Thanks much Larry!

Any thoughts of your own here?

Previous thread:

                NG 6/5/22+                        

                62 responses |                         

                                            Started by WxFollower - June 5, 2022, 8:16 p.m

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/85343/

7 day temps ending last Friday for this next EIA report. Mild in the middle to the Midatlantic. Hot in the West.

You're welcome, Mike.

Here are my thoughts fwiw, which are based on reflections on my many years of trading NG:

1. I traded NG for gains in 72% of years with the cumulative gains in those years 3 times as high as the cumulaive losses in the 28% loss years. So, overall success for sure and making me feel very good about my decision to trade it in retrospect. My longterm broker had even told me that I was by far the best at trading NG of all of his clients.

2. My last solid year in NG was in 2019, which happened to be my best by a good margin.

3. On my last trading day early this year, my longs were stopped out for no good reason from a wx perspective at THE low of the day early in the day. From that moment on, it rose very sharply: closed nearly 40 cents higher that day, 34 cents higher the next day, and 75 cents higher two days later!!

4. Since then, I've been reading market recaps like these in 2022:

02/14 01:48p CST  DJ Natural Gas Ends 6.4% Higher on Russia Jitters -- Market 
 Talk 
 
     1448 ET - Natural gas prices jump 6.4% to finish at $4.195/mmBtu, the 
 highest closing price in nearly a month, as the market gets swept up in 
 frenzied buying of energy commodities due to the growing belief that Russia 
 will soon invade Ukraine.

02/16 07:43a CST  DJ Natural Gas Adds to Big Gains, Up 6% -- Market Talk 
 
     0843 ET - Natural gas prices climb 6% to $4.566/mmBtu and are 16% higher 
 so far this week after dropping by 14% last week. The huge price swings are 
 becoming commonplace in natural gas markets in recent months, partly due to 
 Europe's energy crisis over the winter, and more recently due to concerns that 
 Russia may stop gas shipments to Europe if a military conflict starts with 
 Ukraine.

06/14 08:43a CST  *DJ Natural Gas Falls 13% to $7.460 After Freeport LNG Says 
 Full Restart Not Likely Until Late 2022

06/17/22 01:55p CST  DJ Natural Gas Prices Fall Sharply On LNG, Broader-Market -- 
 Market Talk 
 
     1455 ET - Natural gas prices fall 7% to $6.944/mmBtu, finishing below $7 
 for the first time since late April. The move also leaves the market with a 
 large, 22% weekly decline, a drop fueled by an announced, extended outage at 
 Freeport LNG, an important LNG production and export facility in Texas that was 
 forced to shut due to an explosion and fire.

06/23 12:23p CST  DJ Natural Gas Prices Drop 10% as Inventories Rise -- Market 
Talk 

13:23 ET - Natural-gas prices are falling sharply after a weekly EIA report 
showed a larger-than-forecast increase in gas inventories, which could suggest 
the shutdown of an important LNG plant in Texas is hurting demand more than 
analysts were expecting. The front-month July contract was recently down as 
much as 10% at a session-low $6.175/mmBtu, and if those prices hold it would be 
the lowest closing price since April 6. Prices have fallen some 33% since 
Freeport LNG announced a fire and shutdown of its liquefaction plant two weeks 
ago. The EIA says gas inventories rose by 74B cubic feet last week, which tops 
forecasts in a WSJ survey for a 66-bcf increase. 

06/30 01:55p CST  DJ Natural Gas Posts Biggest Decline Since 2003 -- Market Talk 

1454 ET - Natural gas prices plunge 16.53% to finish at $5.424/mmBtu, 
marking the biggest one-day percentage decline since Feb. 27, 2003 as it just 
barely out-declines a Nov. 15, 2018 drop of 16.52%. The reason for the decline 
is the Federal government's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety 
Administration issued preliminary findings on its investigation into the 
Freeport LNG plant in Texas that had a fire June 8 and has been shut since. 

07/01 07:19a CST  DJ Volatile Natural Gas Prices Jump 8% After 16% Drop -- 
Market Talk 

5. These stories further show me that my decision to lock in my still overall solid net gains and not risk giving back any more than I had in 2021 and early 2022 was a sound one. Due to NG prices no longer being as dominated by US wx as it had been for decades prior thanks largely to a sharp increase in LNG exports and also somewhat due to unexplained mainly short term moves (what I consider manipulation), I feel better than ever about my decision. I fully realize that US wx is still a major factor in prices and that that will likely be the case especially in winter. On any single day, it can dominate. However, it is no longer dominating with the reliability it used to have. That in combo with my poor performance in 2021 through early 2022 along with only a small NG gain in 2020 thanks to COVID, which really screwed up what would otherwise have been a strong NG year (though it was my best year by far with softs), has told me to avoid the stress by staying away while still being able to reflect back on an overall solid performance.

