solar irradiance has led made a negative contribution).
I ran some numbers for Seattle. For the baseline, I used the June-August 1951-80 period (the GISS baseline, as the Seattle-Tacoma record only goes back to 1945). For the current climate, I used the 1991-20 base period.
Probabilities:
100-degree day: 1951-80: 0.035%; 1991-20: 0.078%
Actual: 1951-80: 0%; 1991-20: 0.07%
Then using the probabilities, I got: (.0078 - .0035)/0.0078 = approximately 55%. Climate change made such events 55% more likely
For 105-degree days, the climate change contribution was 61%
The actual probabilities could be somewhat higher, as climate change has made the kind of resonance events involved in this epic heat event more likely. @bluewaveposted a good paper on this topic earlier in the thread.”
Thanks stomper,
One can have dozens of related discussions on numerous elements to confirm what you are saying/thinking.........in fact, you can get them right here (-:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27864/
There is real greenhouse gas warming with absolute proven physics. Anybody that claims otherwise is to be avoided as a credible source.
But the authentic science shows pretty conclusively that its 50% of the amount that mainstream science is using for political, non scientific objectives.
Mike,
A pro-met just responded to what Don had just posted to me with an interesting take:
“I'm gonna add on just a bit to what Don said for this particular event. In this case, the incredibly strong Rex block that is baking BC and WA/OR had its origin in an unusually juiced episode of convection along the Meiyu/Baui front in E. Asia. Moisture transport for that event likely originated over the SW Pac and E Indian Ocean, both of which are running above normal over a very wide area (and abnormally high ocean heat content to boot), which very likely contributed to amp'ing the intensity of the event. The latent heat release from that event helped boost the N.Pac jet significantly, causing a big downstream rossby wave break and the big ridge/block. So in a way, there's even an entangling between enhanced and extreme rainfall events and this heatwave. It's just not the kind of thing that's inherently obvious until you start digging.”
Larry,
Adding to my last post is whether these changes from increasing CO2 having more affect by warming the coldest places, at the coldest times of year and at night is having a change on the synoptic meteorological/weather patterns?
Could this have caused the current mega upper level ridge to be much stronger?
My thoughts are.......not likely.
The dynamics for this synoptic weather pattern are born from numerous interactions between the Pacific ocean temperature profile, and that of the dried out land downstream as well as other items like a tropical system that spun up and possibly helped to amplify the affect downstream and of course the high angled sun and latitude which will always be a constant.
Where might elevated CO2 fit into amplifying, beyond speculating?
Maybe the tropical system would not be there? Very speculative and it might not be relevent to this pattern.
The main features are still ocean temperatures, land temperature/soil conditions and sunshine but looking at them from a big picture view............for many thousands of miles, especially upstream where teleconnections play a role. Something happening on the other side of the Pacific can ripple downstream and play a key role in amplification of this pattern on this side of the Pacific. In fact, it happens ALL THE TIME.
This is mostly independant of CO2 levels in the atmosphere and related to natural variation with chaotic randomness........which is likely what we are seeing right now.
I'm having a hard time trying to see what more CO2 in the atmosphere, would contribute to this mode outside of speculation and especially since objective data for the last 60 years show it NOT happening.
Yeah, you can find numerous guys like Michael Mann using biased science and subjectively programmed models(to protect their already declared settled science, reputations and grant money) that result in studies that supposedly confirm it...........but I look at the objective, empirical data/observations and we have decades of it that says otherwise.
I trust the data........not biased mainstream scientists that I can show are not applying objective authentic science. The biggest problem is that people like me with this message and studies that show it.........are censored.
You never read/hear about studies like those at this link:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
This is intentional. Just like the EPA changing to a different source for their updated climate history from the US that just wiped out the Dust Bowl heat waves.
Do we really think the ones doing it didn't notice the night and day, incredible difference?
This is what's going on everywhere in mainstream science and media. They are actually changing the past so it fits with the political agenda. .....not the science or facts.
