KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, June 15, 2023
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 245K; previous 261K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +28K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1757000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -37K)
8:30 AM ET. May Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected -0.5%; previous +0.4%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.1%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +5.7%)
8:30 AM ET. June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected -14.8; previous -10.4)
Prices Paid (previous 10.9)
Employment (previous -8.6)
New Orders (previous -8.9)
Prices Received (previous -7.0)
Delivery Times (previous -9.3)
Inventories (previous 6.4)
Shipments (previous -4.7)
8:30 AM ET. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (expected -16.0; previous -31.8)
Employment Idx (previous -3.3)
New Orders Idx (previous -28.0)
Prices Received (previous 23.6)
8:30 AM ET. May Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected -0.2%; previous +0.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
9:15 AM ET. May Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.5%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 79.6%; previous 79.7%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.3)
10:00 AM ET. April Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.2%; previous -0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2550B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +104B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:00 PM ET. April Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
N/A Delaware Separation Day holiday
Friday, June 16, 2023
10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 60.2; previous 57.7)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 53.4)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 64.5)
10:00 AM ET. May State Employment and Unemployment
Monday, June 19, 2023
10:00 AM ET. June NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 50)
N/A U.S.: Juneteenth. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply lower on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday, but officials signaled they are prepared to raise rates again this year to tame stubborn inflation. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 34,342.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,444.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 34,310.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 34,342.32. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 33,757.89. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,444.62.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If September extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,469.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 15,216.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,469.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,791.81.
The September S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4505.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4287.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4439.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4505.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4349.12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4287.99.
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September T-bonds closed up 21/32's at 126-29.
September T-bonds posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the March- April rally crossing at 124-19 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 128-16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 128-16. Second resistance is the June 1st high crossing at 129-16. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 125-30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March- April rally crossing at 124-19.
September T-notes closed up 75-pts. At 112.290.
September T-notes closed higher on Thursday leaving yesterday's huge key reversal down unconfirmed. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 111.243 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.286 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.286. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 115.000. First support is the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 112.190. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 111.243.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $66.80 would open the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at $63.90. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $73.28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $75.06. Second resistance is the April 28th high crossing at $76.74. First support is Monday's low crossing at $66.80. Second support is May's low crossing at $63.90.
July heating oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4156 would mark an upside breakout of the May-June trading range. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $2.2970 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the May 31st low crossing at $2.2238. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4156. Second resistance is the April 24th high crossing at $2.5332. First support is the May 31st low crossing at $2.2268. Second support is May's low crossing at $2.1550.
July unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends Monday's decline, the June 1st low crossing at 2.4016 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 2.6958 is the next upside target. First resistance last-Thursday's high crossing at 2.6822. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 2.6958. First support is the June low crossing at 2.4016. Second support is the May 15th low crossing at 2.3565.
July Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.462 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off March's high, the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.388. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.462. First support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.136. Second support is the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.072 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the March 15th high crossing at 104.250 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 15th high crossing at 104.250. Second resistance is the March 8th high crossing at 104.730. First support is today's low crossing at 102.235. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.072.
The September Euro closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.09566 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1.06472 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.09566. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.11770. First support is May's low crossing at $1.07025. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1.06472.
The September British Pound closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.2729 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2483 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.2716. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.2729. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2483. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.2333.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.12844 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.10197 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.12844. Second resistance is the May 4th high crossing at 1.14920. First support is the 38% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.10197. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.08741.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the November 11th -2022 high crossing at 75.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 75.46. Second resistance is the November-2022 high crossing at 75.91. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.88. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.39.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.070777 is the next downside target. Closes above the June 1st high crossing at 0.073430 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 1st high crossing at 0.073430. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.074834. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072174. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.070777.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1941.90. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2013.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 1st high crossing at $2000.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2013.90. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1941.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1892.30.
July silver posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.732 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 22.546 is the next downside target. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.695 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 24.620. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.692. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 22.546. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 21.708.
July copper closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8471 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the May 8th high crossing at 3.9595. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7198 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8471. Second resistance is the May 8th high crossing at 3.9595. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7198. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5450.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
September Corn closed down $0.01-cents at $5.45 3/4.
September corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 38%% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $5.68 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.14 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $5.68 1/4. Second resistance is the April 14th high crossing at $5.79. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.33 3/4. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.14 1/2.
September wheat closed down $0.06 3/4-cents at $6.41 1/4.
September wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.56 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at $6.69 later this week. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.23 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.56. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $6.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.23 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.87 3/4.
September Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.08-cents at $7.82 1/4.
September Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the May 31st low crossing at $7.61 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.18 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.18 3/4. Second resistance is the May 6th high crossing at $8.41. First support is the May 31st low crossing at $7.61 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.33.
September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.01 3/4-cents crossing at $8.07 3/4.
September Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the May 31st low crossing at $7.78 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.32 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.32 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $8.39 3/4. First support is the May 31st low crossing at $7.78 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.71 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans closed down $0.11-cents at $13.89 1/2.
July soybeans posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $14.46 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.00 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $14.46 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.44. Second support is May's low crossing at $12.70 3/4.
July soybean meal closed down $7.80 at $389.70.
July soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $365.60 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $408.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $408.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $424.40. First support is May's low crossing at $386.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $365.60.
July soybean oil closed up 53-pts. at 55.95.
July soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off May's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, April's high crossing at 57.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 18th high crossing at 56.21. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 57.51. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.73. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.78.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $2.48 at $89.90.
August hogs gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $91.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $91.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $91.25. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $81.30. Second support is the May 31st gap crossing at $78.80.
August cattle closed down $2.98 at $170.95.
August cattle posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Wednesday extending the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $169.57 is the next downside target. If August renews this year's rally unto uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $178.10. Second resistance is unknown. First support is today's low crossing at $170.95. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $169.57.
August Feeder cattle closed down $4.58 at $235.88.
August Feeder cattle posted a key reversal down and closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, the October-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $245.20 is the next upside target. If August extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $230.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $241.90. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $245.18. First support is today's low crossing at $235.55. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $230.80.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Friday's high, May's low crossing at $17.32 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $19.18 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at $20.18. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $19.18. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $19.64. First support is May's low crossing at $17.32. Second support is March's low crossing at $16.44.
September cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 34.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Wednesday, The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews last-week's rally, the May 23rd high crossing at 26.39 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 24.01 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.
December cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the May 25th low crossing at 78.45 is the next upside target. If December renews the rally off the May 25th low, May's high crossing at 84.30 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!
12z EE was drier after the close so we're up in early trading:
