KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Wednesday, May 17, 2023   

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 227.8)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +6.3%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 173.7)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +4.8%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 507.1)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +10.0%)

8:30 AM ET. April New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

                       Total Starts (previous 1.420M)

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -0.8%)

                       Building Permits (previous 1.413M)

                       Building Permits, M/M% (previous -8.8%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 462.584M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.951M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 219.711M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.167M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 106.153M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.17M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 91.0%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.164M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.359M)

Thursday, May 18, 2023  

8:30 AM ET. May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous -31.3)

                       Prices Paid (previous 8.2)

                       Employment (previous -0.2)

                       New Orders (previous -22.7)

                       Prices Received (previous -3.3)

                       Delivery Times (previous -25.0)

                       Inventories (previous -17.9)

                       Shipments (previous -7.3)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (previous 264K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +22K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1813000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +12K)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

10:00 AM ET. April Existing Home Sales

                       Existing Sales (previous 4.44M)

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -2.4%)

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.6)

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 375700)

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous -0.9%)

10:00 AM ET. April Leading Indicators

                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous -1.2%)

                       Leading Index

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.2%)

10:00 AM ET. 1^st Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2141B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +78B)

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

Friday, May 19, 2023   

10:00 AM ET. 1^st Quarter Advance Quarterly Services

10:00 AM ET. April State Employment and Unemployment

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading set the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of 2022's decline crossing at 13,634.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,236.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 13,554.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2022's decline crossing at 13,634.26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,236.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,002.16.  

The June S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it extends the April-May trading range. Overnight strength sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the May 1^st high crossing at 4206.25 or below the May 4^th low crossing at 4062.25 are needed to mark a breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the May 1^st high crossing at 4206.25. Second resistance February's high crossing at 4244.00. First support is the May 4^th low crossing at 4062.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3984.29.

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline while remaining within the March-May trading range. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 1^st low crossing at 129-02 would mark a downside breakout of the March-May trading range thereby opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the May 4^th high crossing at 133-00 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at 134-14. First resistance is the May 4^th high crossing at 133-00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 134-14. First support is the May 1^st low crossing at 129-02. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 128-08.  

June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Tuesday's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.034 signals that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 114.100 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 115.166 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the May 11^th high crossing at 116.160. Second resistance is the May 4^th high crossing at 117.000. First support is May's low crossing at 114.100. Second support is the April 19^th low crossing at 113.305.

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

ENERGIES:Junecrude oil was slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.72 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews  last-week's decline, the March 24^th low crossing at $67.02 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.72. Second resistance is the April 24^th high crossing at $79.18. First support is the March 24^th low crossing at $67.02. Second support is the May 4^th low crossing at $63.64.    

June heating oil was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.3709 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.1217 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.3709. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4927. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.1217. Second support is the the November-29, 2021 low crossing at 1.9476.

June unleaded gas was higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $2.5155 would renew the rally off May's low. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.4476 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $2.5155. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5601. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.4476. Second support is May's low crossing at $2.2500.      

June natural gas was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.441 would open the door for additional short-covering gains. If June renews the decline off March's high, the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.441. Second resistance is the April 19^th high crossing at 2.543. First support is the May 5^th low crossing at 2.031. Second support is the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight and is poised to breakout to the topside of the April-May trading range. Overnight trading and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 3^rd high crossing at $102.745 would mark a potential upside target of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.611 temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the April 3^rd high crossing at $102.745. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 103.594. First support is the April 14^thlow crossing at 100.420. Second support is February's low crossing at 100.345.

The June Euro was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.07774 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.09989 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.09989. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $1.11290. First support is April's low crossing at $1.08355. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.07774.  

The June British Pound was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2412 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off the March 8^th low, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2784 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 10^th high crossing at 1.2692. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2784. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2412. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.2293.    

The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.11416 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes the rally off the March low, the May-2021 high crossing at 1.14120 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.12630. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.13940. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.11416. Second support is the April 10^th low crossing at 1.10495.

The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.88 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $74.41 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $74.41. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $75.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.88. Second support is April's low crossing at $73.23.  

The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the May 4^th high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off the March's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072908 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075534 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074499. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075534. First support is the May 2^nd low crossing at 0.073055. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072908.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

Junegold was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June the decline off May's high, the 25% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1981.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $2024.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2024.10. Second resistance is the May 4^th high crossing at $2085.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1994.70. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1981.40.  

July silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $23.289 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.185 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.185. Second resistance is the May 5^th high crossing at $26.435. First support is the 50% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $23.289. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $22.541.  

July copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.6247 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8559 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8559. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9638. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.6525. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.6247.  

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

July corn was lower overnight and is poised to test the lower boundary of this month's trading range crossing at $5.69 1/4. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off April's high, the December-2021 low crossing at $5.48 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the May 8^th high crossing at $6.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 8^th high crossing at $6.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.10 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.71 3/4. Second support is the December-2021 low crossing at $5.48 3/4.

July wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.76 1/2 is the next upside target. If July resumes the decline off March's high the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $6.69. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.76 1/2. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $6.17. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71.

July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.17 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $9.15 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.17 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.24.

July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the April 18^th high crossing at $8.95 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.32 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 18^th high crossing at $8.95 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $9.13 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.32 1/2. Second support is the May 3^rd low crossing at $7.69.     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

July soybeans were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $13.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.14 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.14 1/4. Second resistance is the May 8^th high crossing at $14.44 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $13.53 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $13.31.

July soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $411.90 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's highcrossing at $442.30 would renew the rally off May's low while opening the door for a test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $446.70. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $442.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $446.70. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $416.10. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $411.90.

July soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 46.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.75 would signal that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 54.04. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 54.04. First support is the overnight low crossing at 46.88. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 46.42.