KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, November 16, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 199.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 162.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +1.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 373.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.5%)
8:30 AM ET. October Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +1.2%; previous +0%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. October Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected -0.4%; previous -1.2%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.5%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -7.5%)
9:15 AM ET. October Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 80.4%; previous 80.3%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.2)
10:00 AM ET. September Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous +0.8%)
10:00 AM ET. November NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 36; previous 38)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 440.8M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.9M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 205.7M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.9M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 106.3M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.5M)
Refinery Usage (previous 92.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.267M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.786M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at 34,281.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32,350.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 33,987.06. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 34,281.36. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32,350.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31,077.25.
The December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,150.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,262.27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,150.94. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,547.94. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,481.09. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,262.27.
The December S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rebound off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4136.35. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3806.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4024.30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4136.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3806.52. Second support is November's low crossing at 3704.25.
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December T-bonds closed up 1.00-pts. at 124-21.
December T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-09 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-02 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-09. Second resistance is the October 4th high crossing at 129-12. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-02. Second support is October's low crossing at 117-19.
December T-notes closed up 145-pts. at 112.185.
December T-notes closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 113.300 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 113.300. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.172. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.238. Second support is November's low crossing at 109.105.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
December crude oil closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $84.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $95.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $95.45. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $96.15. First support is today's low crossing at $84.06. Second support is the October 18th low crossing at $81.30.
December heating oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4947 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at $4.0651 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $3.9565. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.0651. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4947. Second support is the October 21st low crossing at $3.4435.
December unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4647 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $2.6586 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $2.8172. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at $2.8638. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4647. Second support is the October 18th low crossing at $2.3526.
December Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening is possible when Wednesday's overnight session begins trading. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 4.382 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.887. Second resistance is the November 7th high crossing at 7.221. First support is the 62% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 5.393. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 4.382.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off September's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $104.650 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.282 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $109.183. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.282. First support is today's low crossing at $105.155. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $104.650.
The December Euro closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at $1.07137 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.99593 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1.05085. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at $1.07137 is the next upside target. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.01239. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.00314.
The December British Pound closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off September's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 1.2327 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1365 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.2041. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.2327. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1365. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.1156.
The December Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, August's high crossing at 1.07550 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01866 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.07275. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.02993. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01868.
The December Canadian Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 77.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance September's high crossing at 77.18. Second resistance is the August 25th high crossing at 77.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.39. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.82.
The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday extends the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 0.073241 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.068865 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 0.073241. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 0.074751. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.069796. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.068865.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
December gold closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, August's high crossing at $1824.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1715.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1791.80. Second resistance is August's high $1824.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1715.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1683.00.
December silver closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 22.448 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.113 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 22.380. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-September decline crossing at 22.448. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 21.070. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.113.
December copper closed lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0450 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4948 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.9600. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0450. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.6898. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.5635.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up $0.09 1/2-cents at $6.66 3/4.
December corn closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $6.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.80. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $7.00. First support is September's low crossing at $6.54. Second support is the August 26th low crossing at $6.47 1/4.
December wheat closed down $0.09 3/4-cents at $8.48.
December wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this month's decline, September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.63. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $9.04. First support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $7.43 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.06 3/4-cents at $9.63.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.93 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.93 1/2. First support is the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.96 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.11-cents at $9.74.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.66 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $9.33 would open the door for a larger-degree decline off October's high. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.94 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.66 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $9.33. Second support is the September 6th low crossing at $9.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans closed up $0.16 3/4-cents at $14.57 1/4.
January soybeans closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $14.76 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $14.76 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.15 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.21. is the October 19th low crossing at $13.66 3/4.
December soybean meal closed up $3.50 at $409.50.
December soybean meal post closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the October 18th low crossing at $398.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $423.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $443.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.10. Second support is the October 18th low crossing at $398.80.
December soybean oil closed up 75-pts. At 77.03.
December soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 79.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 78.64. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 79.29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.13. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.11.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed up $0.63 at $85.50.
December hogs closed higher on Tuesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $91.35 is the next upside target. Close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $83.36 confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at $89.80. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $91.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $83.36. Second support is the October 9th low crossing at $81.35.
December cattle closed down $0.35 at $151.23.
December cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $150.33 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $156.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $154.20. Second resistance is the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $156.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $150.33. Second support is the October 14th low crossing at $146.90.
January Feeder cattle closed down $2.53 at $176.93.
January Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If January extends today's decline, October's low crossing at $172.10 is the next downside target. If January renews the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $184.56 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $179.87. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $182.41. First support is today's low crossing at $176.33. Second support is October's low crossing at $172.10.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $14.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.64 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $18.34. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $20.98. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $14.74. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $13.04.
December cocoa closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the June 6thhigh crossing at 25.89 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off the October 28th low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, April's high crossing at 20.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.
December cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 97.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.03 would signal that a top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!