KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, July 20, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 300)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 224.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 685.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +2.2%)
10:00 AM ET. June Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.41M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -3.4%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.6)
Median Price (USD) (previous 407600)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +14.8%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 427.054M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.254M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 224.937M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.825M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 113.803M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.668M)
Refinery Usage (previous 94.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.72M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.744M)
Thursday, July 21, 2022
8:30 AM ET. July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -3.3)
Prices Paid (previous 64.5)
Employment (previous 28.1)
New Orders (previous -12.4)
Prices Received (previous 49.2)
Delivery Times (previous 9.9)
Inventories (previous -2.2)
Shipments (previous 10.8)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 244K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +9K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1331000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -41K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 407.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous -248.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 1047.2K)
10:00 AM ET. June Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
Leading Index
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2369B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +58B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, July 22, 2022
9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 52.4)
9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 51.6)
10:00 AM ET. June State Employment and Unemployment
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the June 27th high crossing at 12,262.00 would mark an upside breakout of the June-July trading range while opening the door for additional gains and a possible test of June's high crossing at 12,973.75. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 11,479.25 would temper the near-term friendly outlook while opening the door for a test of June's low crossing at 11,068.50. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 12,385.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00. Second support is June's low crossing at 11,068.50.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 28th high crossing at 3950.00 would mark an upside breakout of the June-July trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 3723.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 3642.00. First resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 3950.00. Second resistance is the May 31st high crossing at 4204.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3723.75. Second support is June's low crossing at 3642.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-week's. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 136-24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6th high crossing at 142-06. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 136-24. Second support is June's low crossing at 131-01.
September T-notes was steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks, Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 8th low crossing at 117.180 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 120.195. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is the July 8th low crossing at 117.180. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:August crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned rally the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.62 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $88.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.62. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.66. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $90.56. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $88.16.
August heating oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.2689 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.8736 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.8736. Second resistance is the July 1st high crossing at $4.0264. First support is the July 6th low crossing at $3.3510. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.2689.
August unleaded gas was steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4672 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the April 25th low crossing at 2.9974 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.3075. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4672. First support is the April 25th low crossing at 2.9974. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.9354.
August Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.505 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.428 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.505. Second resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 7.981. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.428. Second support is the July 5th low crossing at 5.325.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.131 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.131. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.303.
The September Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.03399 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.03399. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.05281. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.
The September British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2061 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2061. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2273. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.1778. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03778 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.00974 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03778. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.05910. First support is the 75% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.01656. Second support is the 87% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.00974.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.70. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at $78.02. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.79. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.09.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073566 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073566. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075634. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.072085. Second support is the September-1990 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.072160.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Augustgold was steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1764.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average $1721.10. Second is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1764.10. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1695.00. Second support is the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30.
September silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $19.681 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off March's high, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $19.360. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.681. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $18.010. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015.
September copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.5236 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.5236. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 3.8500. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.1315. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.20 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.20 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
September wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.62 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.62 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday's low crossing at $7.65 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.19 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.72 1/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is the July 6th low crossing at $8.70 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the crossing at $12.99 1/4 is the next downside target. If November extends the rally off the July 6th low, the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.90 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.90 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $12.74.
December soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, July's low crossing at $375.30 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at $418.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $418.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $419.10. First support is July's low crossing at $375.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40.
December soybean oil was steady to higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 62.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 62.65. Second resistance is the June 29th high crossing at 67.76. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 54.42. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93.
Thanks tallpine!
Too much rain in the forecast for grains to rally. This was the last 6z GFS ensemble rain forecast for the next 2 weeks:
Hot enough to be bullish for natural gas but the pattern late week 1 is not quite as hot but could turn very bullish late week 2 and week 3.
Weeks 3-4 forecasts don't have a great deal of skill show big heat in the East/Midwest back to the Midwest/Plains.....but still SOME rain for the Midwest.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83949
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
Temperatures below. These maps are 1 day old.
Precip below..
