@kannbwx

Here's two views of soy export inspections versus prior years. Last week's numbers were okay, not excellent. Maybe excellent considering the problems in the river? Will continue to watch this dataset closely in the next few weeks.

@kannbwx

Mato Grosso #corn sales are well behind averages, too. The 21/22 crop was 78% sold this month versus 90% normal and 89% last year. The 22/23 crop is 17% sold versus 33% last year/avg.

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Mato Grosso farmers have sold only 29% of their 22/23 #soybeans as of this month, down from last year's 40% and an average of 38%. 

Selling pace has slowed way down over the last several months.

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#Brazil's farmers planted 6M hectares (14.8M acres) of #soybeans last week to bring planting progress to 24%, up from 10% last week and 22% last year.

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This is despite a surge in fertilizer imports, causing the re-exports of some. Port storage is full, and much of the supply has not moved internally. Fertilizer deliveries could still be lower this year than last as farmers delayed/skipped purchasing.

reuters.comBrazil unusually re-exports fertilizer amid storage shortage - port authorityBrazil, which normally relies on fertilizer imports to boost crop yields, is re-exporting cargoes as there is nowhere to store them following a surge in inbound shipments earlier this year, according...

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USDA's #Brazil attache estimates the cost to produce #soybeans in top state Mato Grosso will be 47% greater than last year, driven by a huge increase in fertilizer costs. Fertilizers are expected to account for 32% of total soy expenses versus 22% in the previous two years.

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@kannbwx

U.S. NOPA Crush, Sept. 2022:158.109 million bu of #soybeansBelow trade guess of 161.627+3% YOY, -2% 2YOY

#Soyoil stocks 1.459 bln lbsLowest in 2 years, below trade guess of 1.522 blnOil yield down on month but above past years

 kannbwx

Halfway through October, U.S.

#corn harvest price at $6.87 per bushel is up 17% from the February projection. 

#Soybeans are down 4% so far at $13.78. Both are 10-year highs.

@kannbwx

Quick view of seasonality chart for CBOT December #soyoil futures vs other relevant years. 

Soyoil is trading at its highest ever for the date (2021 is a close 2nd), but they're not as strong as the early June top near 80 cents/lb. 

Tight global vegoil supplies remain in focus.

@kannbwx

Oct. 18: CBOT Dec #soyoil futures surge to 4-month highs, settling at 68.74 cents/lb, above all moving averages. Monthly gains are nearing 12%.

 Tighter U.S. soyoil supplies, concerns for Ukraine's sunflower oil shipments, and palm oil strength are contributors.

@kannbwx

U.S. #ethanol production last week hit a 10-week high of 1.016M bpd, up 19% from three weeks ago.

 But on a 4-week average basis, production is about 8% below normal. The advancing #corn harvest has helped in lifting recent output.

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@kannbwx

U.S. gasoline demand has improved a little over the past several weeks but is still below normal, hanging out near the 2014 levels. The latest 4-week average is 6.4% below the same period a year ago.

@kannbwx

Analysts are looking for big sales of U.S. #soybeans Thursday morning after a string of flash sales last week (totaling 1.62 mmt). 

Upper end of the range is 2.5 mmt. Last year this week sales hit 2.75 mmt, the largest for any week in the 21/22 year. 1.9 mmt was #China.

@kannbwx

Oct. 19: Another jump in CBOT #soyoil futures, topping 70 cents/lb for the first time since June and settling at 70.64. Prior to 2021, most-active soyoil futures had topped 70 on only 2 other days, both in March 2008. Top vegoil importer #India is mulling higher import duties.

@kannbwx

#Argentina is now seen harvesting 15 mmt of #wheat vs 16 expected last week and a record 23 mmt last year. Drought is also keeping #corn planting slow.

@kannbwx

Big week for #soybeans in the export sales after last week's buying spree. #China had 1.98 mmt, and the week's total is the largest in exactly one year.

#Corn and #wheat sales were weak, #soymeal sales strong (Philippines was top buyer).