I am the 100% opposite of a conspiracy theorist. I only, with ZERO exceptions believe crazy stuff when I have authentic facts to prove it.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68881/#69862
metmike: To try to hide the story, they took the data(1989) and the title off of it. Seriously, they did that and they could actually eliminate the story soon.
https://apnews.com/article/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0
Original, just before they censored the title:
PETER JAMES SPIELMANN June 29, 1989:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66441/#66479
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67004/
Don is a brilliant guy but his proof that climate change made the drought worse using models and statistics is exactly wrong based on the meteorology of the real world.
As I proved above from the real world, the Pacific temperature profile is the biggest determinant for droughts downstream in the US. La Nina's are cold water anomalies in the tropical Pacific and they correlate STRONGLY to droughts. I showed you my threads/posts over a year ago predicting this droughtone based entirely on the meteorology...........it not only happened but was predictable based on the long lived historical occurrences.
Climate change causes more El Nino's and warmer Pacific Ocean water. La Nina's are the opposite and buck the trend because they are caused by NATURAL cycles/elements, as well as the -PDO.
You cant blame something that is the 100% opposite of what climate change causes on climate change! Climate change causes warmer not colder water. Global temperatures have fallen, not increased in the last year because of the recent, cold water La Nina signature in the eastern tropical Pacific. The chances are extremely high(and I predicted it......just look at my thread from a year ago) that this current NATURAL, anti climate change(global warming) pattern is responsible for the enormous scale and intensity of the drought.
If you super impose 2 degrees of warming on top of the natural La Nina, then it will make the drought slightly worse but, by a wide margin that counts most, the drought itself would not exist if we were experiencing a climate change induced meteorological/synoptic pattern. We currently have an ANTI climate change(GLOBAL WARMING) meteorological pattern.
You can see that with its affect on global temperatures.......down since it started early last year:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70301/
Long lived observations for the last century also PROVE that El Nino's cause more rains downstream and protect much of the US from droughts. I'm guessing that Don is not a meteorologist or he doesn't want to believe this because it contradicts what he has already decided. Nothing new.
Our last 2 major Cornbelt droughts were in 2012 and 1988 from La Ninas. In between has been the least amount of drought in history for that region BECAUSE OF not in spite of global warming and more El Nino's and more of a +PDO regime.
I don't care what the computer models say..........this is a stone cold fact with conclusive empirical data to back it up...............for the United States.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
On the other persons mention of the tropical system, this could have been a factor........ I previously commented on that:
metmike: "The dynamics for this synoptic weather pattern are born from numerous interactions between the Pacific ocean temperature profile, and that of the dried out land downstream as well as other items like a tropical system that spun up and possibly helped to amplify the affect downstream and of course the high angled sun and latitude which will always be a constant.
Where might elevated CO2 fit into amplifying, beyond speculating?
Maybe the tropical system would not be there? Very speculative and it might not be relevant to this pattern."
Looking at 10AM PDT readings vs 24 hours ago:
Portland, Walla Walla, Pendleton, and Yakima are 6 F warmer.
Spokane area is 4-5 F warmer. SeaTac is 3 F warmer.
Keep in mind that June records were already obliterated in Portland, Seattle-Tac, and other locations yesterday!
One could also make a case that global warming/climate change is dampening out the La Nina's because of it's affect on Pacific Ocean water temperatures and make a case that this recent La Nina would have been even stronger if not for climate change, along with the drought and other impacts being even worse.
For sure the temperature pattern in the Pacific the past year+ is anti global warming and climate change could not have caused it.
Thanks, Mike. I may go back to them later with a portion of your latest post(s) about La Nina being more associated with GC than GW though I'm also trying not to overdo it.
Meanwhile, we see even more amazing history in the making today vs yesterday's already incredible day:
1 PM PDT vs 24 hours ago:
Portland 104 (+11)
SeaTac 96 (+4)
Pendleton 106 (+5)
Walla Walls 106 (+5)
Spokane 98 (+5)
Yakima 102 (+2)
Portland airport hit 111 in the last 30 minutes which surpasses yesterday and is the new all time hottest ever/record. I noted an EAST wind at 11/12mph. This is taking the already hot air to the east and downsloping it on the west side of the Cascades which is adding to the heat.
