January 3rd, 2023 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
December of 2022 finished the year with a global tropospheric temperature anomaly of +0.05 deg. C above the 1991-2020 average, which was down from the November value of +0.17 deg. C.
The average anomaly for the year was +0.174 deg. C, making 2022 the 7th warmest year of the 44+ year global satellite record, which started in late 1978. Continuing La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean have helped to reduce global-average temperatures for the last two years. The 10 warmest years were:
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 continues at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
This weather pattern is telling me that the current La Nina is rapidly coming to an end.
The atmosphere is taking on the El Nino signature big time!
Regardless of what the models or Pacific ocean temp profiles indicate, the atmosphere is acting just like it does when we have El Nino in the Pacific.
I've not seen this configuration for several Winters.
Look at that jet stream roaring across the Pacific. The yellow is a 200+ knot jet streak which is 240+ MPH!
You rarely see that and it's usually during El Nino's in the Pacific. It's aimed at the US, which will flood the entire US with mild, oceanic air and bombard the entire West Coast with heavy precip all the way to S.California which is typical of El Nino NOT La Nina.
To me, this signals the end of the long lived La Nina!!
This should also bring a chance for drought relief in Argentina!
Ding, Dong the La Nina is dead, which La Nina, the 3 year old La Nina!
This will likely also mark the end of the multi year pause in the mostly beneficial global warming.
I predict that 2023 will be warmer with high confidence and there will likely be less drought in the US because of it.