6. Mike, I know your intentions are very good. But in case you're thinking about it, I'd prefer you not make this a post of the week.

Thanks very much Larry, I had not thought about it but it would have made a great post of the week but TOTALLY understand it being a very personal story that you don't want permanently carved into a library archive for everybody to see every time they go to that link. 

I greatly appreciate you sharing that too because it seriously helps me with my own discernment in natural gas trading and confirms many of my own thoughts and frustrations recently.

I'm still trading it but it feels like I'm just gambling and have no rational profit/loss strategy that connects to any successful trading strategies in the past.

My thoughts are to just try to jump in early on  a position overnight based on a big change in CDD's, then put in a stop to not lose money on the position, in case crazy news like you displayed hits. Then move the stop up if the position goes in the right direction.

Positional trading based on weather is almost impossible........even without crazy news.

Trading algorithms often trigger strong knee jerk spikes against the direction that market should go from weather and are clearly designed to take out stop loss orders from people trading things like weather............as you noted in one of your great examples.

I've had almost every single great weather call on natural gas end that way this year.

Stopped out with a spike, only to have the market then moves strongly in my directions.

From 1992, when I started with 2K to 2011, when I had all my money vanish (6 figures) on Oct 31st, at MF Global I NEVER used stops. If I was right about the weather, they were not needed. If the weather started to change.............I just got out before the market  had a chance to take me out.

In 2002/3 I emailed almost daily with Greenman and local from the forum and spoke to Greenman on the phone numerous times(he always called me)

I shared all my trades. Greenman said that I was the best weather trader in the world! 

In July 2002, I made $200,000 trading over 5,000 contracts(after paying 100,000 just in commissions). Lind Waldock was scared s as hell of my trading because I traded in 100 and 200 lots and sometimes 300 lots with corn and never used a stop.

They made a special rule just for me.

Anything over 100 contracts, in beans and 200 lots in corn, they assessed DOUBLE the margin just for me.

They also assigned a phone number, mainly for me and called it the "high rollers hotline". That was nice. I got fills back fast. Electronics is much better but back in those days, fills, especially on the open could take 10 minutes+ to come back. 

I appealed the higher margins but to no avail and I had enough equity that it didn't matter anyways, even though I got pretty close to my limits sometimes. 

I had some decent years shortly after 2011(by other peoples standards), doubling the account but it was so tiny that when I took money out to pay bills, it drained it back down. 

I would call my natural gas trading just a fun hobby in recent years.

I also trade grains and those have also been challenging. 

Are you done with trading coffee and cotton, or just ng?

Hey Mike,

 You're welcome. I'm not trading any commodities right now.

August Natural Gas Futures Flounder as Forecasts Call for Easing Heat; Cash Prices Climb

metmike: Yep, less heat in the forecast compared to late last week. Been getting cooler every day since then.

From last Thursday:

  https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending June 24, 2022   |  Released: June 30, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 7, 2022 

                                                                                                                                                                                                         +82 BCF Bearish!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,251 Bcf as of Friday, June 24, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 82 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 296 Bcf less than last year at this time and 322 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,573 Bcf. At 2,251 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/28/the-best-mislaid-plans-of-mice-and-men-often-go-awry-biden-oil-edition/

Most of the Freeport LNG shipments this year were going to Europe:

The sudden ~2 Bcf/d glut in domestic supply caused US natural gas prices to retreat and European LNG prices to skyrocket again.  

The Freeport facility accounts for roughly 20% of U.S. LNG processing capacity, drawing 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas from U.S. shale producers.

A full restart of the facility will not happen until late this year, the company said this week. The outage sent U.S. gas futures down 18% from the price a day before the fire, while European gas prices have surged more than 60%, with an additional boost from less gas on Russian pipelines. r

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4160158-natural-gas-seasonal-play-sets-up-for-springtime-option-sellers

Natural Gas Futures Climb Early Amid Production Decline, Warmer Forecast Trends

metmike: Models were HOTTER overnight. The direction of crude appears to be having a strong impact on the direction of NG.

Despite Production Drop and Prevailing Heat, Natural Gas Futures Fail to Find New Footing

metmike: July is usually a bad month for ng bulls and the forecast was LESS hot too.

Latest Release   Jul 07, 2022   Actual60B   Forecast74B  Previous82B

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

     https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

+60 BCF VERY BULLISH!

