KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, October 4, 2022
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +10.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +11.0%)
10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.5%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -1.1%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:00 AM ET. August Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.0M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.4M)
Wednesday, October 5, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 254.8)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 199.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 524.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -10.9%)
8:15 AM ET. September ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +132000)
8:30 AM ET. August U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -70.65B)
Exports (USD) (previous 259.29B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Imports (USD) (previous 329.94B)
Imports, M/M% (previous -2.9%)
9:00 AM ET. IMF World Economic Outlook analytical chapters
9:45 AM ET. September US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 43.7)
10:00 AM ET. September ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (previous 56.9)
Business Activity Idx (previous 60.9)
Prices Idx (previous 71.5)
Employment Idx (previous 50.2)
New Orders Idx (previous 61.8)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 430.559M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.215M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 212.188M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.422M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 114.359M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.891M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.77M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.832M)
11:00 AM ET. September Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 49.2)
Thursday, October 6, 2022
7:30 AM ET. September Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -21%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 193K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -16K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1347000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -29K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2977B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +103B)
12:00 PM ET. September Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, October 7, 2022
8:30 AM ET. IMF releases Chapter 2 of the Global Financial Stability Report
8:30 AM ET. September U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +315K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 32.36)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.31%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +5.20%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +7K)
Private Payroll (previous +308K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.4%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. August Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
3:00 PM ET. August Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +23.8B)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,820.15 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 10,027.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,820.15. Second resistance is the September 21st high crossing at 12,140.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 10,890.75. Second support is monthly support crossing at 10,027.00.
The December S&P 500 was higher in late-overnight trading. The stage is set for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3840.11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 3840.11. Second resistance is the September 20th high crossing at 3936.25. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3571.75. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 118-21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-27. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 135-17. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 123-30. Second support is monthly support crossing at 118-21.
December T-notes was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.274 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.274. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.272. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 110.190. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:November crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off last-Monday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.50 is the next upside target. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $74.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.50. Second resistance is the September 14th high crossing at $89.63. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $76.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $74.38.
November heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4256 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.7293 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4256. Second resistance is the September 6th high crossing at $3.6996. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.0693. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.7293.
November unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5687 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $2.3244 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5687. Second resistance is the August 11th high crossing at $2.7173. First support is the September 8th low crossing at $2.2487. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346.
November Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.048 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.535 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.924. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.535. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.048. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.465.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.759 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $114.745. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.759. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.509.
The December Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $0.99496 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $0.99496. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.01008. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $0.95920. Second support is monthly support crossing at $0.93211.
The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Monday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1707 is the next upside target. If September renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1707. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.1759. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.0392. Second support is psychological support crossing at 1.0000.
The December Swiss Franc is working on a possible inside day as it traded higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, the June low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.00235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03512 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03512. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04557. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.01105. Second support is the June low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.00235.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.63. Second resistance is the September 20th high crossing at $75.62. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $72.27. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14.
The December Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight as it extends September's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. Closes above the September 22nd high crossing at 0.071895 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 22nd high crossing at 0.071895. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.072746. First support is the September 22nd low crossing at 0.069150. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1736.70 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1736.70. Second resistance is the August 25th high crossing at $1778.80. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $1622.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30.
December silver was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $21.248 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.225 would open the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at 17.400. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $21.248. Second resistance is 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.448. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $17.895. Second support is the September low crossing at 17.400.
December copper was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5278 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.1355 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5278. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 3.6925. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3.2430. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1355.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends September's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.50 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 12th high crossing at $6.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the September 6th low crossing at $6.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.50 1/2.
December wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.50 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.76 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.50 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.14 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.76 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.34 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average $9.47 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average $9.47 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.03.
December Minneapolis wheat was slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.23 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.94 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.23 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at $8.80.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at $13.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.27. Second resistance is the September 21st high crossing at $14.88 3/4. First support is August's low crossing at $13.56. Second support is July's low crossing at $12.88 1/2.
December soybean meal was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at $395.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $419.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $415.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $419.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at $399.30. Second support is August's low crossing at $395.50.
December soybean oil was higher overnight while extending the August-October trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.52 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off September's high, the August 4th low crossing at 60.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.52. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 68.00. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 60.75. Second support is the August 4th low crossing at 60.20.
Thanks tallpine!
Drought is causing some problems in several key places of the world because of the La Nina(cool water in the tropical Pacific). This included the US and our HRW crop being planted right now.
We'll try to stay on top of that:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89426/