KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, December 13, 2022
6:00 AM ET. November NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 91.3)
8:30 AM ET. November Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. November CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +7.7%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)
10:00 AM ET. December IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 40.4)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 34.3)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -6.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.6M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Wednesday, December 14, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 204.2)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 175.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 340.8)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +4.7%)
8:30 AM ET. November Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous -0.2%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -1.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 413.898M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.186M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 219.087M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.319M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 118.807M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.159M)
Refinery Usage (previous 95.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.626M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.091M)
2:00 PM ET Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2022 (previous 4.4%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2023 (previous 4.6%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2024 (previous 3.9%)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 4.00)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 3.75)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 12)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 4.00)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.75)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
Thursday, December 15, 2022
8:30 AM ET. December Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 4.5)
Employment Idx (previous 12.2)
New Orders Idx (previous -3.3)
Prices Received (previous 27.2)
8:30 AM ET. December Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -19.4)
Prices Paid (previous 35.3)
Employment (previous 7.1)
New Orders (previous -16.2)
Prices Received (previous 34.6)
Delivery Times (previous -8.8)
Inventories (previous -6.5)
Shipments (previous 7.0)
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 230K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1671000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +62K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
9:15 AM ET. November Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 79.9%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.2)
10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.4%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3462B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -21B)
4:00 PM ET. October Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
N/A ISM Semiannual Report On Business Economic Forecast
Friday, December 16, 2022
9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 47.6)
9:45 PM ET. December US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 46.1)
10:00 AM ET. November State Employment and Unemployment
N/A Latest deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt. shutdown
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,884.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,557.54 would mark a downside breakout of the November-December trading range while opening the door for additional weakness possibly till the end of the year. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,229.32. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,618.87. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,557.54. Second support is the November 9th low crossing at 10,932.75.
The March S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3894.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4035.55 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October declinecrossing at 4153.96. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 4194.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3894.99. Second support is the November 9th low crossing at 3782.75.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates the correction off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128-00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 132-00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128-00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124-17.
March T-notes were higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.201 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.232 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 115.090. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.232. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.201. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.065.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Januarycrude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.89 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline November's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $63.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.89. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $82.82. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $70.08. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $63.80.
January heating oil was higher overnight as it extends Monday's short-covering rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1762 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.6219 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.0152. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1762. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $2.7647. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.6219.
January unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $1.9894 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.2723 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.1730. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.2723. First support is Monday's low crossing at $2.0204. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $1.9894.
January natural gas was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the August-November downtrend line crossing near 7.776 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.231 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7.058. Second resistance is the August-November downtrend line crossing near 7.776. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 6.391. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.500.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the November 30th high crossing at $106.775 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off September's high, the June 27th low crossing at $102.883 is the next downside target. First resistance is the November 30th high crossing at $106.775. Second resistance is the November 21st high crossing at $107.500. First support is the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $103.643. Second support is the June 27th low crossing at $102.883.
The March Euro was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remains neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at $1.08062 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05120 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1.06745. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at $1.08062. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05120. Second support is the November 21st low crossing at $1.03165.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the June 16th high crossing at 1.2424 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2111 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2318. Second resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1.2424. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2111. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1693.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the November 21st low, August's high crossing at 1.08700 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07250 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is August's high crossing at 1.08700. Second resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.10880. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07250. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.06060.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at $72.44 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $74.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $74.82. Second resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $75.16. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $73.12. Second support is November's low crossing at $72.58.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073386 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 0.076735 is the next upside target. First resistance is the December 2nd high crossing at 0.075820. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 0.076735. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073386. Second support is the November 21's low crossing at 0.071410.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Februarygold was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $1836.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1781.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1822.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1836.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1781.80. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at $1733.50.
March silver was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $24.779 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.166 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $23.503. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $24.779. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.166. Second support is the November 21st low crossing at $20.790.
March copper was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7442 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off the November 28th low, November's high crossing at 3.9470 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.9470. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0343. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7442. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5938.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.58 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off the October 31st high, the 62% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $6.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.58 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.75 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $6.23.
March wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.84 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $6.36 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.84 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.38 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $7.24 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $6.36 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.89 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at $8.11 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.29 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $8.21 3/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.11 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.35 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.35 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.56 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $8.90. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.49 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $15.12 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 21st high crossing at $14.93 1/2. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $15.12 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.49 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.25 3/4.
January soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January renews the rally off November's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $478.60 is the next upside target is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $444.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $474.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $478.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $444.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $425.50.
January soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends Monday's key reversal up as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.79 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 57.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 2nd gap crossing at 67.38. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.79. First support is Monday's low crossing at 58.94. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 57.11.
Thanks tallpine!
Weather is still extremely bullish ng:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/91385/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Bullish for wheat from the cold(though the precip is bearish)
Bullish for beans from dry wx in Argentina
