@kannbwx

11h

Yes, the three delegations plan to forge ahead on the export deal without Russia's cooperation:

@kannbwx

11h

Four hours into Sunday night trade, CBOT #wheat is up about 47 cents per bushel (was up 64 at most) and #corn has jumped 15 cents (max was about 19). Uncertainty increased over the weekend with Russia pulling out of the Ukraine grain export deal.

@kannbwx

49m

Russia is warning that safe passage of grain ships can no longer be guaranteed. That is logical, right? If Ukraine/Turkey/UN can just carry on exporting grain with no problems, then why would Russia's approval matter? What was this whole deal for anyway? Hence wary insurers.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89733/

Precip is actually bearish for grains/wheat but Ukraine news is what matters most!

Also crop ratings this afternoon will be horrible for the HRW crop!

The European model has even MORE rain than the GFS Ensemble below!

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php

As expected the HRW crop had the worst rating ever.

@kannbwx

U.S. winter #wheat gets its worst-ever start with just 28% in good/excellent condition, below all trade estimates and well below the prior two poorly rated years. 35% poor/very poor is also highest ever for the date.

Text:

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog4522.txt

@kannbwx

Looking at % poor/very poor now. 35% is fall's worst (prior high was 26% in Nov 2012 - yields in 2013 were MIXED after ok rains**). 42% of winter #wheat in Kansas and 65% in Texas is rated poor or very poor, well above normal.

@kannbwx

28% good/excellent is the worst-ever U.S. winter #wheat condition for the fall, not surprising with most of these areas in drought. Top producer Kansas is 24% (week's worst was 23% in 1992), which is 26 % points below average. Neighbors Oklahoma rated at 11% and Texas just 4%.

WOW!

@kannbwx

Here's how poor conditions are for the U.S. winter #wheat crop - very easy to see by this chart.

Most of this is week 1 precip in the drought areas but it's BEARISH! 18z GFS ensemble precip thru 384 hours.

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

All the weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

Weather page here: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

The severe drought has continued to get worse in the midsection of the country:

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                       ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths

October 25, 2022 Below

Drought worsening!!

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

AUGUST 16, 2022 BELOW

Drought is worse in the WCB compared to 3 weeks earlier

July 26, 2022-update

       U.S. Drought Monitor

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

         Drought monitor previous years:

The drought was not caused by climate change/global warming…..just the opposite.

its  the result of the current, extremely long lived  La Niña which is cold water anomalies in the tropical pacific. The opposite of a global warming pattern.
this is part of why global warming has paused the past 6 years

the best opportunity to end the drought will come from the slight, mostly beneficial warming resuming(with an El Nino, ideally) which caused the previous 3 decades of growing weather to be the best in the last 1,000 years.

add the beneficial CO2 during that time and growing conditions on the planet were the best since well before humans existed.

that’s why we’ve had massive global greening!

     https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/

La Nina conditions:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html

                                    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

As noted yesterday after the worst first crop ratings in history. The weather is BEARISH for wheat.

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Here's the daily breakdown

The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

384 hour rains from 6z GFS ensemble, mostly week 1

384 hour precip from the just out 0z GFS ensemble mean. Help for the drought and to increase the Mississippi River level.

All that rain is good news for the low Mississippi River levels.

Low Mississippi River levels to impact state and national economy

https://www.wlox.com/2022/11/02/low-mississippi-river-levels-impact-state-national-economy/

I think that it will increase even more than this below!

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=memt1&wfo=meg

Weather is BEARISH still for Winter wheat.

This was the biggest reason for the losses, however:

Russia rejoining Ukraine grain shipment agreement

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3715419-russia-rejoining-ukraine-grain-shipment-agreement/

@kannbwx

#Argentina may be preparing to allow #wheat exporters to delay agreed shipments to foreign customers after the crop has been slashed by drought, raising domestic supply concerns.

money.usnews.comExclusive-Argentina Set to Permit Wheat Export Delays Amid Drought - Sources

Latest precip.

Less rain this week but more in week 2.

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php

Last 6z GFS ensemble. Nice pick up of moisture  for many drought areas the next 2 weeks.

@kannbwx

Sept-Oct precipitation in the Midwestern U.S. at 58% of normal was the 10th driest in 128 years of records and driest since 1963, facilitating the spread of drought. Other driest Sep-Octs since 2000 (rank, % of norm): #27 2000, 77% #41 2011, 81% #42 2015, 82% #45 2005, 85%

Crop conditions Nov 7, 2022

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/90393/

Precip % of average the last 30 days

Not a great deal of precip on the way:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

2 weeks of precip from the 6z GFS ensemble mean below