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,311 Bcf as of Friday, July 1, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 60 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 261 Bcf less than last year at this time and 322 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,633 Bcf. At 2,311 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Natural Gas Futures Surge Above $6 after EIA Storage Data Casts Doubt on Supply Picture

 In the third weekly surprise in a row, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 60 Bcf injection into natural gas storage for the week ending July 1. Unlike the previous two weeks, though, the latest EIA data was a hugely bearish whammy. The 60 Bcf injection was about 15 Bcf lighter than estimates ahead…

metmike: All models were HOTTER overnight and we were sharply higher BEFORE the extremely bullish EIA report spiked us up another +$4,000/contract in a flash. 

10:29am: I take the back. Only the European Ensemble was hotter by + 2 CDD. The GFS was actually cooler overnight.

 Today's EIA was clearly bullish vs recent weeks imho. It was based on the same # of CDDs as two weeks ago, which then yielded a +74 EIA. Also, todays report was based on only 8 more CDD vs last week's EIA and yet today's EIA was a whopping 22 bcf lower. So, bullish vs last 2 weeks. Also, because the report for the week ending 5/20/22 was revised from +80 to +87, that week lost most of its bullishness meaning today's report was the first solidly bullish report of this injection season.

 Today's report was a whopping 16 bcf to the bullish vs the WSJ mean poll. That is the most bullish vs that survey since the late December holidays and is the most bullish no holiday week since the 16 bcf bullish miss for the week ending 10/8/21.

Thanks Larry.  That was a shocker.

Natural Gas Futures Fly Higher After Storage Report Raises Fresh Supply Questions

Natural Gas Futures Just Shy of Even Early Friday as Analysts Mull EIA Surprise

   metmike: I'm very unsure of where we go. Uncertainty about the economy. Crude prices, supply dynamics and amount of heat in the forecast, as well as very negative seasons. NG in recent years can have massive spikes up or down unrelated to the weather and you never know when one of them is coming.

Mike said:

 "NG in recent years can have massive spikes up or down unrelated to the weather and you never know when one of them is coming."

--------------------------

 Though there are also other factors, this by itself is enough to be a deal breaker for me. I'll probably just stick to posting occasional analyses at most when I have some free time, which has been more limited recently, mainly related to the EIA reports. At least doing that can't lose me money.

Thanks Larry!

Another key element is that when we have this heat ridge moving into the Plains/WCB later this month, there won't be much wind on the big wind turbine farms to generate electricity.

This could have been why the injection yesterday was so low/bullish...........not much wind!

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/mapping-u-s-wind-electricity-generation-by-state/

Data from Feb 2020-Feb 2021
Source: EIA

               metmike: That's actually a massive flaw with wind power. During heat waves, when you need to generate massive amounts of electricity for air conditioning, the weather feature that causes the heat waves is a heat dome that kills the wind. So the wind turbines will produce the LEAST amount of electricity during the highest weather demand periods of Summer.

NG just filled the fairly large sized gap from earlier after both the GFS and Euro were quite a bit Less hot at 0z.

Strong Late July Heat, Supply Concerns Send Natural Gas Futures Higher

Metmike: It's really not that much more hot than Friday but the market wants to trade it more today. In fact, the guidance was all LESS hot overnight across the board, backing up the heat dome to the west but with the bullish shocker EIA report last Thursday has changed the mentality.

ALSO, possibly huge, there will not be much wind in the areas that don't have many people but have many of the wind turbine farms.  Less unreliable wind= less energy for electricity = more demand for ng.

It likely was part of the reason for the  bullish EIA shocker last Thursday.

Scorching Heat, Supply Threats Propel Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas prices spiked Monday alongside soaring temperatures and potential supply risks. The August Nymex gas futures contract jumped 39.2 cents day/day and settled at $6.426/MMBtu. September climbed 35.2 cents to $6.319. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. gained 73.0 cents to $6.785 amid widespread highs in the 90s and 100s to start the 

week. More…

metmike: Here's all the weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/natural-gas-futures-rally-snapped-despite-production-drop-sweltering-heat/

At A Glance:

• Output declines in Northeast, Permian
• Stifling heat persists across country
• Cash prices continue to advance  

A day earlier, the prompt month mounted a 39.2-cent rally. 

NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. on Tuesday ticked up further, coming off a 73.0-cent surge Monday. The average advanced 3.5 cents to $6.820. 

Cash prices and futures early in the day were fueled by what AccuWeather described as a dangerous heat dome that spanned much of the Lower 48, delivering highs in the 90s and 100s.

