KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, September 29, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims, Net Chg
Continuing Claims
Continuing Claims, Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous -0.6%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +8.9%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +10.4%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +7.1%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +8.4%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex-Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +4.4%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 30, 2022
8:30 AM ET. August Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)
9:45 AM ET. Sept. Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 52.2)
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter GDP by State
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 58.2)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 58.0)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.8%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 58.6)
3:00 PM ET. August Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
N/A U.S. fiscal year ends
N/A Latest deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt shutdown
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 27,953.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30,854.96 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 30,134.37. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30,854.96. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 28,958.22. Second support is monthly support crossing at 27,953.65.
The December NASDAQ 100 close sharply higher on Wednesday as it bounced off support marked by June's low. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If December extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at 11,135.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,012.46 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,668.73. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,012.46. First support is today's low crossing at 11,141.50. Second support is June's low crossing at 11,135.00.
The December S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 3491.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3895.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3794.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3895.30. First support is today's low crossing at 3613.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 3491.65.
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December T-bonds closed up 2-15-pts. at 127-09.
December T-bonds posted a key reversal up as it closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 118-21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 128-30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-03. First support is today's low crossing at 123-30. Second support is monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 118-21.
December T-notes closed up 1260-pts. at 112.225.
December T-notes posted a key reversal up due to short covering as it closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.168 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.168. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.106. First support is today's low crossing at 110.190. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 crossing at 105.157.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $84.13 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $74.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.13. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.31. First support isthe 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $74.38. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 65.20.
November heating oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4805 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.7293 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4805. Second resistance is the September 6th high crossing at 3.6996. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.0693. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.7293.
November unleaded gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5332 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5332. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2.7173. First support is the September low crossing at 2.2487. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346.
November Henry natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.048 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.989 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.449. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.989. First support is the 75% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 6.598. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 6.048.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar posted a huge key reversal down as it closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.300 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $114.745. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.300. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.080.
The December Euro posted a key reversal up as it closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2000-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $0.99811 is needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $0.99811. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.01350. First support is today's low crossing at $0.95920. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2000-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.93211.
The December British Pound closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1365 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1365. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 1.1759. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0392. Second support is psychological support crossing at 1.0000.
The December Swiss Franc posted a key reversal up and closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04760 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the June low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.00235 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04760. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.06325. First support is today's low crossing at 1.01105. Second support is the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.00235 is the next downside target.
The December Canadian Dollar closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 72.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.27. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.24. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 72.14. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 70.42.
The December Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.071895 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.071895. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.73080. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.069150. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
December gold closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1693.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1697.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1740.30. First support is today's low crossing at $1622.20. Second support is monthly support crossing at $1610.30.
December silver close higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the September 1st low crossing at 17.320 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the August high crossing at 21.020 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 12th high crossing at 20.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 21.020. First support is today's low crossing at 17.895. Second support is the September 1st low crossing at 17.320.
December copper posted a key reversal up as it closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.1315 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5224 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.6925. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.7835. First support today's low crossing at 3.2430. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1315.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up $0.03-cents at $6.70 1/2.
December corn closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.42 1/2 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $7.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the September 8th low crossing at $6.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.42 1/2.
December wheat closed up $0.31 3/4-cents at $9.03 1/4.
December wheat closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.25 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $9.22 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.25 1/2. Second support is the September 1st low crossing at $7.91 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.32 3/4-cents at $9.76.
December Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 11th high crossing at $10.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.92 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $9.89 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.27 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.92 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.29 1/4-cents at $9.72 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.94 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $9.06 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.94 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.66 1/2. First support is September's low crossing at $8.80. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.61 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.00 3/4-cents at $14.08 3/4.
November soybeans closed fractionally higher on Wednesday but remains below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.18 signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, theSeptember 8th low crossing at $13.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.41 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.12. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.47 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $13.90 3/4. Second support is the September 8th low crossing at $13.73.
December soybean meal closed down $0.90 at $412.70.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the September 7th low crossing at $404.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $425.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $425.40. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $443.80. First support is the September 7th low crossing at $404.40. Second support the August's low crossing at $395.50.
December soybean oil closed down 24-pts. at 62.15.
December soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 60.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 12th high crossing at 68.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is August's low crossing at 60.20. Second support is the July 22nd low crossing at 55.53.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed down $3.15 at $76.25.
December hogs closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $73.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $85.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $85.66. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $89.08. First support is today's low crossing at $75.33. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $73.31.
December cattle closed down $0.53 at $146.38.
December cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at $145.92 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $149.71 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $149.71. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $152.23. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at $145.92. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at $144.56.
November Feeder cattle closed down $0.98 at $175.30.
November Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $173.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $182.36 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $179.56. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $182.36. First support is today's low crossing at $175.03. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $173.53.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's high, August's high crossing at $24.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.02 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $23.21. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $24.30. First support is September's low crossing at $21.09. Second support is the August 19th low crossing at $20.95.
December cocoa closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's gap crossing at 23.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 19.46 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends this summer's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 17.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the September 13th high crossing at 18.18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 82.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.61 would signal that a low has been posted.
Thanks much tallpine!
Wheat's powerful upmove was probably tied to the war in Ukraine and decisions by Russia.
OJ market is wild right now.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89232/
Ian is getting much of my attention
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89131/