KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, June 29, 2021
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
9:00 AM ET. April U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +12.8%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.2%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.3%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.2%)
10:00 AM ET. June Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 117.2)
Expectation Idx (previous 99.1)
Present Situation Idx (previous 144.3)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 34,849.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 34,003.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 34,849.32. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 35,091.56. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34,003.45. Second support is the June 18th low crossing at 33,271.93.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday as it extends the year's rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,002.42 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14,495.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,201.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,002.42.
The September S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Monday as it posted a new high for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally upside targets are hard to project. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4126.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at 4020.00. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4279.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4126.75. Second support is May's low crossing at 4020.00.
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September T-bonds closed up 1-10/32's at 160-02.
September T-bonds closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Monday high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally of May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 163-02. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-00.
September T-notes closed up 115-pts. at 132.075.
September T-notes closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163 is the next upside target. Closes below June's low crossing at 131.140 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 11th high crossing at 133.065. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163. First support is June's low crossing at 131.140. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 130.315.
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August crude oil posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $70.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $74.45. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $70.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $66.84.
August heating oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $203.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $219.19. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $203.82. Second support is May's low crossing at $194.90.
August unleaded gas closed lower on Monday following last-Friday's key reversal down as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1254 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $2.2937. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1254. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.0200.
August Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday and posted a new high for the year as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.253 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.653. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.253. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.099.
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The September Dollar closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing 90.91 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.46. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing 91.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.91.
The September Euro closed slightly lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 118.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.68. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.80. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 118.83. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 118.17.
The September British Pound closed unchanged on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this month's decline, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4040 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4034. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4040. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.3788. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.3678.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Monday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0744 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1055 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0948. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1055. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0854. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0774.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 79.62 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.86. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.92. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 80.08. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 79.62.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0091533 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090915. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091533. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.090050. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.089205.
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August gold close higher on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's decline, the April 29th low crossing at $1756.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1842.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1793.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1842.50. First support is the April 29th low crossing at $1756.80. Second support is the April 13th low crossing at $1725.50.
July silver closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the April 13th low crossing at 24.725 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.165 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26.366. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.165. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 25.580. Second support is the April-13th low crossing at 24.725.
July copper closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Monday's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the April 12th low crossing at 399.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 440.39 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 440.39. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 448.56. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 408.80. Second support is the April 12th low crossing at 399.50.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up $0.28-cents at $5.47 1/4.
December corn closed sharply higher on Monday as it rebounded off last-Thursday's low. Weekend rains failed to elevate dry conditions across large portions of the western corn belt. Additional support came from weather news out of southern Brazil that are calling for the potential of frost in the region. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.70 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.70 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $6.28 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $4.77.
September wheat closed up $0.10 3/4-cents at $6.51 1/2.
September wheat closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.16 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.72 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.72 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.91 3/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.37 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.16 1/2.
September Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.17 3/4-cents at $6.26 3/4.
September Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.27 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $5.56 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.27 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.53 3/4. First support is June's low crossing at $5.92 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.56 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.26-cents at $8.34.
September Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $8.45 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $8.45 3/4. Second resistance is the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.54. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.75 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down $0.42 3/4-cents at $13.12 1/2.
November soybeans closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $13.29 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30 is the next downside target.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $13.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.68 1/4. First support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2. Second support is the the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30.
December soybean meal closed up $4.40 to $359.30.
December soybean meal closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $380.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $367.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $380.30. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $347.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50.
December soybean oil closed down 279-pts. at 60.03.
December soybean oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 47.44 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.99. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 67.06. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 52.08. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 47.44.
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August hogs closed up $3.00 at $102.78.
August hogs gapped closed limit up on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If August extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $104.96 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $104.96. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.57. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $96.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71.
August cattle closed down $1.20 at $121.60.
August cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.57 would signal that a top has been posted. If August renews this month's rally, the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $125.78. Second resistance is the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.57.
August Feeder cattle closed down $3.20 at $156.35.
August Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews this month's rally, April's high crossing at $162.40. Closes below the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $160.15. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90. Second support is the June 10th low crossing at $146.75.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed sharply higher on Monday as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Monday's low, June's high crossing at 16.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
September cocoa closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 22.54 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.36 signals that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Monday's low would renew the decline off June's high and open the door for a possible test of April's low crossing at 14.68 later this summer.
December cotton closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 89.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 17th low crossing at 83.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.