 Additionally, U.S. production estimates Tuesday showed a 2.8 Bcf/d decline day/day, down to around 93 Bcf/d on lower supply flowing out of the Northeast and the New Mexico portion of the Permian Basin, Wood Mackenzie Laura Munder said.               

That was notably below the recent highs around 96 Bcf, keeping production far from the 97 Bcf/d level that many analysts had anticipated the market to reach this summer.

 In the Northeast, declines totaling roughly 1.3 Bcf/d were spread across Ohio and Pennsylvania, Munder said. Permian New Mexico output, meanwhile, was off around 1 Bcf/d. 

Munder attributed the declines to various pipeline maintenance or operational events in these regions. 

The output decline followed other recent news of supply threats. Energy Transfer LP shut in 0.2 Bcf/d of capacity on the Old Ocean Pipeline system after a fire last Thursday, while officials on Saturday reported a fire at a Oneok Inc. natural gas liquids processing plant in Oklahoma.

Futures flew higher Monday and early Tuesday on sentiment that hits to supplies could offset the outage of the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas. That early June development forced the Freeport facility offline through at least the early fall. This freed up about 2.0 Bcf/d of gas once designed for export to be used domestically, easing supply concerns that had fueled a massive spring rally.

However, exceptionally intense heat so far this summer, coupled with relatively light production, put “upside pressure” on prices early this week, EBW Analytics Group noted. In Texas on Tuesday, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) forecast a new peak load record, EBW added.

Continued strong global demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas so far in July added further bullish sentiment to start the week. NGI data show export volumes hovering above 11 Bcf/d this month – effectively keeping LNG facilities operating at maximum capacity. This excluded Freeport, which when fully operational accounts for 17% of U.S. LNG export capacity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency said U.S. dry natural gas production in its forecast averages 96.2 Bcf/d in 2022, up 2.7 Bcf/d from 2021, boosted by gains in the back half of the year. EIA forecast average production would approach 100 Bcf/d in 2023. 

What’s more, Wood Mackenzie projected that production could rebound as soon as this week as several short-term maintenance projects culminate.

 With strong production potential still viable, some traders determined the early-week rally was overcooked and took profits, curbing momentum and sending futures into the red Tuesday.

 A broader sell-off in commodities, including oil, also likely influenced natural gas futures on Tuesday, Bespoke Weather Services said. Rising coronavirus cases in China and other countries – and the specter of new lockdowns – fueled the commodities slump. 

[Decision Maker: A real-time news service focused on the North American natural gas and LNG markets, NGI’s All News Access is the industry’s go-to resource for need-to-know information. Learn more.]

 The drop in Henry Hub futures “appears to be tied to macro selling across all commodities,” Bespoke said. “While we would still hesitate to have much confidence in this market…our lean would be to the bullish side, given hot weather, and a supply/demand balance that appears supportive.”

metmike: Still hot but the heat ridge backs up west in week 2, to where less people live.

Could be some bullish injection data for the South this Thursday!

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

Latest Release  Jul 14, 2022   Actual58B   Forecast58B   Previous60B

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

 for week ending July 8, 2022   |  Released: July 14, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 21, 2022 

                               +58 BCF exactly the guess number

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,369 Bcf as of Friday, July 8, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 58 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 252 Bcf less than last year at this time and 319 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,688 Bcf. At 2,369 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2017 through 2021. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Natural Gas Futures Flip-Flop After In-Line Storage Injection Clouds Supply Picture

With supply challenges enduring and cooling demand mounting, traders initially shrugged off a modestly bearish government inventory report and drove up natural gas futures much of Thursday.  The August Nymex gas futures contract ultimately fizzled in afternoon trading, though, dipping 8.9 cents day/day to settle at $6.600/MMBtu. September fell 7.8 cents to $6.511. NGI’s Spot… 

metmike: The heat ridge will be back up/retrograding westward, with the most intense heat being where population density is LOW. So AC demand will be highest in low population areas....with a notable exception being TX.

Also, it's still very warm across MOST of the country, even the cooler locations.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Overnight guidance was -4 CDD's, both GFS and Euro and that caused selling pressure for several hours but this was more from model variation and not weather pattern change, so we came all the way back (here at mid morning) to the solid gains noted before the less hot models were released overnight.

