KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, January 6, 2023
8:30 AM ET. December U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +180K; previous +263K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.7%; previous 3.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 32.82)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.18)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.55%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +5.09%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +42K)
Private Payroll (previous +221K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.1%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:00 AM ET. December ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (expected 55.1; previous 56.5)
Business Activity Idx (previous 64.7)
Prices Idx (previous 70.0)
Employment Idx (previous 51.5)
New Orders Idx (previous 56.0)
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected -1.0%; previous +1.0%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Monday, January 9, 2023
10:00 AM ET. December Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 117.65)
ETI, Y/Y%
3:00 PM ET. November Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +27.0B)
Tuesday, January 10, 2023
6:00 AM ET. December NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 91.9)
8:55 PM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. January IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 42.9)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 37.7)
10:00 AM ET. November Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
N/A World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report
Wednesday, January 11, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx
Composite Idx, W/W%
Purchase Idx-SA
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%
Refinance Idx
Refinance Idx, W/W%
10:00 AM ET. December Online Help Wanted Index
N/A EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Refinery Usage
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)
Total Prod Supplied, (Bbl/day) Net Chg
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 10,595.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,252.26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,252.26. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,488.95. First support is November's low crossing at 10,746.75. Second support is October's low crossing at 10,595.25.
The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3937.39 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 3735.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3937.39. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4155.39. First support is the November 9th low crossing at 3782.75. Second support is November's low crossing at 3735.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 128-12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 123-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128-12. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 132-15. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 124-31. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 123-06.
March T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.168 would signal that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 111.174 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.168. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 115.115. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 112.087. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 111.174.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Februarycrude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at $70.31 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $81.50 would renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.03. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.12. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $72.46. Second support is December's low crossing at $70.31.
February heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at $2.7517 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.2118 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.0888. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.1479. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $2.9200. Second support is December's low crossing at $2.7517.
February unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2529. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.2529 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the November 14th high crossing at $2.5783 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $2.5233. Second resistance is the November 14th high crossing at $2.5783. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.2529. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at $2.1157.
February natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.491 is the next downside target, Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.228 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.423. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.228. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.558. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.491.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $105.445 would mark an upside breakout of the December-January trading range. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $101.331 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $105.445. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.068. First support is the December 15th low crossing at $102.875. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $101.331.
The March Euro was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the December 7th low crossing at $1.05210 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off September's low, the March 31st high crossing at $1.09680 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at $1.08062. Second resistance is the March 31st high crossing at $1.09680. First support is the December 7th low crossing at $1.05210. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.04571.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 1.1697 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2145 would signal the a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2145. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.2477. First support is the November 17th low crossing at 1.1804. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 1.1697.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's downside breakout of December's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.06501 is the next downside target. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 1.08740 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.09665. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. First support is the December 6th low crossing at 1.07000. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.06501.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight while extending December's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at $72.58 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at $74.25 would mark a potential upside breakout of December's trading range. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $74.25. Second resistance is the December 5th high crossing at $74.82. First support is the December 20th low crossing at $73.04. Second support is November low crossing at $72.58.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075316 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's, the August high crossing at 0.078135 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 0.077935. Second resistance is the August high crossing at 0.078135. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075316. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.073157.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Februarygold was slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1818.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1915.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $1871.30. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1915.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1818.10. Second support is the December 15th low crossing at $1782.00.
March silver was lower overnight as it extends the correction off Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.794 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $24.779. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.794. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at $22.735.
March copper was slightly lower overnight while extending December's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off the November 28th low, the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0343 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7194 would confirm a downside breakout of December's trading range and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.9470. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0343. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7194. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at 3.6750.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the December 19th low crossing at $6.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.65 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is October's downtrend line crossing near $6.83 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. First support is is the December 19th low crossing at $6.44. Second support is December's low crossing at $6.35.
March wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $7.24 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.98 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $7.98. Second resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $8.20 1/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $7.24 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $6.36 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at $8.21 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.95 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.95 1/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August-2022 decline crossing at $9.50. First support is the December 19th low crossing at $8.30 3/4. Second support is the December 6th low crossing at $8.21 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the December 6th low crossing at $8.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.38 1/2 would open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.38 1/2. Second resistance is the November 15th high crossing at $9.91 1/4. First support is the December 19th low crossing at $9.00 3/4. Second support is the December 6th low crossing at $8.90.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.61 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.92 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the rally off October's low, last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.37 1/2. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.61 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at $14.31 3/4.
March soybean meal was a higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $478.60 is the next upside target is the next upside target. Closes below the December 19th low crossing at $443.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $476.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $478.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $457.40. Second support is the December 19th low crossing at $443.40.
March soybean oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the December 16th low crossing at 61.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.71 confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.71. Second resistance is broken support crossing at 67.52. First support is the December 16th low crossing at 61.47. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.50.