KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 10, 2023
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 65.1; previous 64.6)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 62.0)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.6)
Tuesday, February 14, 2023
6:00 AM ET. January NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 89.8)
8:30 AM ET. January CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -4.5%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +6.5%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)
8:30 AM ET. January Real Earnings
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.3%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.3%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.3M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,648.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews the rally off the January 20th low, January's high crossing at 34,342.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 34,342.32. Second resistance is the December 13th high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,648.39. Second support is the January 5th low crossing at 32,812.33.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,118.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 12,934.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,118.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,697.97.
The March S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4067.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4208.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4067.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3991.61.
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March T-bonds closed down 29/32's at 126-28.
March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 125-07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-31. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 132-22. First support is the January 5th low crossing at 126-15. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 125-07.
March T-notes closed down 105-pts. at 112.220.
March T-notes closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 111.280 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.168 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.043. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.168. First support is December's low crossing at 111.280. Second support is the November 3rd low crossing at 109.220.
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March crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off Monday's low, January's high crossing at $82.66 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at $76.52 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance is today's high crossing at $80.33. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.66. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $76.52. Second support is Monday's low crossing at $72.25.
March heating oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0365 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0365. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.0869. First support is Monday's low crossing at $2.6653. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401.
March unleaded gas closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5292 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.3787 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5292. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.7186. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.2720. Second support is January's low crossing at $2.2439.
March Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Friday as it extended this week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.786 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.786. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at 3.300. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.341. Second support is the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238.
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The March Dollar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $103.850 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at $105.500. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $103.850. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is February's low crossing at $100.680. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229.
The March Euro closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07453 opens the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at $1.05290. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08553 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $1.10590. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.14137. First support is today's low crossing at $1.06850. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.
The March British Pound closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2269 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends January's decline, January's low crossing at 1.1861 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2269. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2034. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.1861.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 1.06915 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1.10815. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.08020. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at 1.06915.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 75.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.21. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at 73.99.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the May 24th -2021 high crossing at 0.080525 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 0.075590 would open the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 0.074830. First resistance is February's high crossing at 0.078740. Second resistance is the January 17th high crossing at 0.079190. First support is January's low crossing at 0.074830. Second support is the December 15th low crossing at 0.073210.
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April gold closed slightly lower on Friday as it extended the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off last-Thursday's high, January's low crossing at 1846.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1923.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1923.40. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1975.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1872.10. Second support is the January low crossing at $1846.10.
March silver closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 21.177 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.350 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.350. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 24.750. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 22.028. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 21.177.
March copper closed lower on Friday and remains poised to extend the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9803 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1674 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1674. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9803. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.7085.
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March Corn closed up $0.09 3/4-cents at $6.80 1/2.
March corn posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Friday due to heighten tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below today's low crossing at $6.69 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at $6.88 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $6.69 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.65 1/4.
March wheat closed up $0.28 3/4-cents at $7.86.
March wheat closed sharply higher on Friday due to increase tensions in the Ukraine. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above last-Friday's high crossing at $7.76 1/2 confirms that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.50 1/2 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at $7.90. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. First support is January's low crossing at $7.12 1/2. Second support is the September 6th 2021 low crossing at $6.93 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.30-cents at $9.09.
March Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.17 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.64 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $9.13 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.17 3/4. First support 20-day moving average crossing at $8.64 1/4. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.11.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.13-cents crossing at $9.30 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $9.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at $8.85.
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March soybeans closed up $0.23 1/4-cents at $15.42 1/2.
March soybeans closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this year's rally. last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4 is the next upside target. closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.97 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at $15.48 1/2. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.97 1/4. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.78 1/4.
March soybean meal closed up $3.90 at $499.40.
March soybean meal closed higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off last-July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $480.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $501.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $480.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $464.90.
March soybean oil closed up 150-pts. At 60.52.
March soybean oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving a crossing at 61.29 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off the December 27th high, the 87% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 56.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.29. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.59. First support is Monday's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the 87% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 56.49.
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April hogs closed down $0.05 at $83.28.
April hogs closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $81.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the January 27th high crossing at $88.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.39. Second resistance is the January 27th high crossing at $88.33. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $81.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $81.15.
April cattle closed up $0.40 at $164.03.
April cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $162.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $164.60. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $163.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $162.05.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.43 at $186.40.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $184.19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $188.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $188.58. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $188.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $184.19. Second support is February's low crossing at $182.70.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $18.42. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.50.
March cocoa closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 25.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 25.07. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 22.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends the November-February trading range. Multiple closes below Monday's low crossing at 83.07 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, January's low crossing at 80.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the November 16th high crossing at 89.92 would mark an upside breakout of the November-February trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 93.37.
Thanks much tallpine!
Are the lows finally in for natural gas??