The hottest temperature in Oregon history was:
 Oregon | 117 °F / 47 °C | July 27, 1939 |
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_temperature_extremes
Portland NWS: https://www.weather.gov/pqr/
Seattle NWS: https://www.weather.gov/sew/
"Hot" off the press from Don Sutherland:
"Lytton, BC: 46.1C/115F. New national record for Canada".
That probably isn't yet to their high of the day, and it may get even hotter Mon and/or Tue there!
Thanks Larry!
1PM PDT vs 24 hours ago:
Portland 110 (+6)(warmed 5 last hour)
SeaTac 99 (+3) (cooled 3 last hour)
Pendleton 109 (+3)(warmed 4 last hour
Walla Walls 106 (0)(warmed 1 last hour)
Spokane 99 (+1)(warmed 1 last hour)
Yakima 103 (+1)(cooled 1 last hour)
----------------------------------------------------
2PM PDT vs 24 hours ago:
Portland 112 (+3)(warmed 2 last hr & already equaled all-time record high set yest)(107 old all-time as of 3 days ago)
SeaTac 103 (+5) (warmed 4 last hour; looking for a new all-time high here shortly)
Pendleton 109 (+2)(no change last hour)
Walla Walls 107 (-2)(warmed 1 last hour)
Spokane 101 (0)(warmed 2 last hour)
Yakima 105 (+1)(warmed 2 last hour)
Thanks Larry!
Current conditions at
Clear
115°F
| Humidity | 13% |
| Wind Speed | E 16 MPH |
That brisk wind is downsloping the already very hot air from the Cascades to the East and compressing air..........which heats it even more(the pressure increases from high altitudes to low altitudes.......(and that compaction, packs in more of everything.......including O2)
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2018/07/16/thermodynamics-101-compression-increases-temperature/
Portland NWS: https://www.weather.gov/pqr/
Seattle NWS: https://www.weather.gov/sew/
This nightmare in the West has a lesser reflection in the Northeast. Here, a few miles inland from Boston, it nicked 100 today. Second heatwave of June, moderately annoying in a place that didn't need A/C when I bought it in the 1990s.
Still not as hot as the residential real estate market around here, so a small house in an average neighborhood will buy us mucho land in N WV.
Thanks Patrick!
The higher the latitude/drier the air for any location, the more enhanced the CO2 warming is as explained near the top(which is why the coldest places are warming the most).
What's actually making the heat in Boston feel worse recently has been the increase in humidity.
Oh, well thanks!
And I just thought 100 degrees was hot
As a wee tad, I lived in SW Oklahoma.
Usually over 100, but always AC, and the night air was cool and dry
(Family got better at using the cycle to keep things OK with less energy)
Now, 2 more days I can go into the office to cool down
Then I'm retired and can hide in the basement until this is over
https://twitter.com/mateosfo/status/1409664424000950277
It's hard to imagine what people did in the 1930's during our nations hottest decade..........WITHOUT wonderful air conditioning.
Oh, wait a second we know from history............many of them died.
It was like having weather similar to the Northwest weather..........lasting for months in the nations breadbasket and in a massive geographic area many times larger than with this heat wave.........then, the next year.........returning for months!
There were actually 3 especially/really bad periods. 1936 was part of one of them.
What people don't realize is that global warming and the additional El NIno's/warmer tropical Pacific water that they absolutely cause based on the principles of authentic meteorology PROTECT us from extremes like that.
The current ENSO state has been in a La Nina mode(cooler tropical Pacific water anomalies and modest global cooling) since the start of last year(2020) and is mostly responsible for the current drought and adding greatly to the extreme nature of the current WEATHER pattern. This goes with our current -PDO.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dust-bowl-heat-wave-climate-change-twice-as-likely-study-says/
This story covers the 1930's nicely but are using a study from scientists that absolutely do NOT know what they are talking about.
With 100% certainty, more El Nino's from global warming/climate change DECREASE the chances of another Dust Bowl and the weather that was associated with it.
