KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 24, 2023
8:30 AM ET. January Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:00 AM ET. January New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 616K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 9.0)
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 64.9)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 62.7)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.9%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.4)
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The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 32,396.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,832.06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,598.66. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 34,334.70. First support is today's low crossing at 32,795.67. Second support is the December 22nd low crossing at 32,573.43.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,778.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,405.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,405.12. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 12,992.75. First support is the January 31st low crossing at 11,871.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,779.17.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3999.18 would open the door for a possible test of the January 19th low crossing at 3901.75. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4101.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4101.95. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. First support is today's low crossing at 3974.25. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at 3901.75.
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March T-bonds closed up 12/32's at 124-30.
March T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 126-01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-31. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10.
March T-notes closed up 50-pts. at 111.115.
March T-notes closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.068 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.013. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.068. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035.
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April crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, February's low crossing at $72.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.79 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $80.78. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $73.80. Second support is February's low crossing at $72.64.
April heating oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of last-week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.8485 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.8485. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9250. First support is February's low crossing at $2.6350. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732.
April unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, February's low crossing at 2.4671 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6527 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6527. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 2.7303. First support is today's low crossing at 2.5219. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.4671.
April Henry natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the February 15th high crossing at 2.693 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off November's high, the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target.First resistance is the February 15th high crossing at 2.693. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at 3.256. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2.113. Second support is the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $105.500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.125 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $104.735. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.125. Second support is February's low crossing at $100.680.
The March Euro closed slightly lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07765 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07765. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1.10590. First support is today's low crossing at $1.05870. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.
The March British Pound closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2187 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews February's decline, January's low crossing at 1.1861 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2187. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1920. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.1861.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 1.06915 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08743 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.09750. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. First support is today's low crossing at 1.07140. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at 1.06915.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's decline.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 73.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 2ndhigh crossing at 75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 75.71. First support is today's low crossing at 73.64. Second support is January's low crossing at 73.10.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076102 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.075131. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076102. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710.
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April gold closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1811.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1886.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1854.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1878.30. First support is today's low crossing at $1824.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60.
March silver closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 20.326 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.476 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 21.784. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.476. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 21.177. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 20.326.
March copper closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0246 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285. If March extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, January's high crossing at 4.3550 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.2370. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0246. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285.
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May Corn closed down $0.015-cents at $6.59 1/4.
May corn closed sharply lower on Thursday as it is headed for the bottom of the December-February trading range crossing at $6.48 1/4. The USDA's outlook forum estimated this year's corn acreage at 91 million acres, which was close to the pre-report trade average. Applying general silage and abandonment along with trendline yields estimated this coming year's corn crop at 15.085 billion bushels and a projected carryout of 1.887 bullion bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, the bottom of the December-February trading range crossing at $6.48 1/4 is the next line of key support. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.76 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at $6.86. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.93 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $6.57 1/2. Second support is the bottom of the December-February trading range crossing at $6.48 1/4.
May wheat closed up $0.00 1/2-cents at $7.50 1/2.
May wheat posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at $7.20 3/4 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.14 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $8.07 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.14 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $7.46 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $7.20 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.12 3/4-cents at $8.56 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower for the third day in a row on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.57 1/2 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.13 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.13 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support 50-day moving average crossing at $8.57 1/2. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.06 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.05-cents crossing at $9.04.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at $8.80 1/4 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $9.28 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.38. First support is today's low crossing at $9.03. Second support is January's low crossing at $8.80 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down $0.07 1/2-cents at $15.27 1/4.
May soybeans closed lower on Thursday and filled Tuesday's gap at $15.27. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-year's low, the contract high crossing at $15.67 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.07 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $15.49 3/4. Second resistance is the contract high crossing at $15.67 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.07 3/4. Second support is the February 8th low crossing at $15.00 1/4.
May soybean meal closed up $0.50 at $478.00.
May soybean meal closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $474.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $488.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $474.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $460.90.
May soybean oil closed down 87-pts. At 62.18.
May soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, the January 18th high crossing at 64.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 64.37. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at 66.17. First support is February's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the 75% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 58.36.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.43 at $86.13.
April hogs closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.64 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.70 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $89.88. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $95.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.64. Second support is February's low crossing at $81.28.
April cattle closed up $0.35 at $165.43.
April cattle closed higher on Thursday and posted a new contract high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $166.10. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $161.98.
May Feeder cattle closed up $2.23 at $197.85.
May Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $210.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $193.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $197.95. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $210.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $193.17. Second support is February's low crossing at $191.65.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $19.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $19.54. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $20.78. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.85. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.87.
May cocoa closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 29.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 22.64 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 19.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
May cotton closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 78.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.96 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.