Below is a case of the reporter at NGI not following NG close enough to know why we were lower:

Natural Gas Futures Drop as Traders Continue Assessing Balances Amid Strong Summer Heat

Spurred by ‘Searing Heat,’ Natural Gas Futures Continue to March Higher

Continued expectations for widespread sweltering temperatures based on the latest forecasts had natural gas futures surging higher in early trading Monday, extending gains from late last week. After posting a 41.6-cent gain in Friday’s session, the August Nymex contract was up 23.4 cents to $7.250/MMBtu as of around 8:50 a.m. ET. Major weather models over… 

metmike: Interesting that the most intense heat is in the western half of the country and not in the East/Southeast where it has the highest impact on NG demand to burn for generating AC use.

Still very warm/hot there though and very hot in TX.

 I wonder how much extra NG is now being used to generate electricity for AC in Western Europe due to the record breaking heatwave in Spain, France, the UK, and other locations. I assume though that many in especially up in the UK likely have no AC. But do many in Spain have it?

Great question Larry because the last I heard they were still battling a low ng storage crisis.

As you remember, last Fall, that was actually the main driver for US prices of NG.

though the damage to a US export facility has taken 2 bcf of exports away.

maybe the heat and prices there are affecting US prices again?

More on the amazing heat in Europe, thanks to WxFollower/Larry........here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/87177/

US weather: 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852

Natural Gas Futures Pare Gains Early as Forecasts Ease Back on Heat

Shrugging off weaker numbers in updated production estimates, natural gas futures pared their gains in early trading Tuesday as sweltering forecasts cooled somewhat.  The August Nymex futures contract was off 24.7 cents to $7.232/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET, cutting into the previous session’s 46.3-cent rally. Updated domestic production estimates from Wood Mackenzie were showing… 

metmike: 0z Euro and 6z GFS were -4 CDDs cooler/less hot.

Some sort of bullish news was just released 3 minutes before Noon CDT as ng shot up $3,000 in 2 minutes.

Maybe related to the damaged export facility? You got anything Larry?

7/20 07:51a CST  DJ US Natural Gas Rises Despite Putin's Nord Stream 
Commitment -- Market Talk 
 
     0849 ET - Natural gas prices in the US climb 3.2% to $7.497/mmBtu despite 
Vladimir Putin's assurances that Russia would fulfill commitments to supply 
natural gas to Europe by way of the Nord Stream pipeline. But Putin also says 
flows could soon be disrupted if sanctions prevent needed maintenance on the 
line. Worries that gas flows to Europe might be cut off have provided extra 
bullish sentiment in the US gas market in recent days, as it would tighten 
global supplies of the commodity in commercial markets. The latest US weather 
forecasts have also moderated somewhat, with the Weather Channel saying the 
10-day forecast for the Southern Plains is looking slightly less-hot than it 
projected earlier. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)

 The above is from earlier in the day. That's all I have.

Thanks Larry!

We managed a high almost $2,500 higher than that....+$5,500 from just before the market was fed that news before backing off a bit from the high around 1:48 pm.

The high for the day was 8.03 then. 

Mike said: "We managed a high almost $2,500 higher than that....+$5,500 from just before the market was fed that news before backing off a bit from the high around 1:48 pm."

-------------------------------

 Thanks, Mike. So, it sounds like you're implying that today's big rise at midday had little to do with wx forecast/model changes. Just another example of a day that reminds me to "be afraid, be very afraid" of taking a position in this market and instead just watch from the sidelines if I want.

There's a chance the release of some weather info product beyond 2 weeks that I don't get updated for a hotter August.

The week 2 models are suggesting the heat ridge rebuild farther in early August but nothing came out in that realm that could have triggered +3,000 in 2 minutes.

In the first half of Winter, with low storage a profound weather pattern change and in HDDs might have that sort of impact. Not a chance today.

Could have been news in Europe too.

Weak Storage Injection Reignites August Natural Gas Futures

 Only 32 Bcf of natural gas was injected into storage for the week ended July 15, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Thursday. The print fell far short of expectations amid inventory decreases in a South Central region barraged by unrelenting heat. Median estimates of major surveys ahead of the print hung in… 

metmike: models were LESS hot overnight. Euro was -5 CDDs bearish.  But the EIA was pretty BULLISH! Maybe the news yesterday at this time was the release of an experts EIA guess being this low? Or something in Europe? Onward we go.

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

Latest Release   Jul 21, 2022    Actual 32B    Forecast  47B -WOW!  Previous58B

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending July 15, 2022   |  Released: July 21, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 28, 2022 

      +32 BCF- VERY BULLISH!                                         

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,401 Bcf as of Friday, July 15, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 32 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 270 Bcf less than last year at this time and 328 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,729 Bcf. At 2,401 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

These were the temps last week for the EIA period:

Hot western 2/3rds of the country, especially TX. These are some pretty solid positive anomolies for the hottest time of year. 

