KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Wednesday, June 21, 2023  

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 208.8)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +7.2%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 163.2)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +7.6%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 434.1)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +6.0%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +0.5%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +0.4%)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.0M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.1M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.4M)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow gapped down and closed lower on Tuesday as investors awaited fresh comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and eyed potential headwinds to the recent rally, including concerns about the Chinese economy. Traders are also cautious ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's two-day testimony to a House committee to start Wednesday as they will be watching for any clues as to whether or not policymakers will resume their rate-hiking campaign in July. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to modestly lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off May's low, the December-2022 high crossing at 34,712.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,569.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 34,588.68. Second resistance is the December-2022 high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34,004.26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,569.30.  

The September NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If September extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,673.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 15,475.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,673.36. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,912.64.  

The September S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4505.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4320.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4493.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4505.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4392.75. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4320.51.      

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September T-bonds closed up 24/32's at 128-03. 

September T-bonds posted an outside day up on Tuesday as it extends June's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 129-12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 124-19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129-12. Second resistance is the May 11^th high crossing at 132-13. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 125-30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March- April rally crossing at 124-19.

September T-notes closed up 85-pts. At 113.100.

September T-notes closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 114.000 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 111.243 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 114.000. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 115.000. First support is the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 112.190. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 111.243.  

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

August crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.36 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $66.96 would open the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at $63.90. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.36. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $75.70. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $66.96. Second support is May's low crossing at $64.41.  

August heating oil closed lower on Tuesday as demand based fears sidelined last-week's rally at least for the near-term. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends last-week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 2.6107 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $2.2876 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 24^th high crossing at 2.5349. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 2.6107. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $2.2876. Second support is the May 31^st low crossing at $2.2301.  

August unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 2.5766 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.4415 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance last-Friday's high crossing at 2.5905. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 2.6394. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 2.3901. Second support is June's low crossing at 2.3394. 

August Henry natural gas posted an outside day down as it closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends last-week's rally, the May 19^th high crossing at 2.885 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off March's high, the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target.First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.783. Second resistance is the May 19^th high crossing at 2.885. First support is the June 1^st low crossing at 2.244. Second support is the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795. 

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The September Dollar closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 100.340 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.096 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.096. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 104.205. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 101.585. Second support is May's low crossing at 100.340.   

The September Euro closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 1.11710. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08365 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $1.10225. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.11710. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.08365. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.07025. 

The September British Pound closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2524 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.2863. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2524. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.2333.  

The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday but remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.12877. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.10197 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 1.14920 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.13410. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.14920. First support is the 38% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.10197. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.08741. 

The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 76.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 75.99. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 76.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.66.  

The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.070777 is the next downside target. Closes above the June 1^st high crossing at 0.073430 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 1^st high crossing at 0.073430. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.074479. First support is today's low crossing at 0.071735. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.070777.    

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

August gold closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1892.30. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2008.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 1^st high crossing at $2000.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2008.80. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1941.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1892.30.  

July silver closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 22.546 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.605 would open the door for additional strength near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.605. Second resistance is the May 10^th high crossing at 26,200. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 22.546. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 21.708.  

July copper closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May 8^th high crossing at 3.9595 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7379 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 8^th high crossing at 3.9595. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.0050. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7457. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5450.

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

September Corn closed down $0.01-cents at $5.93. 

September corn closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the February 13^th high crossing at $6.13 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $5.93 3/4. Second resistance is the February 13^th high crossing at $6.13 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.50 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.35. 

September wheat closed up $0.07 1/4-cents at $7.08 3/4.  

September wheat closed higher for the third day in a row on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the April 18^th high crossing at $7.26 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.39 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 18^th high crossing at $7.26 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $7.46. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.55 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.39 1/2.  

September Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.04 1/2-cents at $8.34 1/2.

September Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 6^th high crossing at $8.41 would open the door for a possible test of May's May's high crossing at $9.02. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.04 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 6^th high crossing at $8.41. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $9.02. First support is the May 31^st low crossing at $7.61 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.33.

September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.04 1/2-cents crossing at $8.52.

September Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-week's rally, May's high crossing at $8.89 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $8.01 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.63 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $8.89 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $8.01 1/.4 Second support is the May 31^st low crossing at $7.78 1/4.   

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans closed up $0.00 1/2-cents at $13.42 3/4.

November soybeans close fractionally higher as it extended the rally off May's low on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at $13.86 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.43 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at $13.64 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $13.86 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.43 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.09 1/4.  

July soybean meal closed down $3.60 at $412.80. 

July soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $421.90 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at $442.30. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $365.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $421.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $442.30. First support is May's low crossing at $386.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $365.60. 

July soybean oil closed down 6-pts. at 59.63. 

July soybean oil closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, March's high crossing at 61.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 60.24. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 61.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 55.15. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.96. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

August hogs closed up $2.53 at $93.20. 

August hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $95.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $83.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $95.45. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $100.14. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $87.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $83.45.    

August cattle closed down $2.03 at $169.70. 

August cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $165.45 is the next downside target. If August renews this year's rally unto uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $174.40. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $178.10. First support is today's low crossing at $169.43. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $169.45.      

August Feeder cattle closed down $2.78 at $232.15. 

August Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $231.60 would open the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at $221.15. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $241.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $241.90. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $245.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $231.60. Second support is May's low crossing at $221.15. 

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $17.32 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $18.42 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $18.42. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $19.17. First support is May's low crossing at $17.32. Second support is March's low crossing at $16.44.  

September cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 34.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.    

October sugar closed slightly lower on Tuesday, The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's  rally, the May 11^th high crossing at 26.39 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 24.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 24.01.           

December cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.43 would signal that a low has been posted. If December extends last-week's decline, the May 25^th low crossing at 78.45 is the next upside target.