If there is a crude build on Tuesday night from the API, and then confirmed from the EIA, probably not.
Wonderful chart Mike....thanks!
Much uncertainty, especially tied to the spread of COVID.
So the predictive value of technicals and charts, which usually tells us what "the composite man" the collective market composed of all traders has less value.
If you had a crystal ball that showed that COVID would be surging around the world this month, or getting much better, you could make a million bucks in crude and other markets.
One can guess, looking at that chart that a close below $65, technically would be a strong bearish signal and maybe set sights on the $60-$61 area.
But it could be a bear fake out and a close above that afterwards would be a pretty bullish signal.
We've come a looooong way on the upside in the last year.
What do you guys think?
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-slumps-china-travel-curbs-strong-us-dollar-2021-08-09/
LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell by almost 3% on Monday, extending last week's steep losses on the back of a rising U.S. dollar and concerns that new coronavirus-related restrictions in Asia, especially China, could slow a global recovery in fuel demand.
A United Nations panel's dire warning on climate change also added to the gloomy mood after fires in Greece have razed homes and forests and parts of Europe suffered deadly floods last month. read more
Biden and OPEC
Started by Jim_M - Aug. 11, 2021, 10:39 a.m.
Oil futures remained under pressure Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude inventories fell by 400,000 barrels last week. The EIA also said gasoline inventories dropped by 1.4 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose 1.8 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts, on average, had looked for the EIA to show crude stocks down 600,000 barrels, while gasoline stocks were expected to fall 2.4 million barrels and distillates were seen down 600,000 barrels. The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday said U.S. crude-oil inventories fell 816,000 barrels last week, according to sources. Oil was under pressure Wednesday after the Biden administration pressed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to boost output and called on the Federal Trade Commission to investigate whether illegal practices were contributing to a rise in gasoline prices.
On that last item.........one would hope they would finally address the widespread price gouging that takes place across the country when regional distributors jack up prices by as much as double digits above their fair value, sometimes on news, sometimes related to holidays, sometimes for other reasons because they are greedy and nobody is stopping them and unrelated to their cost or the fundamentals but always to pad their profits.
Crude charts below. I lost the link.
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Unleaded Gasoline Price Charts:
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Latest Release Aug 11, 2021 Actual-0.447M Forecast-1.271M Previous3.626M
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75
| Release Date | Time | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2021 | 10:30 | -0.447M | -1.271M | 3.626M | |
| Aug 04, 2021 | 10:30 | 3.626M | -3.102M | -4.089M | |
| Jul 28, 2021 | 10:30 | -4.089M | -2.928M | 2.108M | |
| Jul 21, 2021 | 10:30 | 2.108M | -4.466M | -7.897M | |
| Jul 14, 2021 | 10:30 | -7.897M | -4.359M | -6.866M | |
| Jul 08, 2021 | 11:00 | -6.866M | -4.033M | -6.718M |
| Weekly US ending stocks of crude oil. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRSTUS1&f=W Weekly ending stocks for unleaded gasoline. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGTSTUS1&f=W Weekly US ending stocks for distillate fuel oil(heating oil-especially used in the Northeast). https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W |
I imagine there is a tug of war going on between fears of covid killing demand opposite of those that think there won't be any lock downs and that demand will continue to increase.
While I am on the sidelines, I feel I am in camp number 2. If the US locked down again, it would kill any chance of Biden winning on 2024...if he is still alive or runs. If there aren't some builds in storage in the coming weeks, we could see a significant rebound, even if it is the end of the driving season.