Mild/pleasant  Great Lakes to Mid Atlantic to Northeast.

Natural Gas Futures Rally Loses Steam Despite Bullish Storage Print, Weather Outlook

metmike: The huge question is what will August weather be like? There WILL be a heat dome but the location matters tremendously. The farther east it is, the more people might be affected and the more ng is used for cooling.

 Today's EIA release tied with the one released two weeks ago as the most bullish vs the WSJ survey since the late December holidays and the most bullish no holiday week since the 16 bcf bullish miss for the week ending 10/8/21.

 The following DJ news releases from the last two days are still more examples of why I wouldn't feel confident trading NG if I were still doing it: note the three in which I highlighted "Russia" or "Russian". I also included the one sent out just after the very bullish EIA because of the followup 7/21 1:58 PM release saying NG still came back down later due to a resumption of Russian gas flows. In other words, that trumped the very bullish EIA.

07/21 01:58p CST  DJ Natural Gas Falls Despite Bullish EIA Report -- Market Talk 

1458 ET - Natural gas prices in the US fall 0.9% to finish at 
$7.932/mmBtu as a resumption of Russian gas flows to Europe through the Nord 
Stream pipeline temporarily alleviate worries of global shortages. Prices 
turned higher mid-morning and were trading at a five-week-high above $8 after 
the EIA reported a bullish 32B cubic feet weekly injection to storage that was 
well below forecasts and averages. It highlighted a surge in domestic demand 
due to a heatwave stretching across much of the nation. But temperature 
forecasts over the next couple weeks are beginning to moderate some, and that's 
once again bringing out some bearish investors, especially since peak summer 
heat is just about over. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)  


07/21 09:43a CST  DJ Natural Gas Turns Higher After Below-Forecast Storage Rise 
-- Market Talk 

1043 ET - Natural gas prices in the US erase earlier declines and climb 
0.6% to $8.056/mmBtu after a weekly EIA report lands bullish compared to 
forecasts and averages. The government agency says gas-in-storage rose last 
week by just 32B cubic feet, compared to a WSJ survey forecast of 48-bcf and a 
five-year average rise of 41. Total storage now stands at 2.401T cubic feet, 
10% below last year and 12% below the five-year average. The small weekly 
increase reinforces the view that a very hot summer in some large population 
regions of the US such as Texas is boosting cooling demand considerably. 
(dan.molinski@wsj.com)  



07/21 09:32a CST  *DJ Natural Gas Erases Declines, Gains 1.4% to $8.116 After 
Below-Forecast Storage Rise 


07/21 07:05a CST  DJ US Natural Gas Drops 5% as Russian Gas Flows Resume -- 
Market Talk 

0805 ET - Natural gas prices in the US quickly shed about half of 
yesterday's large, 10% increase, falling as much as 5.1% early in NY to 
$7.606/mmBtu as the resumption of Russian gas flows through the Nord Stream 
pipeline takes some bullish fears of global shortages out of the market. 
Technically, US natural gas prices shouldn't be impacted much by what Russia 
does, as US LNG export capacity is already maxed out, meaning it can't increase 
exports to Europe anyhow. But that hasn't stopped speculators from injecting 
the Russian situation into the market, partly on the argument that it will 
hasten LNG construction projects and may also lead to looser regulations that 
could boost US LNG exports. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)  



07/20 01:59p CST  DJ US Natural Gas Ends at 5-Week-High Above $8 -- Market Talk 

1459 ET - Natural gas prices in the US finish the session with a massive 
10.2% increase to a five-week-high $8.007/mmBtu as investors become 
increasingly bullish on the commodity due to fears Russia may stop providing 
gas to Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that gas shipments through 
the Nord Stream pipeline into Europe would restart this week but may be as low 
as 20% of capacity. Putin also warns that further reductions are possible if 
maintenance can't be done to the pipeline due to sanctions. If gas to Europe is 
disrupted, it would likely cause global demand for commercially available 
natural gas to surge much higher. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)  

(END) Dow Jones Newswires 

July 20, 2022 14:59 ET (18:59 GMT) 

Russia, Russia, Russia:

07/22 03:46a CST  DJ Natural Gas Prices Rebound on Nord Stream Turbine Report 
-- Market Talk 
 
     0846 GMT - Natural gas prices rise after a report that a Nord Stream 
turbine, that had been cited as the cause of reduced flows through the gas 
pipeline, was stuck in Germany. Benchmark European gas futures gain 6.4% to 
EUR169.98 a megawatt hour, erasing declines that came Thursday after the 
pipeline restarted following a period of maintenance. Reuters reported that the 
missing turbine, which had been undergoing maintenance in Canada, was now stuck 
in Germany as Russia hadn't permitted it to be transported back to the Nord 
Stream pumping station near St. Petersburg. It had earlier been held up in 
Canada by sanctions, which Gazprom said was the cause of reduced gas flows to 
Europe through the pipeline. (william.horner@wsj.com)  
 
  
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires 

Thanks. That confirms my concerns earlier this week that news from Europe, like last Fall, is most important at times.

and the news doesn’t trickle in. You get hit with it all at once with an event or report and the market goes up or down thousands of dollars in minutes, sometime even seconds.

