@kannbwx

#Ukraine says its grain exports may reach 3.5 million tonnes per month because of the export deal, though it wouldn't happen right away. In normal times, Ukraine often shipped 5 mmt or more of grain per month.

From last week:

@kannbwx

Jul 22

#China's agriculture imports are down on the year (by a good margin) and recent imports are much lower than they were last year. Last year's haul was huge, record for grains I believe, without checking. Definitely for corn.

@kannbwx

Jul 22

#Brazil's upcoming harvest of #soybeans is being called a probable "super harvest" by one consultancy, which projects the 2022/23 crop at 154.53 million tonnes, up 18% from this year's drought cycle.

@kannbwx

Large sales of new-crop U.S. #soybeans to #China and unknown last week, though new #corn sales were slightly disappointing (#Mexico was the top buyer). Old crop #cotton sales were a marketing year low (net reduction of 4,000RB).

@kannbwx

21m

#China + unknown buyers last week made their largest weekly purchase of new-crop U.S. #soybeans since mid-April. The 12.5 mmt total as of July 21 is an 8-year high & accounts for 84% of sales. Lots of those deals were done in Feb, but now is the time of year they should pick up.

#Corn in 19th century USA The #1 corn exporter has come a long way since the 1800s, producing 15.1 billion bushels & exporting 2.45 billion bushels (est) in 2021/22. But in 1898, USA was already raising a larger corn crop than rival supplier Argentina does today!

@kannbwx

A brief history of U.S. #corn yield growth since the 1860s  Notable growth in yields was seen after the adoption of modern fertilizers in the 1940s, which made drought years esp. in the 1980s stand out more than before (compare with 1930s Dust Bowl for example).

@kannbwx

The first chart makes trend yield look like it's just up up up. But let's zoom in. Look at the last several years. What's really the trend? To me, 181 for 2022 seemed too high (USDA's original "unofficial" before planting delays). Input greatly welcome here, it's been on my mind.