KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Wednesday, June 14, 2023 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 194.7)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.4%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 151.7)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.7%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 409.7)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -0.7%)

8:30 AM ET. May PPI

                       PPI, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous +0.2%)

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.4%)

10:00 AM ET. SEC Small Business Advisory Committee

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 459.205M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.452M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 218.815M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.745M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 111.731M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.074M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 95.8%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.221M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.221M)

2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections

                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2022

                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2023 (previous 5.1%)

                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2024 (previous 4.3%)

2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision

                       Federal Funds Rate

                       Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)

                       Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 5.25)

                       Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 5.00)

                       FOMC Vote For Action (previous 11)

                       FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)

                       Discount Rate (previous 5.25

                       Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.25)

                       Discount Rate-Range High

                       Discount Rate-Range Low

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday after inflation data showed prices rose less than expected in May, likely triggering a pause in the Federal Reserve's rate hiking expectation on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 34,342.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,395.54 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 34,310.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 34,342.32. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 33,646.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,394.95.  

The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last-December's low. Profit taking in the afternoon session tempered early-session gains and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If September extends this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,202.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,389.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 15,151.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,202.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,389.85. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,755.25.  

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4505.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4274.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4423.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4505.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4329.15. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4274.27.      

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September T-bonds closed down 21/32's at 126-15. 

September T-bonds posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the March- April rally crossing at 124-19 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 128-16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 128-16. Second resistance is the June 1^st high crossing at 129-16. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 125-30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March- April rally crossing at 124-19.

September T-notes closed down 170-pts. At 112.265.

September T-notes posted a huge key reversal down as it closed sharply lower on Tuesday due to a slowdown in inflation. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 112.190 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.014 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.014. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 115.000. First support is the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 112.190. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 111.243.  

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

July crude oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 31^st low crossing at $67.03 would open the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at $63.90. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $73.28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $75.06. Second resistance is the April 28^th high crossing at $76.74. First support is Monday's low crossing at $66.80. Second support is May's low crossing at $63.90.  

July heating oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4204 would mark an upside breakout of the May-June trading range. Today's close below Monday's low crossing at $2.2970 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the May 31^st low crossing at $2.2238. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4204. Second resistance is the April 24^th high crossing at $2.5332. First support is the May 31^st low crossing at $2.2268. Second support is May's low crossing at $2.1550. 

July unleaded gas posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends Monday's decline, the June 1^st low crossing at 2.4016 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 2.6958 is the next upside target. First resistance last-Thursday's high crossing at 2.6822. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 2.6958. First support is the June low crossing at 2.4016. Second support is the May 15^th low crossing at 2.3565.    

July Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.467 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off March's high, the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.397. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.467. First support is the June 1^st low crossing at 2.136. Second support is the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795. 

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The September Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.042 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the March 15^th high crossing at 104.250 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 15^th high crossing at 104.250. Second resistance is the March 8^th high crossing at 104.730. First support is today's low crossing at 102.525. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.042.   

The September Euro closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08220 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1.06472 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08220. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.09600. First support is May's low crossing at $1.07025. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1.06472.

The September British Pound closed higher on Tuesday negating Monday's key reversal down. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 1.2705 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.2100 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.2643. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.2705. First support is May's low crossing at 1.2333. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.2316. 

The September Swiss Franc posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.10197 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.12848 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.12848. Second resistance is the May 4^th high crossing at 1.14920. First support is the 38% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.10197. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.08741. 

The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Tuesday and spiked above the upper boundary of the April-June trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the November 11^th -2022 high crossing at 75.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 75.31. Second resistance is the November-2022 high crossing at 75.91. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.374.  

The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.070777 is the next downside target. Closes above the June 1^st high crossing at 0.073430 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 1^st high crossing at 0.073430. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.074939. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072174. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.070777.    

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

August gold closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1941.90. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2014.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 1^st high crossing at $2000.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2014.90. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1941.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1892.30.  

July silver posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.720 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 22.546 is the next downside target. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.696 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 24.620. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.696. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 22.546. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 21.708.  

July copper closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8510 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the May 8^th high crossing at 3.9595. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7104 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8510. Second resistance is the May 8^th high crossing at 3.9595. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7104. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5450.

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

September Corn closed up $0.02 1/2-cents at $5.46. 

September corn closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May's low due to growing concerns over a drought, which has gripped much of the corn/soybean belt of the Midwest. Profit taking ahead of the closed tempered some of today's gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 38%% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $5.68 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.14 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $5.68 1/4. Second resistance is the April 14^th high crossing at $5.79. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.30 3/4. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.14 1/2. 

September wheat closed up $0.02-cents at $6.48.  

September wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.57 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at $6.69 later this week. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.23 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.57 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $6.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.23 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.87 3/4.  

September Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.03 1/2-cents at $7.90 1/4.

September Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $7.61 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.20 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.20 3/4. Second resistance is the May 6^th high crossing at $8.41. First support is the May 31^st low crossing at $7.61 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.33.

September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.05 1/4-cents crossing at $8.09 1/2.

September Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the May 31^st low crossing at $7.78 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.34 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.34 1/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $8.39 3/4. First support is the May 31^st low crossing at $7.78 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.71 3/4.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

July soybeans closed up $0.26 1/2-cents at $13.99 1/4.

July soybeans closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $14.46 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.42 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.02 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $14.46 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.42 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at $12.70 3/4.  

July soybean meal closed up $0.10 at $397.50. 

July soybean meal closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $365.60 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $408.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $408.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $425.80. First support is May's low crossing at $386.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $365.60. 

July soybean oil closed up 145-pts. at 55.43. 

July soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off May's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, April's high crossing at 57.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 18^th high crossing at 56.21. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 57.51. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.74. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.36. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

August hogs closed up $1.43 at $91.05. 

August hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $91.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 18^th high crossing at $88.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $91.25. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $81.30. Second support is the May 31^st gap crossing at $78.80.    

August cattle closed up $0.73 at $173.93. 

August cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews this year's rally unto uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. If August renews the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $169.57 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $178.10. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $170.95. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $169.57.      

August Feeder cattle closed up $1.40 at $240.45. 

August Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, the October-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $245.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $237.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $245.18. Second resistance is the October-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $245.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $237.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $230.50. 

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed lower for the third day in a row on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Friday's high, May's low crossing at $17.32 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $19.18 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at $20.18. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $19.18. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $19.64. First support is May's low crossing at $17.32. Second support is March's low crossing at $16.44.  

September cocoa closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 34.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.    

October sugar closed lower on Tuesday, The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 24.01 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If October renews last-week's rally, the May 23^rd high crossing at 26.39 is the next upside target.          

December cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the May 25^th low, May's high crossing at 84.30 is the next upside target. Closes below today's low crossing at 80.71 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the May 25^th low crossing at 78.45.