Natural Gas Futures Called Higher as Heat, Contract Expiration Seen Influencing Trade

metmike: August ng expires on Wednesday. There is often volatility and spikes(more than usual) as that day gets near. 

Heat Wave, Russian Retaliation and Energy Turmoil in Europe Fuel Natural Gas Futures Rally

metmike: At around 6:45 am, ng spiked up over $6,000 in just over 30 minutes. 

After that, around 6 different well defined waves of selling took the price down $7,000 from that price spike higher by the close.

August NG expires tomorrow. 

Volatility Expected into August Expiry as Natural Gas Futures Pull Back Early

metmike: Volatility is ng's middle name!

August Natural Gas Futures Lose Momentum Heading into Expiry; Bull Case Intact

 August Nymex natural gas futures faltered Wednesday, snapping a furious rally that dated to last week amid robust cooling demand and global supply worries. The prompt month gas futures contract settled at $8.687/MMBtu, down 30.6 cents day/day. September fell 27.1 cents to $8.554. At A Glance: Nymex gas trading proves volatile Weather-driven demand holds strong… 

metmike: How how will August be? The market knows it will be hot but if its LESS hot, that can be a bit bearish as it gets dialed into forecasts.

Weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

"Europe", "LNG", "Russian"...no thanks as I like my NG domestic ;)

07/26 01:49p CST  DJ Natural Gas Ends at 7-Week-High Just Below $9 -- Market 
 Talk 
 
     1449 ET - Natural gas prices finish up 3% at $8.993/mmBtu, the highest 
 closing price since June 7 as hot weather and an ongoing, natural gas-led 
 energy crisis in Europe triggers some of the market's biggest gains in months. 
 Gas prices have climbed by 66% since the month began, including a 24% jump over 
 the past week alone. Investors sold off the commodity in June after a fire at 
 an LNG plant in Texas sparked fears demand would decline and inventories would 
 surge higher. But inventories have instead remained in a large deficit compared 
 to averages, helped by hot temperatures in Texas and elsewhere that boosted 
 cooling demand. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)  
 

 07/26 07:40a CST  DJ US Natural Gas Prices Surge Toward 14-Year High -- Market 
 Talk 
 
     0840 ET - Natural gas prices in the US jump 10.5% to $9.643/mmBtu, and if 
 those prices hold then the market would close at its highest level since 2008. 
 "Clearly, hot weather patterns, tight US supplies, and production failing to 
 hold above 96 Bcf/day are primary contributors," says NatGasWeather.com in a 
 research note. It adds that last week's bullish storage report was also 
 important as it showed supplies remain tight even six weeks after the shutdown 
 of an LNG plant in Texas that was expected to cause inventories to bulk up as 
 feedgas demand declined. The front-month August contract expires tomorrow. The 
 September contract is up 8% at $9.249. ( dan.molinski@wsj.com )  
 

 07/25 10:20a CST  DJ Natural Gas Extends Gains Amid Nord Stream Reduction Fears 
 -- Market Talk 
 
     1120 ET - Natural gas prices are up nearly 4% today. WSJ reports that 
 Russia's Gazprom says natural-gas exports through Nord Stream to Germany will 
 drop to about a fifth of the pipe's capacity, blaming problems with a turbine. 
 That raises questions about Europe's ability to store enough gas for the 
 winter. The reduction in the pipeline's capacity-from 40% currently to 20%-is 
 expected to take effect Wednesday, Gazprom says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; 
 @ptrevisani)  

Tomorrow's EIA release will be based on 92 HDD, which is the hottest week since the week ending 7/24/20. A very small injection is expected. WSJ average guess is +23.

Thanks much Larry!

7 day temps for last week and the EIA report tomorrow. Last week, we seasonally/climatologically the hottest week of the year.

Pretty impressive, widespread positive anomalies considering that, so no wonder the injection is expected to be dinky!