It's why the Cornbelt has set a record.............for LEAST drought in history. Only 2 of them the last 35 year, when the historical average was more like 6.
Those droughts occurred in 2012 and 1988.............during La Nina's.....which is what we have right now and is also why we've had the slight global cooling the past 18 months.
I only intended to show the link to this story because it described the devastating weather of the 1930's so well(when there was no AC) but have to correct their bad science(source) with authentic science.
You can scroll up from the top to see this objective, irrefutable evidence which will get zero weighting from everybody in discussions about this current MEGA impressive/off the charts, historical heat wave in the Northwest.
There they go again, doctoring data to make it less hot in the past in order to present data that shows it much hotter in the present!
This time its Wikepedia.
They just changed the all time record high in Oregon to this:
| Oregon | 118 °F (48 °C) | June 29, 2021 § | Hermiston |
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_temperature_extremes
Busted em because this was the previous hottest ever in Oregon and had been listed on the same page by Wikepedia for the last 2 decades but was just replaced with the 118 Deg F above from this recent heat wave.
Last time that I checked, 119 deg. F is hotter than 118 deg. F.
In 1898 there was no air conditioning and it was also before atmospheric CO2 went up by over 100 parts per million.
Earlier, I discovered yet another recent data manipulation trick by the EPA to make it appear as if recent heat waves were worse than the 1930's which is off the charts laughable for anybody with the actual data:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71521
Reposted from The Cliff Mass Weather Blog
During the past week, the Pacific Northwest experienced the most severe heat event of the past century.
The Evidence is Overwhelming
As I described above, the natural origins of the “black swan” heatwave we experienced last week can be demonstrated in a number of independent ways, from examining the origins and frequency of the ingredients (such as the high-amplitude ridge of high pressure), considering the statistics of warm temperatures (the lack of trend in extreme high-temperature days), and through high-resolution climate modeling.
The evidence for a predominantly natural origin of the high temperatures records of last week is compelling, with global warming marginally increasing the peak temperatures by perhaps a few degrees. Without global warming, we still would have experienced the most severe heatwave of the past century.
Politicization and Miscommunication of Science
The inaccurate information being distributed about the origins of this heatwave is very disturbing.
Some of this is being done out of ignorance or laziness, but a few individuals are deceiving the public deliberately. Science journalism is only a shadow of what it was decades past, and a number of scientists now see social activism as more important than the determination and communication of truth.
Our nation has made costly mistakes when the truth was twisted for political reasons, such as for the Iraq war, when our nation spent trillions of dollars and initiated a war that killed hundreds of thousands of people based on misinformation about non-existent weapons of mass destruction.
We are now making similar mistakes with global warming, with politically inspired misinformation slowing realistic and life-saving steps, such as thinning our forests and restoring natural fire, or proceeding rapidly with nuclear energy. Hyping global warming puts unrealistic and unnecessary fear into the hearts of our fellow citizens. Unconscionable. Global warming is an issue we can deal with, but only if truthful, factual, and science-based information is provided to decision-makers and the nation’s citizens.
I have spent my life trying to understand the weather and climate of our region and it is so frustrating that the media (e.g., KNKX public radio, the Seattle Times, the Seattle Stranger) and local politicians (such as our governor) have placed such a low priority on providing accurate information regarding climate change and other environmental challenges.
They have put political agendas ahead of truth and we are all the worst for it.
What's interesting, is that somebody took the hottest temperatures from this heat wave in Oregon and Washington State, that did NOT break the hottest ever temperatures for those states and they made them the hottest ever anyway last week.
However, that has just been fixed because the old records for hottest ever in OR still stands:
| Oregon | 119 °F (48 °C) | August 10, 1898 | Pendleton |
And for Washington State, the old record for hottest ever still stands:
Washington | 118 °F (48 °C) | August 5, 1961 | Ice Harbor Dam |
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_temperature_extremes
EPA caught red handed............again, fiddling with charts to mislead people about heat waves(doctoring the 1930's heat wave data to hide it).
Scroll down at the top like below.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/#71522
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-waves
