Crop Conditions 8-8-22
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Started by metmike - Aug. 8, 2022, 11:27 a.m.

In Detroit with my 97 year old Dad this week, so some info may be delayed or not as comprehensive.

Dry areas will likely deteriorate. Wet areas last week are likely to improve or stay the same.

Rains last week:

7 Days


14 Days



30 Days below

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 8, 2022, 11:30 a.m.
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It was HOT last week. Temp anomalies above at this time of year are pretty impressive  especially in the Plains.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20220805.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2022, 11:38 a.m.
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By Jim_M - Aug. 8, 2022, 12:07 p.m.
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Here in NE Ohio it WAS dry, but we have. Been getting some pretty good rains lately.  Crops look good.

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2022, 2:46 p.m.
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By metmike - Aug. 8, 2022, 11:29 p.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. #corn conditions down 3 pts (trade expected -1), #soybeans down 1 pt (expected), spring #wheat down 6 pts (trade expected steady). Spring wheat is 9% harvested, winter wheat lags avg at 86%. #Cotton conditions plunged 7 pts to 31% good/excellent.

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By metmike - Aug. 8, 2022, 11:30 p.m.
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@kannbwx


Dry, warm weather in the western U.S. #Corn Belt last week is reflected in the crop rating decline. There was some rain late Sun/Mon in some areas, though another dry week is expected for the west. 58% good/exc is the 2nd lowest for the week since 2012 (1st: 57%, 2019).

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By metmike - Aug. 8, 2022, 11:30 p.m.
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@kannbwx

#Soybeans are a similar story: western/northern declines slightly outweighed eastern/southern improvements. Conditions fall 1 pt to 59% good/exc - also the 2nd worst since 2012 (1st: 54% 2019), but the same weeks in 2021 & 2017 were 60%.

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By metmike - Aug. 9, 2022, 12:10 a.m.
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Not much rain for the Western and Central Cornbelt the next 2 weeks! Temps will be less hot than recent weeks but may start warming up again late in the period.


Corn deteriorated -3% on the crop report which was a bullish surprise. 

Beans -1% as expected. 

It's starting to get pretty late in the growing season for weather to have a big impact.


                                    


                         

                 

                                                                              


By metmike - Aug. 9, 2022, 12:11 a.m.
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The rest of the weather is here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

By bowyer - Aug. 9, 2022, 10 a.m.
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1.4 inches here yesterday. Local crops look good

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2022, 10:32 a.m.
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Thanks bowyer......glad to hear it!

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2022, 11:06 a.m.
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Corn ratings dropped 3% which was a surprise but beans -1% was expected.

Dry weather will hurt beans the most. It's getting late in the growing season but bean ratings will likely drop several % this month with this forecast. 

Cool weather is good for kernel filling for corn and offsets the hurt from dry in August.

This was the last 6z GFS.  BULLISH, with less than 1 inch of rain everywhere but the southeast Cornbelt.

However, temps will be at or just below average, which minimizes the hurt from dryness. Higher CO2 levels allow plants to get their CO2 without opening stomata on the bottom of their leaves as wide, which reduces transpiration and water loss

Higher CO2 causes plants to be more water efficient and drought tolerant. This same forecast 100 years ago with the old climate that had 120 ppm LESS CO2 would be MORE bullish because it would hurt the plants more.

That's in addition to the massive contribution from CO2 fertilization that's increasing growth of most plants by 24% compared to the OLD climate.

By metmike - Aug. 11, 2022, 11:51 p.m.
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Rain amounts increasing a bit in much of the Cornbelt on the last 18z GFS ensemble precip maps going out 2 weeks.