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending July 22, 2022   |  Released: July 28, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: August 4, 2022 

                                                                                                                                           +15 BCF-BULLISH                        

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,416 Bcf as of Friday, July 22, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 15 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 293 Bcf less than last year at this time and 345 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,761 Bcf. At 2,416 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2017 through 2021. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Spike higher seconds after the release, then lower for the day and now coming back a bit.

Overnight guidance, mainly Euro was NOT AS hot. European model was -5 CDDs vs the previous run.

September Natural Gas Futures See-Saw Following Anemic 15 Bcf Storage Injection

metmike: Actually, NG has been under alot of pressure the last 2 hours, since the release........LESS hot forecasts/lower CDD's and the bullish # out of the way.

Presenting a new buying opportunity.  

Or marking a short term top and buying exhaustion if the models get even less hot.

The Euro added back much of the heat that it took out 12 hours ago and gave us a little bounce that's already fading.

September Natural Gas Futures Contract Finds Fragile Footing in Debut as Prompt Month

metmike: Less heat is bearish in a relative sense even when its still pretty hot and traders expect extreme heat.

Summer Heat Eating into Storage as Natural Gas Futures Pare Losses Early

metmike: The techicals look enough like a top and the heat is known and dialed in and prices have come along way so bulls don't have much incentive here.

It's another commodity that has come a long way in a short amount of time.  

I had something that never happened to me before on my computer happen earlier.

I looked on my computer, in the right hand corner of the screen with my Sept Natural gas depth of market quotes and positions and saw that I was long 1 contract of ng at 8.304 and behind $220......out of nowhere.

What the heck!

I've accidentally hit the place order button a ton of times before but then, when the next screen came up,  immediately canceled it and never actually sent it. 

Somehow, this time I hit the place order button accidentally AND hit the send  order button accidentally after that.

And only noticed it some time later, which wasn't too long before the close. If I'd left the computer after unknowingly placing the order and come back after the market was closed, I would be long 1 contract.

As soon as this was realized I closed the position for a tiny loss but a good lesson to be more careful.

Making that mistake at the wrong time on the wrong day in natural gas could have cost many thousands of bucks.

I just did this again on purpose and it's almost impossible for this to happen unless there was a glitch in my key board that triggered this response. I've been having huge glitch issues with this keyboard for weeks..........time to replace it. 

In 30 years of trading, I think I only did this one time before, 10 years ago...........though I was convinced  that time was not me. It was a decent sized position that lost something like $8,000 in KC wheat on my Ipad in the middle of the night, at my dad's house when I woke up 3 hours later and looked at my trading screen. 

I called the broker and insisted that I didn't place the order and they thought I was nuts and an idiot. "Who else would have done it!" was his response. Must have left the screen open and accidentally hit the wrong buttons while sleeping. 

So I try to remember to close that screen in the middle of the night.

Anybody else do this?

Models are cooler...........can you tell by the open (-:

Huge gap lower. Could be a downside breakaway gap.

I was trying to sell the open but missed it by a mile and its not appealing to get short at $4,500/contract lower than the Fri close.  Such are Sunday Night opens. It happens all the time.

The open was a big OVER reaction to changes from Friday. I can only guess that an large amount of longs(in this case) bailed at the market to get out.

September Natural Gas Slides Further as Weekend Weather Models Shift Cooler

metmike: Yep but some of the overnight models were a bit hotter again.

WOW!  We just closed the gap by shooting up $3,000 in around 20 minutes.

It's a gap and crap selling exhaustion signal on the charts now but not especially powerful because of where it is and in this volatile market.

Natural Gas Futures See Late Bounce as August Forecast Turns Hotter; Rain Dampens Cash

metmike: Not much change in the forecast. The $3,000 spike higher came BEFORE the midday models came out.

Rally before gov data, but from PRIVATE (expensive) data??

tjc,

That would be impossible for 2 reasons, if it was tied to the main models that go out 2 weeks.

1. The data wasn't even out yet to use to run the models early

2. When the data WAS available and run on  the main GFS ensemble(American model) it was -3 CDD's COOLER. The spike higher, should have been a spike lower if that was the reason.

However, there could have been a longer range model for the month of August that I don't get that came out. Those have low skill. 

  Thank you for informative reply.

Someone always has better data, but you are still one of the best interpreters----just wish you were not so bogged down "administrating" as you can/did make some GREAT price projections!  (Remember the hurricane week and NG!!)

tjc,

Appreciate the high compliment!

Temps continue cooler, especially east with the heat ridge backing up on most models.

However,  a few ensembles want to hang on to the idea of a strong heat ridge farther east.

A new thread has been started:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/87816/