This is the NYT number from yesterday.  122K.

This would be the highest since early February of this year and over 10 times higher than the average from mid June, just over a month ago.

The huge concern is the steepness of the curve going up....possibly a parabolic trajectory but not enough

data points yet to know.

It took many months last Fall to  get to our peak, even with an increasing rate near then end. This current rate of increase

is multiple times faster.........we could exceed the previous record easily next week if this continues.

There is a concern with the possible ramifications for them tightening up everything again.

After following it since the start of 2020, I can say that there will be a lag in time of the tightening AFTER we see the alarming numbers. For instance, the reactions that we are seeing now by the Federal Government were not from Friday's much higher COVID numbers. They were based on numbers from at least several days earlier.

The right is outraged already at the previous restrictions and increasing mask requirements again.

They will be going bonkers when things tighten up again........if they do. Biden is going to be in the line of fire for it from the right.

Alot of commodity markets took an unexplained nose dive on Friday based on no fundamental reason.

The rising COVID numbers might be the reason.

I think most people believe strongly that the economy will NOT shut down again and it will never get as bad as it was.

However, if the daily numbers suddenly spike to 300,000+, which would break the old daily record with no signs of a slow down, we could see some short term market crashes..........and next week might be the most vulnerable for that.

ABC news just reported 86,000 new cases yesterday.

But look at this story below. Holy cow, that's just for 1 state!

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article253168148.html

Florida sets a record with 21,683 new COVID-19 cases reported Saturday, the CDC says www.miamiherald.com

I just want to reiterate that 90% of vaccinated people and those that had COVID already will avoid the most severe symptoms that unvaccinated people will see, including the most severe reaction of all DEATH.

With 164 million people being fully vaccinated, just over 50%  and 35 million had COVID, just over 10%,  this is over 60% of the population with solid protection to lessen the severe reactions in those people. Some have had 1 shot with decent but not the best protection.

Many of those fully vaccinated are older and immune compromised people, those that are the most vulnerable, so the % of the population for the much more contagious Delta COVID to cause severe reactions in is going to be greatly reduced with this new surge that is coming on like gang busters compared to the previous peak.

I just found a stat that is extremely reassuring with regards to that. 65 and up have around 90% that received at least 1 shot.  

That means that those 90% will have roughly a 90% reduced number of extreme symptoms and deaths compared to the same people in the absence of being vaccinated. Some of that population also had COVID already too.

Thank God we got so many smart enough to get vaccinated in the last 7+ months or this would have potentially been apocalyptic!!!

However, it may get pretty bad in August!

Thank God so many smart older people are vaccinated!!! This is going to help a great deal to lessen the loss of life and severe sicknesses with this new wave.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker

Statistics show the stark risks of not getting vaccinated against COVID-19

COVID-19 has become a "pandemic of the unvaccinated."

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/statistics-show-risks-vaccinated-covid-19/story?id=78845627

metmike: Since 90% of people 65 and older are vaccinated, of course those will be the majority of new infections at that age..........of course they will. The vaccine is not designed to make a person impervious to COVID. The protection especially comes after they are infected. Their immune systems are armed with antibodies to beat COVID AFTER they are infected. This is what HELPS to keep them from getting severe infections and dying..........at the much, much higher rate of the ones who are not vaccinated get severe infections and die.

Be smart, get vaccinated ASAP if you're not vaccinated. Wear an N95 mask, the mask that actually protects you!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/72775/#72921

I just watched the news, and there was a mention of numbers,  but barely.

Last year they were screaming about it.

I mean,   who coulda seen a difference in coverage coming,  right?   RIGHT?

Anyway,  most of us are not too concerned about a disease with a 98++% survival rate.

As long as the democrats don't start closing down the businesses that don't contribute enough,  the economy should be OK. 

We had a nice head and shoulders pattern on the daily COVID cases chart.  But,  looks like we just pushed above the resistance at the neckline.  ;(  Not good.

<Anyway,  most of us are not too concerned about a disease with a 98++% survival rate.?>

True.  Although our concern does tend to go up if we become sick.

Reminds me of the old joke about the difference between a recession and a depression.  A recession is when your neighbor loses his job...a depression is when you lose yours.

 Most of us have multiple loved ones (relatives and friends) who are at a much higher risk than that for a young healthy person. For example, my disabled brother with multiple health issues, and my stepmom, among others. Need I go on? It is a lot more than just worrying about "me".

Buck,

COVID is not something that will act like a commodity or stock. 

Like larry said, a personal choice to not get vaccinated is making a choice for other people exposed to you.  You may be healthy........others are not so lucky.

If you live by yourself and never go outside ........then that's different.

Where do you think all thse people got their COVID from.........the Invisible COVID Devil?

They all got it from other people with COVID!

Everybody that dies from COVID........will get it from somebody else.

I agree that we could see some wild swings but I think they will be muted compared to a year ago.  We know the vaccine works.  Over half of America is vaccinated and by account from some news stories vaccinations are picking up again.  I think people are ready to move on and if people end up on ventilators now, that’s on them.  There is a percentage of people that will never get the vaccine and that’s okay, but the rest of us can’t sit around covering up and hoping that declining portion of the population doesn’t get sick.

Dammit.  This is a non issue.   Survival rate is exceptonal. Protect the vulnerable.  They are clearly identified.  Leave the rest of us alone dammit.

Stop demanding that the government take control of our lives.

Agree that it will be extremely muted IF it even happens.

I just think the market is vulnerable if the cases continued to rapidly grow to something like 250,000/day.

 Even is there were some knee jerk reactions, one can guess that they will be short lived because its almost inconceivable that we would be anything close to as bad as last year.

Too many people vaccinated and 10% of the population has had COVID and 90% of the most vulnerable are vaccinated with 2 shots. This means they are 90% better protected from a severe reaction/death. I would also be shocked if we had anything close to the shutdowns that killed the energy markets. 

But this continues to be uncharted territory.............with much higher uncertainty compared to NON COVID times.

Markets are pretty calm right now...........hopefully staying that way and hopefully, we hit a peak in new Delta COVID cases that is not much higher than this in early August, followed by a drop off.

Thank God we have so many people vaccinated...........especially the vulnerable since the Delta COVID is MUCH more contagious. However, being vaccinated only gives your immune system more antibodies to fight COVID from the get go, after you are infected.

 If your immune system or health is severely compromised.........or you are old and Father Time took away the effectiveness of  everything in your body..........the vaccine  still might not be enough in some cases to beat COVID.

Mike said:

"Too many people vaccinated and 10% of the population has had COVID and 90% of the most vulnerable are vaccinated with 2 shots."

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Mike,

 Isn't it close to 1/3 that have been infected?

 CDC estimates 1 in 3 Americans have been infected with COVID-19 (thedenverchannel.com)

Thanks Larry!

I was using the statistic of those that tested positive for COVID. Your stat includes many additional infections never getting the medical test .............an ESTIMATED total number. I think your number and source are very reasonable.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

United States

Coronavirus Cases:

35,768,924

Deaths:

629,380

Recovered:

29,673,290

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73031/#73041

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73073/#73083

"However, fears over the spread of the delta variant affecting future oil demand continues to limit near-term the upside potential.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading."